多維聯(lián)合概率理論在防洪工程中的應(yīng)用及風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析.pdf

1、9S0593分類號密級⑨研究生學(xué)位論文多維聯(lián)合概率理論在防洪工程中的應(yīng)用及風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析申請學(xué)位級別研究生姓名逯≯壘軍指導(dǎo)教師姓名文IJ德輔墼捶碩士專業(yè)名稱港口、海岸及近海王矍詮它答擗日期2006年5／UUO月論文答辯日期平盟20日學(xué)位授予日期2006生魚旦中國海洋大學(xué)MultivariableJointProbabilityTheoryBasedDefenceFloodandRiskAnalysisAbstractChinaThreeGor

2、gesProjectisnotonlythelargestwatercontrolprojectintheworldbutalsothekeyprojectforexploitationandmanagementoftheYangtzeRiverItsdesignfloodpeakandvolumearerelatedtothesafetyofthemiddleanddowuriverplainsagainstfloodcatastro

3、pheThemiddleanddowuriverareaisadenselypopulatedandeconomicallydevelopedarea，inwhichYichang，Wuhan，Jiujiang，Wuhu，Nanjing，Zhenjiang，Nantong，ShanghaiandotherlargeandmediumsizedcitiesarelocatedSothatdesignfloodoftheThreeGorge

4、sProjectisthemostimportantproblemforlivesandpropertiesofhundredsmillionspeopleYangtzeRiverfloodresultsfromrainstormsandupperfiverfloodaboveYichangaccountsforthemainpartofthemiddleanddownriverflood，sohowwecanreasonablypre

5、dictmajortributariesfloodoftheupperRiveristhekeyproblemtodesignfloodforthisprojectThemultivariablejointprobabilitytheoryisappliedtodesignfloodoftheThreeGorgesdamforthefirsttimeAndthestochasticsimulationtechniqueisusedtoc

6、alculatefourvariablesjointprobabilitydistributionThedifferentcombinationandthemostadversecombinationofmajortributariesfloodoreobtainedandcorrespondingdesignfloodofdifferentjointreturnperiodsarecalculatedTheresultscanbeus

7、edtiskanalysisandfloodcontrolofthisprojectTheThreeGorgesprojectisenormouslyinvestedandtechnicallycomplicatedThetmpredictedinterferencefactors，internalandextemal，arecalledengineeringrisk，whichexistfromprojectdetermination

8、，designtoimplementationofthewholeprocessThispaperonlyconsiderstheuncertaintyofdesignfloodresultedbyvariousrandomfactorsinthefloodfrequencycalculation，andthentheriskanalysisofdesignfloodoftheThreeGorgesiscalculatedbythree