銀行業(yè)國外商業(yè)銀行專題之資產(chǎn)負債表篇金融脫媒加速催化資負業(yè)務(wù)和經(jīng)營模式變革

1、正文目錄一、美日商業(yè)銀行發(fā)展階段概覽........................................................................................71.1美國：從單體銀行走向混業(yè)經(jīng)營全能銀行.....................................71.2日本：戰(zhàn)后崛起和失落二十年，“主銀行制”下銀企休戚與共........................

2、................8二、資產(chǎn)增速隨經(jīng)濟起伏，歷次危機驅(qū)動變革.................................................................82.1資產(chǎn)增速：宏觀經(jīng)濟、行業(yè)監(jiān)管是兩大決定因素...............................8三、資產(chǎn)配置：信貸占比相對穩(wěn)定，非信貸起伏明顯......................................

3、.............103.1資產(chǎn)結(jié)構(gòu)：金融危機后配置回歸穩(wěn)健，非信貸類資產(chǎn)波動明顯..................103.2貸款結(jié)構(gòu)：經(jīng)濟轉(zhuǎn)型升級以及利率市場化帶動零售貸款長足發(fā)展................113.3投資結(jié)構(gòu)：利率水平以及混業(yè)經(jīng)營是證券投資的重要影響因素..................16四、負債端：利率市場化和金融脫媒影響存款規(guī)模..................................

4、.....................184.1負債結(jié)構(gòu)：經(jīng)濟危機影響負債能力，利率市場化改變負債格局..................184.2存款結(jié)構(gòu)：利率市場化以及金融脫媒加速生息存款占比的提升..................20五、資本：杠桿率均有下行，巴塞爾協(xié)議強化資本要求...............................................245.1資本規(guī)模和充足率：權(quán)益資本資產(chǎn)率走高，巴塞

5、爾協(xié)議強化充足率要求..........245.2資本構(gòu)成：資本溢價是主要構(gòu)成部分，商業(yè)銀行資本補充途徑豐富..............26六、美日分類別銀行分析：行業(yè)集中度提升，業(yè)務(wù)專注領(lǐng)域分化...............................286.1美國....................................................................286.2日本.........

6、...........................................................31七、他山之石：行以致遠，資負發(fā)展和經(jīng)營模式的變革...............................................327.1中國：經(jīng)濟轉(zhuǎn)型升級，商業(yè)銀行在降杠桿強監(jiān)管下開啟低風險穩(wěn)增長模式........327.2他山之石：行以致遠，資負發(fā)展和經(jīng)營模式的變革................

7、............357.3投資建議................................................................36八、風險提示：..................................................................................................................368.1資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量受經(jīng)濟

8、超預(yù)期下滑影響，信用風險集中暴露..........................368.2行業(yè)監(jiān)管趨嚴超預(yù)期......................................................368.3市場下跌出現(xiàn)系統(tǒng)性風險..................................................36圖表34MBS占全部證券投資資產(chǎn)的50%左右....................

9、..................17圖表35證券投資資產(chǎn)規(guī)模增速...................................................17圖表36日本證券投資資產(chǎn)結(jié)構(gòu)...................................................17圖表37債券投資類型........................................................

10、...18圖表38海外股票投資占比提升...................................................18圖表39美國商業(yè)銀行總負債趨勢.................................................19圖表40（美國）負債結(jié)構(gòu)：存款份額超八成，金融危機后回升.......................19圖表41日本商業(yè)銀行總負債趨勢..............

11、...................................19圖表42（日本）負債結(jié)構(gòu)：交易型負債占比提升...................................19圖表43美國商業(yè)銀行存款增速...................................................20圖表44按來源劃分的存款結(jié)構(gòu)...........................................

12、........20圖表45計息存款占比提升.......................................................20圖表462017年海外存款占比10.6%...................................................................................20圖表4708金融危機后定期存款儲蓄存款占比提升.............

13、....................21圖表48非交易存款占比提升.....................................................21圖表49日本商業(yè)銀行存款（含可轉(zhuǎn)讓存單）增速...................................21圖表50活期存款占比提升.......................................................22圖表

14、5190年代同業(yè)存款占比較高................................................22圖表52日本CPI..................................................................................................................22圖表53定期存款增速.....................

15、......................................22圖表54負債端存款占比走低.....................................................23圖表55住戶和企業(yè)分別貢獻存款的近45%和35%.............................................................23圖表56住戶和企業(yè)存款中定期存款占比超60%...

16、...............................................................23圖表57定期存款中企業(yè)存款占比40%45%........................................................................23圖表58住戶定期存款增速走高..............................................

17、.....23圖表59企業(yè)定期存款增速回升至8%.......................................................................................23圖表60美國商業(yè)銀行權(quán)益資本規(guī)模...............................................25圖表61日本商業(yè)銀行權(quán)益資本規(guī)模..........................

18、.....................25圖表62權(quán)益資本資產(chǎn)率對比（總資本總資產(chǎn)）....................................25圖表63杠桿倍數(shù)對比...........................................................25圖表64資本充足率對比........................................................

19、.25圖表65貸存比：日本早期發(fā)展處于超貸狀態(tài).......................................25圖表66美國商業(yè)銀行權(quán)益資本結(jié)構(gòu)...............................................26圖表67優(yōu)先股發(fā)行規(guī)模及占比...................................................26圖表68資本溢價規(guī)模及占比...........