外商直接投資在中國東部地區(qū)的實(shí)證研究【外文翻譯】

1、<p><b>　　外文翻譯</b></p><p><b>　　原文</b></p><p>　　An Empirical Study of Foreign Direct Investment Location in Eastern China</p><p>　　Material Source: The Ch

2、inese Economy, vol. 41, no. 6, November–December 2008, pp. 75–98.</p><p>　　Author: Xing Li, Keqiang Hou, and M.W. Luke Chan</p><p>　　Abstract: This paper examines the determinants of foreign dir

3、ect investment (FDI) for the Eastern Region of China as a whole by excluding the two lesser jurisdictions and concentrating on the Big Five jurisdictions from 1993 to 2005. Robust estimates and a better understanding of

4、FDI in Eastern China are obtained by employing robust Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), the random effect model, and the fixed-effect model separately on each case. Without any outliers and serial correlation in residuals, &

5、lt;/p><p>　　Foreign direct investment (FDI) in China has been subjected to many years of discussion and study. This is a direct result of the level and impact of such investments on China’s overall development.

6、 The economic growth in China since 1979 and the beginning of its open-door policy have been keenly observed and studied. The economic growth phenomenon witnessed in the past two decades is something never before seen in

7、 human history. Many factors have triggered and propelled such growth, including n</p><p>　　In analyzing the impact of FDI on the growth and development of the Chinese economy, China’s different economic reg

8、ions will be divided to isolate and identify the regional differences where such investment added to the growth of the economy (Hsiao and Yan 2003; Zhang 2006). Economic reform in China has progressed rapidly, but althou

9、gh the open-door policy began in the early 1980s, FDI did not begin until the early 1990s. Because of this time lag there is a lack of time series observations, and </p><p>　　This study differs from previous

10、 studies in that the focus is placed on only one region, namely the eastern region, which in turn will be deconstructed into three hierarchical groups. Local physical investment is introduced as one of the determinants,

11、since the effect of local investment on FDI is ambiguous. We hope to find the underlying determinants of FDI in the eastern region from the empirical results of this study. </p><p>　　Wage rate rather than ed

12、ucational quality will be used as a proxy for labor quality. In many previous empirical studies of the Chinese economy, labor quality was measured by such criteria as educational level, experience, and diligence. In our

13、view, the wage rate represents all these factors, since it equals the marginal product of labor according to classic microeconomic theory. We use separate controls for educational level and labor quality in order to stud

14、y their respective effects on FDI. W</p><p>　　Foreign direct investment by multinational enterprises is an important feature of the global economy. Most developing countries consider FDI inflows as one of th

15、e most important channels for economic development. Since Dunning’s (1979) seminal work on eclectic theory, scholars in the field of international business have sought to examine location factors as determinants of FDI.

16、They view location-bound assets as complements to their own core competencies, since location-specific factors present </p><p>　　FDI Distribution in China</p><p>　　China can be divided into thre

17、e geographic regions: eastern, central and western. The eastern region covers eleven provinces and autonomous municipalities: Liaoning, Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Fujian, Guangdong, a

18、nd Hainan. The central region covers nine provinces: Heilongjiang, Jilin, Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, Henan, Anhui, Hubei, Jiangxi, and Hunan. The western region encompasses ten provinces in the northwest and southwest.</

19、p><p>　　From 1993 to 2005, the eastern region had about 85 percent of the FDI in China, peaking in 2000 at almost 92 percent. The other eighteen provinces and autonomous municipalities of the central and wester

20、n regions had less than 15 percent of the total FDI. The Tibet Autonomous Region had virtually no FDI, while the proportions of FDI in Qinghai and Ningxia were only 0.01 percent and 0.13 percent of the total. During the

21、period from 1993 to 2005, Gansu, Xinjiang, Guizhou , Inner Mongolia, and Yunna</p><p>　　Obviously, the regional variation of FDI is very big even by visual inspection. It is difficult, although possible, to

22、draw accurate references and inferences on empirical analysis for the three vastly different regions. However, if one examines the pattern of FDI in the eleven geographic areas of the eastern region, one can also see a v

23、ast difference in the investment pattern. Instead of showing the year-by-year FDI flow into the eleven provinces and autonomous municipalities, we present in Fig</p><p>　　Statistical information from the Min

24、istry of Commerce shows a clear difference in the actual FDI amounts in the eastern region. The maximum cumulative FDI, located in Guangdong province, amounted to US$151.65 billion from 1993 to 2005. This is almost twent

25、y times as much as the US$7.79 billion investment in Hainan province, the lowest of the FDI indices among all eleven areas. It is evident that FDI gravitates mostly to three locations in the eastern region: Guangdong, Ji

26、angsu, and Shanghai. Gua</p><p>　　It is interesting and important to note that the flow of FDI into the eastern region shows no sign of abatement. Figure 3b shows the pattern of FDI flow into the eleven prov

27、inces/autonomous municipalities of the eastern region. </p><p>　　From 1998, after the Asian financial crisis of July 1997, to 2005, both the level and the trend of FDI in the eastern region in China were str

28、ong. Six of the areas in the eleven jurisdictions had experienced an upward trend: Shandong, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Beijing, and Tianjin. In fact, Shandong showed the strongest annual rate of growth at 43.34 percen

29、t, followed closely by Zhejiang at 42.17 percent and Shanghai at 12.33 percent. For Jiangsu, Beijing, and Tianjin, the growth rates were e</p><p>　　It is evident that the eastern region of China is undoubted

30、ly the most important region for FDI. This makes it essential to focus more attention on the deterministic behavior of FDI in this region. By doing so, we hope to isolate and identify factors and influences that are crit

31、ical to FDI in eastern China and perhaps in China as a whole, and this will enable policy makers to formulate rules and guidelines to attract further investment.</p><p>　　In general, several important observ

32、ations can be drawn. First, the eastern region is the most important area in attracting FDI. Second, two of its eleven provinces/autonomous municipalities, Hebei and Hainan, stand out as different from the others. The le

33、vels of FDI in these two provinces are very low and have been trending downward throughout the period. Including these two areas in our overall analysis of the eastern region will undoubtedly produce biased and unreliabl

34、e results. Third, the li</p><p>　　Empirical Models and Analysis</p><p>　　Data Description</p><p>　　FDI location factors can be generally categorized into the following four major gr

35、oups: market size, educational level, openness of the economy, and state of the infrastructure. Five major FDI locations have been chosen for study. Apart from the above four variables, labor quality and local physical i

36、nvestment in the region have been added as other determinants.</p><p>　　The influence of market size on FDI determination is captured by using the level of GDP of the region as a proxy. Educational level is

37、measured by the number of undergraduate students as a percentage of the total population of the province or region. This number should provide a good indication of the level of education and quality of the labor force. T

38、he degree of openness in the economy and readiness to accept FDI undoubtedly has a positive effect on the level of FDI. The degree of openness is</p><p>　　Three different variables are employed to measure th

39、e infrastructure readiness of the province or region: highways, railways, and telecommunications. For highways, we calculate the total kilometers of highways per square kilometer of land. Similarly, we use the length of

40、railway lines per square kilometer. The level of expenditure on telecommunications per person in the province or region is used as a proxy of activity and intensity of telecommunication.</p><p>　　Domestic or

41、 local investment comprises all other investment coming from domestic sources, while foreign direct investment comprises investment in the region coming from foreign countries.</p><p>　　Finally, the quality

42、of labor in the province or region is also an important factor in determining FDI. To determine this, the average wage rate for industrial workers in three industrial sectors (mining and quarrying, manufacturing, and ele

43、ctricity, gas, and water production and supply) is calculated using sectorial employment numbers as weights.</p><p><b>　　譯文</b></p><p>　　外商直接投資在中國東部地區(qū)的實(shí)證研究</p><p>　　資料來源

44、: The Chinese Economy, 2008（11-12）作者：M.W. Luke </p><p>　　摘要：本文主要是通過考察從1993年到2005年期間外商直接投資集中在中國東部地區(qū)的決定因素。通過運(yùn)用最小二乘法（OLS）的隨機(jī)效應(yīng)模型和固定效應(yīng)模型分別來分析每個(gè)案例，從而獲得了外商在中國東部直接投資的有效的估計(jì)并且對(duì)此有了深入的理解。沒有任何異常值和殘差序列相關(guān)性，這五個(gè)大的區(qū)域?yàn)槲覀兲峁┝送鈬?/p>

45、直接投資在中國東部的最可靠的估計(jì)和決定因素。發(fā)現(xiàn)市場規(guī)模和勞動(dòng)力素質(zhì)對(duì)外國直接投資在東部有積極，重大的影響。而教育和基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的建設(shè)并沒有直接影響外商的直接投資。而對(duì)于本地的實(shí)際投資程度，我們?cè)诎咐幸舶l(fā)現(xiàn)在外商直接投資中有擠出效用。</p><p>　　外商直接投資在中國已經(jīng)被研究和討論了很多年。這是外商直接投資在中國的整體發(fā)展趨勢(shì)的直接結(jié)果。從1979年開始，中國的改革開放政策影響下，經(jīng)濟(jì)開始增長。這種經(jīng)濟(jì)增長

46、的態(tài)勢(shì)是過去二十年來從未在歷史上出現(xiàn)過的。有很多因素促成了這樣快的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長速度，包括從國外先進(jìn)國家引進(jìn)的技術(shù)，有大量的有效新穎的管理技能還有就是外商的直接投資。</p><p>　　在分析外商直接投資對(duì)中國經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長和發(fā)展的影響中，中國不同的經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)域的影響作用是有差異化的。（Hsiao and Yan 2003; Zhang 2006）中國的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展迅速，但盡管改革開放的政策市實(shí)行于八十年代，外商的直接投資是到九

47、十年代才開始的。由于這個(gè)原因，缺少一個(gè)時(shí)間序列的觀測，關(guān)于外商直接投資的實(shí)證分析幾乎都是使用時(shí)序—截面數(shù)據(jù)，當(dāng)前的研究也不例外。</p><p>　　本研究與以往的研究不同在于只專注于一個(gè)地區(qū)，即東部地區(qū)，作為三個(gè)區(qū)域的之一來分析。本地的實(shí)際的投資是重要的決定因素之一，地方的外商直接投資的影響是不確定的。我們希望從這個(gè)實(shí)證研究中能夠得到中國東部外商直接投資的基本決定因素。</p><p>

48、　　工資率，而不是教育的質(zhì)量將會(huì)作為勞動(dòng)力質(zhì)量的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。在先前很多關(guān)于中國經(jīng)濟(jì)的實(shí)證研究中，勞動(dòng)力的水平是衡量教育的水平、經(jīng)驗(yàn)以及勤奮的重要因素。在我們看來，工資率可以代表所有的這些因素。依據(jù)是因?yàn)檫@等于是古典經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)理論中的邊際勞動(dòng)產(chǎn)品。我們對(duì)勞動(dòng)力水平和教育水平實(shí)行分別控制，來研究這兩方面對(duì)外商直接投資的影響。我們從中發(fā)現(xiàn)員工的教育水平是勞動(dòng)力素質(zhì)的小部分作用于外商的直接投資。我們的研究結(jié)果表明，勞動(dòng)力的素質(zhì)對(duì)于外商的直接投資在中國東部

49、地區(qū)具有積極、顯著的影響。盡管中國東部的教育水平對(duì)于外商直接投資的作用是微乎其微的，但是證明是積極的。</p><p>　　跨國公司的外商直接投資是全球經(jīng)濟(jì)化的重要特征，大多數(shù)發(fā)展中國家認(rèn)為外商投資的資金流入是本國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的重要渠道之一。自從鄧寧提出了開創(chuàng)性的生產(chǎn)折中理論（1979）之后，國際業(yè)務(wù)領(lǐng)域中，區(qū)位因素就成為了外商直接投資的決定因素。他們是位置的約束為自己核心競爭力的補(bǔ)充，因?yàn)楦髯缘木唧w區(qū)位可以展現(xiàn)不同

50、方面來吸引外商投資者。我們所研究的區(qū)位理論也正是經(jīng)常用來解釋為什么外商投資者要選這么一個(gè)特定的東道國區(qū)位來進(jìn)行投資。</p><p>　　外商直接投資的區(qū)位的決定因素已經(jīng)被廣泛研究（Chen 1996; Cheng and Kwan 2000a, 2000b ; Coughlin, Terza, and Arromdee 1991; Friedman, Gerlowski, and Silberman 19

51、92; Head,Reis, and Swenson 1995; Wheeler and Mody 1992）很多學(xué)者所建議的最重要的外商直接投資的區(qū)位決定因素可以分為市場準(zhǔn)入因素、勞動(dòng)力成本因素、基礎(chǔ)建設(shè)、政府的政策、聚集效應(yīng)和市場的潛力的影響。（Blonigen et al. 2004; Head and Mayer 2004）圖表提供了外商直接投資決定因素的選擇的總結(jié)，是以理論預(yù)測和實(shí)證的結(jié)果為依據(jù)的。</p>&l

52、t;p>　　外商直接投資在中國的分布</p><p>　　中國可以分為三個(gè)地理區(qū)域，東部、中部和西部。東部包括十一省和直轄市：遼寧，北京，天津，河北，山東，江蘇，浙江，上海，福建，廣東，海南。中部地區(qū)涵蓋九個(gè)?。汉邶埥?，吉林，內(nèi)蒙古，山西，河南，安徽，湖北，江西，湖南。西部地區(qū)包括在西北和西南的十個(gè)省市。從1993年至2005年，東部地區(qū)大約有外商直接投資占全部的百分之八十五，2000年達(dá)到頂峰，有將近百分

53、之九十二，其他省市的比例就為百分之十五左右。西藏自治區(qū)幾乎沒有外商直接投資，而青海和寧夏的外商直接投資比例僅為百分之零點(diǎn)零一和百分之零點(diǎn)一三。1993年至2005年間，甘肅、新疆、貴州、內(nèi)蒙古及云南的外商直接投資占不足百分之零點(diǎn)二的。</p><p>　　顯然，外商的直接投資很明顯的就能看出區(qū)域之間的差異很大。得出準(zhǔn)確的參考和實(shí)證的研究去分析這三個(gè)大的區(qū)域雖然困難，但也是有可能的。但是如果我們關(guān)注東部地區(qū)十一個(gè)省

54、市的外商直接投資的格局，我們也可以看到這中間投資結(jié)構(gòu)也有巨大的差異。</p><p>　　商務(wù)部的統(tǒng)計(jì)資料的顯示，東部地區(qū)外商直接投資區(qū)域也有明顯差異，最大的外商直接投資地方時(shí)廣東省，從1993年到2005年已經(jīng)達(dá)到了總額1516.5億美元，這幾乎是美國在海南投資總額的二十倍。很顯然，外商的直接投資主要集中在廣東、江蘇和上海三個(gè)地方，廣東所占的比重最大，占整個(gè)東部地區(qū)的百分之二十八點(diǎn)七，同時(shí)也占整個(gè)中國地區(qū)的百分