國際貿(mào)易外文翻譯--東亞自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定的經(jīng)濟(jì)影響的評(píng)估（節(jié)選）

1、<p>　　中文2250字，1250英文單詞，6800英文字符</p><p>　　文獻(xiàn)出處：Cheong I. Estimation of Economic Effects of FTAs in East Asia — CGE Approach[J]. East Asian Economic Regionalism, 2005:139-155.</p><p>　　ESTIMA

2、TION OF ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF FTAS IN EAST ASIA – CGE APPROACH</p><p>　　INKYO CHEONG</p><p>　　1.INTRODUCTION</p><p>　　Despite political and social barriers, there is much to be gained

3、 from an East Asian FTA. Factors such as geographic proximity, complementary endowments of production factors, and growing economic ties after the crisis will help in making this goal come true. East Asia accounts for on

4、e-third of the world’s population and one-fifth of the world’s GDP and trade volume. In terms of population and GDP, excluding the inflow of the FDI, East Asia is evaluated to have a similar economic potential as th</

5、p><p>　　Other forms of dynamic benefits also exist. First of all, common standards for production technology, product regulations, distribution, and after-sales service can be expanded across countries in the

6、region. Even if these standards are in conflict with the standards of North America or the EU, the Asian countries can gain leverage during international standardizing negotiations by presenting a unified front, as sugg

7、ested in Igawa and Kim (2001).</p><p>　　The rapid emergence of China in discussions on Northeast Asian or East Asian economic cooperation is also a matter for consideration as East Asian countries need to st

8、rengthen cooperation with China. With China’s admission into the WTO and its hosting of the Olympics in 2008, its economic and political position will improve. An East Asian FTA offers a way to effectively access the Chi

9、nese market and at the same time strengthen economic cooperation with China.</p><p>　　Some have proposed the restructuring of East Asia’s development model after the financial crisis. So far, East Asian coun

10、tries have achieved economic growth through increased exports to the U.S. market. However, since the U.S. demand for imports may wane with the fierce competition in its markets and the expansion of its trade deficit, it

11、is time for East Asia to create its own demand; establishing an East Asian FTA seems to be the best way to go about it.</p><p>　　An East Asian FTA will improve the economic and social stability of East Asia

12、and contribute to strengthening the region’s presence in the international community. An East Asian FTA can weaken the conflicting positions of China and Japan for regional leadership through the conclusion of bilateral

13、FTAs, and in the long term, secure stability in East Asia, if North Korea joins in the future.</p><p>　　This chapter will estimate the economic effects of various forms of East Asian regionalism using a comp

14、utational general equilibrium (CGE) model. After reviewing existing studies on an East Asian FTA, this chapter will briefly describe the basic information of the simulation, such as the database, parameters, and the simu

15、lation model used. Finally, the chapter will discuss the results of the simulation.</p><p>　　2.EXISTING STUDIES ON AN EAST ASIAN FTA</p><p>　　East Asian economic integration has been a topic of

16、study since the mid-1990s. The World Bank (1994) emphasizes the necessity of East Asian economic integration, observing that despite the worldwide economic downturn of the early 1990s, East Asia achieved rapid growth due

17、 to the high growth of trade and investment within the region. It specifies that it is the markets within the region that have played a crucial role in the economic growth of East Asian countries. However, noting that t

18、he growt</p><p>　　Young (1993) pointed to the high non-tariff barriers in East Asia, asserting the need to develop trade liberalization measures within the region. Moreover, arguing that the establishment of

19、 an economic cooperative bloc will facilitate economic growth, Young (1993) recommended that East Asian countries reverse their protective positions. On the other hand, Panagariya (1994) discussed the possibility of the

20、East Asia Economic Group (EAEG) proposed by Malaysia's Prime Minister Mahathir, expressing </p><p>　　In the late 1990s, there were numerous studies on East Asian trade liberalization and trade relations

21、using analytic models. Researchers focused on analyzing trade relations between East Asian countries using the gravity model, or on estimating the impact of trade liberalization using the computational general equilibriu

22、m (CGE) model to make policy recommendations. Kreinin and Plummer (1994), Choi (1996), Thorpe and Zhang (2000), Dutta (2002), Lee and Park (2002), and Kim (2002) discussed compet</p><p>　　3.DATABASE, PARAMET

23、ERS AND THE ECONOMIC MODEL</p><p>　　Many difficulties accompany the building of a CGE model. Constructing a database necessary for the model’s simulation, takes much time and effort. A database construction

24、 for a multi-country CGE model requires I-O tables of the relevant regions, along with statistics on production, consumption, trade of each industry and country, etc. In order to save on time and resources, researchers c

25、an use products developed by academic institutions like the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP), which constr</p><p>　　4.ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF EAST ASIAN REGIONALISM</p><p>　　This report will ass

26、ume eight hypothetical FTAs in East Asia and estimate their economic effects. First, the economic effects of the three bilateral FTAs in Northeast Asia (China-Japan FTA, China-Korea FTA, Japan-Korea FTA) and a CJK FTA in

27、 Northeast Asia are estimated. Subsequently, the three cases of bilateral FTAs between Southeast Asia’s AFTA and Northeast Asian countries (e.g., ASEAN-China FTA) and the case in which East Asia establishes one FTA are e

28、xamined. For each supposed FTA, the effe</p><p>　　Recent FTAs are comprehensive, including services, investment, and even trade rules on intellectual property rights, dispute settlement mechanisms and exclus

29、ion of anti-dumping rules, etc. But it is not easy to estimate the full economic effects of an FTA. However, it is also very difficult to quantify the degree of improvement in trade rules for the simulation. Because tari

30、ff elimination is the most important factor in an FTA, this report will analyze the effects of tariff elimination only.</p><p>　　東亞自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定的經(jīng)濟(jì)影響的評(píng)估——CGE方法</p><p>　　INKYO CHEONG</p><p>

31、;<b>　　引言</b></p><p>　　除了政治和社會(huì)壁壘，東亞自由貿(mào)易區(qū)還有許多壁壘。比如地理鄰近，生產(chǎn)要素的互補(bǔ)性以及危機(jī)過后增長(zhǎng)的經(jīng)濟(jì)紐帶等因素將有助于實(shí)現(xiàn)這一目標(biāo)。東亞占了世界人口的三分之一,占了世界國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值和貿(mào)易總額的五分之一。就人口和國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值而言，不包括對(duì)外直接投資，據(jù)估計(jì)東亞具有和歐盟和北美自由貿(mào)易區(qū)一樣的經(jīng)濟(jì)潛力。東亞自由貿(mào)易區(qū)能為成員經(jīng)濟(jì)體提供什么樣的好處呢

32、？隨著關(guān)稅和非關(guān)稅壁壘的免除，東亞成為自由貿(mào)易區(qū)，貿(mào)易可以擴(kuò)大出口和享受擴(kuò)大規(guī)模經(jīng)濟(jì)。而且，創(chuàng)造出大型自由貿(mào)易區(qū)將帶來動(dòng)態(tài)好處，因?yàn)檫@個(gè)地區(qū)會(huì)吸引更多的外資直接投資，這樣接著可以創(chuàng)造更多的工作，促進(jìn)高新技術(shù)的傳遞。</p><p>　　另一種動(dòng)態(tài)的好處也是存在的。首先，產(chǎn)品技術(shù)，產(chǎn)品規(guī)章，配送以及售后服務(wù)的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)在跨國地區(qū)里可以被擴(kuò)大。即使這些標(biāo)準(zhǔn)是與北美或者歐盟的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)有沖突的，亞洲國家在國際標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化的談判期間通過呈

33、現(xiàn)統(tǒng)一戰(zhàn)線也能獲得優(yōu)勢(shì)，正如井川和金姆(2001)所表明的。</p><p>　　由于東亞國家需要增強(qiáng)與中國之間的合作，所以在亞洲東北部和東亞經(jīng)濟(jì)合作討論中中國的快速出現(xiàn)也是一個(gè)需要考慮的問題。隨著中國加入世界貿(mào)易組織，且于2008年舉辦奧運(yùn)會(huì)，中國的經(jīng)濟(jì)和政治地位得到了提升。東亞自由貿(mào)易區(qū)提供了有效進(jìn)入中國市場(chǎng)的方法，同時(shí)加強(qiáng)了與中國之間的經(jīng)濟(jì)合作。</p><p>　　金融危機(jī)之后，有

34、些人已提出重建東亞的發(fā)展模式。到目前為止，東亞國家己經(jīng)通過增加對(duì)美市場(chǎng)的出口實(shí)現(xiàn)了經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長(zhǎng)。然而，由于美國對(duì)貿(mào)易赤字的要求，東亞是時(shí)候該創(chuàng)造自己的需要了，建立一個(gè)東亞自由貿(mào)易區(qū)似乎會(huì)是最好的方式。</p><p>　　東亞自由貿(mào)易區(qū)將會(huì)改善東亞的經(jīng)濟(jì)和社會(huì)的穩(wěn)定性，還能有助于增強(qiáng)地區(qū)在國際社區(qū)中的表現(xiàn)。東亞自由貿(mào)易區(qū)能夠通過總結(jié)雙邊自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定削弱中國和日本在地區(qū)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)權(quán)上的沖突立場(chǎng)，長(zhǎng)期下來，如果南韓在未來也加

35、入進(jìn)來，就能保障東亞的穩(wěn)定發(fā)展。</p><p>　　這章將使用計(jì)算一般均衡模型來估計(jì)不同形式的東亞地區(qū)主義的經(jīng)濟(jì)影響。在評(píng)價(jià)了現(xiàn)有的關(guān)于東亞自由貿(mào)易區(qū)的研究之后，這章將會(huì)簡(jiǎn)要地描述模擬的基本信息，比如數(shù)據(jù)集，參數(shù)以及所用的模擬模型。最后這一章將會(huì)討論一下模擬的結(jié)果。</p><p>　　現(xiàn)存的關(guān)于東亞自由貿(mào)易協(xié)會(huì)的研究</p><p>　　東亞經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化從二十世紀(jì)

36、九十年代中期就已經(jīng)成為了一個(gè)研究話題。世界銀行（1994)強(qiáng)調(diào)了東亞經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化體的必要性，發(fā)現(xiàn)盡管1990年代初全球經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退，但東亞的貿(mào)易和投資增長(zhǎng)迅速，實(shí)現(xiàn)了快速增長(zhǎng)。它詳細(xì)說明了是區(qū)域內(nèi)的市場(chǎng)在東亞國家的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)中起著重要作用。但是，注意到區(qū)域內(nèi)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)將受到限制，就有必要擴(kuò)大與區(qū)域外的地區(qū)之間的貿(mào)易或者要設(shè)計(jì)措施促進(jìn)區(qū)域之間的貿(mào)易發(fā)展。那就是說，通過貿(mào)易和投資自由化比如自由貿(mào)易區(qū)協(xié)定，促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化的機(jī)制應(yīng)該要有所提升。<

37、/p><p>　　楊（1993)指出了東亞的非關(guān)稅壁壘，聲稱需要發(fā)展區(qū)域內(nèi)的貿(mào)易自由化措施。而且，提出建立經(jīng)濟(jì)合作聯(lián)名將會(huì)促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)，楊（1993)建議中亞國家推翻它們的保護(hù)位置。另一方面，潘納加里亞（1994)討論了由馬來西亞總理馬哈蒂爾所提出的東亞經(jīng)濟(jì)集團(tuán)(EAEG)的可能性，對(duì)這種類型的區(qū)域內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化的可行性表示懷疑。潘納加里亞提出這樣的一體化將很難實(shí)現(xiàn)，因?yàn)闁|亞國家非關(guān)稅壁壘的復(fù)雜性。但是自從研究發(fā)表之后

38、，東亞己經(jīng)有了劇烈的改變和發(fā)展，這就增加了區(qū)域內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化的可行性。</p><p>　　在二十世紀(jì)九十年代末，關(guān)于東亞貿(mào)易自由化和使用分析模型的貿(mào)易關(guān)系的研究非常多。調(diào)查人員注重使用重力模型分析東亞國家之間的關(guān)系，或者注重使用計(jì)算一般均衡模型（CGE) 做政策推薦來估計(jì)貿(mào)易自由化產(chǎn)生的影響。Kreinin 和 Plummer (1994), Choi (1996), Thorpe 和 Zhang (2000),

39、 Dutta (2002), Lee 和 Par（2002), 和 Kim (2002)通過分析東亞貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)探討了競(jìng)爭(zhēng)關(guān)系，產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)貿(mào)易以及經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化理想的方向。Martin, Petri和Yanagishima (1994), Oh 和 Cheong (1997), Brown, Deardorff 和 Stern(2001), 和 Park (2001)是使用計(jì)算一般均衡模型（CGE)的一些研究。</p><p&g

40、t;　　數(shù)據(jù)集，參數(shù)以及經(jīng)濟(jì)模型</p><p>　　許多困難都伴隨著計(jì)算一般均衡模型的建立。為模型模擬建立一個(gè)必要的數(shù)據(jù)集要花許多時(shí)間和精力的。為多國家的計(jì)算一般均衡模型建造數(shù)據(jù)集需要相關(guān)地區(qū)的投入產(chǎn)出表格，還需要關(guān)于產(chǎn)品，消費(fèi)，玫瑰產(chǎn)業(yè)和國家的貿(mào)易等的數(shù)據(jù)。為了節(jié)約時(shí)間和資源，調(diào)查人員可以使用像全球貿(mào)易分析項(xiàng)目(GTAP)這樣的學(xué)術(shù)機(jī)構(gòu)開發(fā)的產(chǎn)品，他們?yōu)橛?jì)算一般均衡模型構(gòu)建 數(shù)據(jù)集，然后在將他們以商業(yè)的方法賣

41、掉。這種研究使用了全球貿(mào)易分析項(xiàng)目的數(shù)據(jù)集，第五種版本，由 Dimaranan 和McDougall(2002)記錄。</p><p>　　東亞經(jīng)濟(jì)行政區(qū)域劃分的影響</p><p>　　這份報(bào)告將假設(shè)在東亞的八種自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定，估計(jì)它們的經(jīng)濟(jì)影響。首先估計(jì)了亞洲東北部的三種雙邊自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定(中-日自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定，中-韓自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定，日-韓自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定）的經(jīng)濟(jì)影響以及一種亞洲東北部的中日韓自由

42、貿(mào)易協(xié)定。接著，驗(yàn)證了亞洲東南部的自由貿(mào)易區(qū)和亞洲東北部國家（比如中國東盟自由貿(mào)易區(qū)）之間的雙邊自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定的三個(gè)案例，驗(yàn)證了東亞建立一個(gè)自由貿(mào)易區(qū)的案例。還驗(yàn)證了每個(gè)假設(shè)的自由貿(mào)易區(qū)，貿(mào)易自由化(“TL”）的影響以及資本積累（“CA”）的影響，另外還有貿(mào)易自由化的影響（“TL&CA”）。貿(mào)易自由化指的是全球貿(mào)易分析模型數(shù)據(jù)集中成員國之間的關(guān)稅是免除的，在2002年發(fā)布，用于估計(jì)東亞國家有效關(guān)稅的比例。要對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)影響有更準(zhǔn)確的估計(jì)

43、，指的對(duì)關(guān)稅免除和非關(guān)稅壁壘的改善進(jìn)行分析。但是，由于很難發(fā)現(xiàn)關(guān)于非關(guān)稅壁壘的可靠數(shù)據(jù)，所以就沒有分析去除非關(guān)稅壁壘的影響。</p><p>　　最近的自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定是綜合性的，包括服務(wù)，投資甚至是關(guān)于知識(shí)產(chǎn)權(quán)，爭(zhēng)端解決機(jī)制以及排除反傾銷條例等的貿(mào)易條例。但是，要估計(jì)一個(gè)自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定的全面經(jīng)濟(jì)影響并不容易。而在模擬中量化貿(mào)易條例的改善程度也非常困難。因?yàn)殛P(guān)稅免除是自由貿(mào)易區(qū)中最重要的因素，所以這份報(bào)告將會(huì)只分析關(guān)稅