基于作物模型的河北省玉米生產(chǎn)潛力和氣候風(fēng)險分析.pdf

1、Y“08489分類號密級單位代碼：10019。學(xué)號：B00108絮嚼差專式普博士學(xué)位論文基于作物模型的河北省玉米生產(chǎn)潛力和氣候風(fēng)險分析PotentialProductivityandClimaticRiskAnalysisofMaizeinHebeiProvinceAidedbyCropGrowthModel研究指導(dǎo)教向：院：資源與環(huán)境學(xué)院2007年5月名方學(xué)業(yè)究在專研所AbstractAcasestudyofHebeiprovince

2、，themainmaizeproductareawasconductedinthisstudyFieldexperimentsofthreeconsequentlyyearsofsummermaizewereperformedandthecropmodel，PSl23，Wasmodified，Aquantifiedregionalanalysisofpotentialproductionandclimaticriskofmaizepro

3、ductionWaShandledaidedbymodifiedmodelandGISsoftwareThroughthreeconsequentlycropseaSonsoffieldexperimentsofsummermaize，thegrowthanddevelopmentofmaizeundervariouswaterigigationandsalinityWaSstudied，includingitsdevelopments

4、tage，leafdevelopmentdynamicsofleavesarea，anddynamicsofdrymatteraccumulationofeachorgan，suchasroot，stem，Jeaecobs，andthefinaleconomicyieldAtthesametime，thechangeofsoilwateranditssalinitycontentduringcropseasonunderdifferen

5、ttreatmentwasanalyzedTheseexperimentaldatawereusedtocalibrateaquantitativecropgrowthsimulationmodel(PSl23)Modulesforcalculatingdaysofemergencestage，dynamicsofsoilsalinitywereimprovedMoreparameterscanbecalculateasoutputwi

6、thupdatedversionofthemodel，andscenariosofmultiplesitemultipleyearscmbecalculateinonlyollerimTheaccuracyofsimulationwithupdatedmodelwastestedusingonsiteexperimentaldataAccordingtequirementsofsealingupthecropmodel，spatiald

7、ataweatherdatastatisticdataandregionaltrialdatainHebeiprovincewerecollectedandhandledThespatiaIdatabasewassetupunderGISsuppoaThecalibratedmodelandstatistictoolswereusedforregionalanalysisofpotentialproductionandclimaticr

8、isk，Potentialproduction，includingphototemperaturepotentialproductionandrainfedpotentialproductionWereinvestigatedanddroughtriskincludingdrought砒seedlingstage。merganceandinthewholecropgrowthstage，whichweremosttypicalforth

9、estudiedregionwerestudiedThemainconclusionsfromregionalapplicationofcropmodelincludedthefollowingaSpects：IPhototemperaturepotentialproductioninmostageawasabove10000kghm2foramultiyearaveragelevel，Inmostyears，itwasaround13

10、000kghm。Therain—fedpotentialproductionWaSinfluencedgreatlybysoiltypeanditvariedgreatlyamongdifferentregions一2ThemainlimitclimaticfactorsvariedamongdifferentregionsWateristhemostimportantlimitfactorsinallregions。whilethei

11、nfluencefromsunshineandtemperaturediffers3RainfallcannotprovideenoughwaterformaizeproductionandproperirrigationshouldbegiveninallplacesofstudiedregionTheactualyieldwasonly1／3ofthesimulatedlintyieldSOthatthereisstillalarg

12、eyieldgaptobeshoaened4ClimaticriskwasratherhighinHebeiprovinceandrainfallWasthemostcriticalfactorThatisdroughtWasthemostimportantclimaticrisktosuffer5Basedonanalysisofmultiyearyieldsequenceandtheinfluenceofdroughtatdiffe