基于風速統(tǒng)計特性分析的風力機可靠性評估研究.pdf

1、東南大學碩士學位論文基于風速統(tǒng)計特性分析的風力機可靠性評估研究姓名：靳全申請學位級別：碩士專業(yè)：機械工程；制造業(yè)工業(yè)工程指導教師：蘇春20110323InvestigationonReliabilityEvaluationforWindTurbinesBasedontheAnalysisofWindSpeedCharacteristicsByJINQuanSupervisedbyAssociateProfSUChunSoutheastU

2、niversityEnergyisessentialforthesurvivalanddevelopmentofmankindWiththerapidincreaseoferl盯gyeonsumptionthefossilenergysuchascoal，petroleumandn砒llrR!gashasbeenunabletomeettheincreasingenergyneedoftheworldMoreovertheusingof

3、fossilenergyisconsideredasthemainc糾瞰汜forglobalwarmingandthedeterioratingofecologicalenvironmentwhichhavethreatenedthehealthandsurvivalofhumansInrecentyears，wind∞e理黟hasbeendrawinggreatattentionthroughouttheworldduetobeing

4、abundantrenewableandenvironmentfriendlyTheinstalledcapacityofwindpowerhasbeengrowingsignificantlyinthelastdecadesWindturbineisthecorecomponentofwindpowersystemforwhichhigllreliabilityisessentialtomaximizetheeconomicaland

5、socialbenefitduetoitsintricatestructureandharshworkingconditionWmdisofgreatrandomness，intermittenceandfluctuationandtheverticalwindshearwillalsoaffecttheaccuracyofassessmentFurthermore，thereliabilitylevelofwindturbinesis

6、relatedtowindspeedmreliabilityevaluationforwindturbinesisinvestigatedinthispapermainlybasedontheanalysisofwindspeedcharacteristicsThemajorworkofthisthesisis笛follows：(1)11hefailuremodesofwindturbinesanditssubassembliesa托p

7、resentedusingthemethodsofreliabilityblockdiagram(RBD)，fault慨a(chǎn)nalysisWrA)，andfailuremodeandeffectanalysis(FMEA)TllemodelingmethodologiesforreliabilityanalysisarebrieflyintroducedTheF～也Aandmforgearboxandlubricationsystemar

8、ecarriedouttodetectthebottleneckofthewindturbinesforwhichpreventivemcasu陀sal弓proposedtoensurethesystemreliabilityandtoprolongitslifecycle(2)Theprobabilitydistributionofwindspeedandavailabilityassessmentfor州ndfarmsa托inves

9、tigated誦mPowerlawprocessconsideringtheinfluenceofverticalwindshearmwindsp∞d砒extendedheight(60m)isgeneratedfromthatofreferenceheightOom)Theleastsquare(LS)methodmaximumlikelihoodestimation(MLE)methodandadjustedMLE(AMLE)met

10、hodareusedtoestimatetheparametersinthemodelneindicesofwindenergycharacteristicarededucedItshowsthatMLEandAM兒Ea托superiortoLSmethodfortheparameterestimationandthewindspeeddistributionsaldifferentheightchangegreatlyowingtot

11、heverticalwindshe墻tr(3)Therelevancefor晰ndspeedandfailurerate(FR)ofwindturbinesisanalyzedusingtimeseriesapproachbased011thestatisticaldataforlongtimeTimeseriesofpowerindex(PDandFRforwindturbinesa托established111ecorrelatio

12、nreflectingtheeffectofwindenergyonturbinesisstudiedfrombothtimedomainandfrequencydomainbyextractingtheautocorrelationfunctioncrosscorrelationfunctionandspectrumdensityfunctionAcasestudyisfinishedwhichshowsthatP1andFRhave

13、strongseasonalcharacteristicsandsimilarperiodicity：theCROSScorrelationsuggestsm砒thereisawellconsistencyandstrongrelevancebeYw∞nPlandF＆Keywords：Windpower；Reliabilityevaluation；Failuremodeandeffectanalysis(FMEA)；Windspeedd