人民升值對(duì)我國(guó)外貿(mào)影響的外文翻譯

1、<p>　　The impact of RMB appreciation </p><p>　　As the comprehensive strength of the national economy grows, the Chinese currency, the Renminbi (RMB) began to appreciate. Effects of the RMB's appreci

2、ation since July have been felt both domestically and abroad, and will become even more significant with time. China should embrace the new opportunities that appreciation has opened-up and allow more room for the nation

3、al economy to grow in the process of globalization. </p><p>　　People need to be aware that the appreciation of the RMB may have some less desirable effects on economic growth in the short term. Currently, Ch

4、ina's export market still relies heavily on cheap labor to compete in the international market. As its added value is low, the appreciation of the RMB will affect China's export and consequently the overall growt

5、h rate of the national economy. However, there are also many positive aspects to the appreciation of the RMB. In the long run, RMB appreciation</p><p>　　First of all, it will accelerate industrial upgrading.

6、 In a market economy, the fluctuation of the foreign exchange rate involves the international balance of incomes and expenses and is an important price indicator. The appreciation of the RMB means that the price of vario

7、us domestic resources, especially land and labor, will go up in relative terms and this will speed up necessary adjustments to the commodity mix and domestic industry. RMB appreciation will gradually change the value of

8、the in</p><p>　　Secondly, it will promote technical innovation. In many countries, technical innovation relies primarily on a market mechanism which makes good use of price as a lever. China's production

9、 process is enormously costly in terms of resources and energy, and labor is too cheap. The appreciation of the RMB will cause an increase in the domestic prices of such things as land and labor as well stimulate the dem

10、and for innovation. Products for export must rely on technological innovation to be more comp</p><p>　　Thirdly, the appreciation of the RMB will benefit the people. On the one hand, it will make imported pro

11、ducts relatively cheaper. It will also be cheaper for Chinese to travel abroad. This will increase consumption. On the other hand, it will push up the market price of domestic financial assets, changing the financial mar

12、ket structure. If other conditions don't change, Chinese people will feel richer as the value of their money grows and further stimulates domestic demand. Of greater strategic </p><p>　　RMB appreciation

13、reflects the success of Chinese economic development after reform and opening up. It is also an important turning point in China's social and economic situation. The downsides to RMB appreciation shouldn't be ove

14、remphasized. The fluctuation of the RMB is the result of changes to the current economic structure and will have an important impact on the economic structure of the future. Maintaining the status quo is short-sighted an

15、d will harm the long-term interests of China. The b</p><p>　　With the announcement of reforming the RMB exchange rate regime on July 21, 2005, great attention has been paid to the impacts of RMB’s appreciati

16、on on China’s trade. Since China being in the transition from pegging to a managed floating regime, no existing approximate model and method can be utilized to investigate this question directly. In this paper, scenario

17、analysis technique is used to give a study on this issue, coupled with the introduction of the substituted valuables: Japanese yen and</p><p>　　The RMB exchange rate became a hot topic after the announcement

18、 of exchange</p><p>　　rate regime reform on July 21, 2005. The new regime, a managed floating exchange rate regime based on market supply and demand with reference to a basket of currencies, allows RMB to ri

19、se by 2%, with a daily 0.3% trading band based on the price of the previous day. With its rapid development, China’s economy has become an increasingly important element in the global economic development and integration

20、. Against this backdrop, the impacts of RMB’s appreciation on China’s trade attract great atten</p><p>　　Before this reform of RMB, there has emerged a vast theoretical literature concentrated on the impacts

21、 of RMB’s revaluation. However, relatively little research has been undertaken on the empirical analysis of this issue. Cyn-Young Park (2005), an economist in Asian Development Bank, analyzed macroeconomic impact of a “o

22、ne-off ” appreciation of the RMB against the dollar using the Oxford Economic Forecasting model. This work may shed light on the dynamics between global imbalances and revaluatio</p><p>　　The main body of ex

23、isting literature, however, has so far mostly centered on quantitative discussion describing the relation between trade and exchange rate. There has been surprisingly little empirical work that focus on the exchange rate

24、 regime shift, especially from pegging to the US dollar to a managed floating regime, No existing appropriate model or method can be found to support this kind of research directly. Therefore, some indirect methods shoul

25、d be experimented for studying this issue</p><p>　　In this paper, scenario analysis technique is used to give a sensitivity analysis of China’s trade to the appreciation of RMB. The first type of scenarios i

26、s a hypothetic scenario being related with the current appreciation of RMB by 2%; while the second one that belongs to the historical scenario is based on the historical event---the Japanese yen’s variability after subsc

27、ribing “Plaza Accord”.The remaining part of this paper is organized as follows. The theory and method of scenario analyses a</p><p>　　Scenario analysis (Committee on the Global Financial System, 2000) is a k

28、ind of stress testing which serves to estimate potential extreme losses of a portfolio value and give helpful suggestions to the decision makers in risk management of a company or a financial institution. Generally, scen

29、ario is a means to explore the future economic situation, and identify what might happen and how an organization can act or react upon future developments.</p><p>　　The RMB’s appreciation should undoubtedly

30、generate extensive and far-reaching implication for China’s economy, especially for exports. This research should be based on establishing and testing econometric models. We establish the evaluatd models for export and t

31、rading forms respectively. In the following empirical work, these models are used in the scenario analysis of China’s trade. The sample data are collected over the period from Jan. 2005. Data on export and import are tak

32、en from China’s Cu</p><p>　　In this paper, the scenario analysis is used to analyze the effects of RMB’s appreciation on China’s trade in 2005 and 2006. Our evidence shows that China’s exports would continue

33、 to keep a strong increasing trend in the hypothetical scenario being a one-off appreciation of 2%. Seen from the current situation about RMB, the similar favorable results may be expected to occur if RMB exchange rate r

34、egime would mark a sound operation. Therefore, we conclude that China’s eaports would not be affected</p><p>　　By People's Daily Online; The author, Chen Feixiang, is the Director of the Economic and Fin

35、ancial Deparment of Tongji University. </p><p>　　JEL Classification: C53, F17, F31</p><p>　　Key words: RMB’s appreciation, China’s trade, Scenario analysis</p><p><b>　　人民幣升值的影

36、響</b></p><p>　　隨著國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)的綜合實(shí)力的增長(zhǎng)，中國(guó)的貨幣，人民幣開(kāi)始升值。隨著7月以來(lái)人民幣升值的影響已在國(guó)內(nèi)外被感受到，而且隨著時(shí)間的推移將變得更加顯著。中國(guó)應(yīng)把握升值帶來(lái)的新的機(jī)遇，允許更多的在全球化進(jìn)程中國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的空間。</p><p>　　人們需要知道，人民幣升值在短期內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)可能有一些不太理想的效果。目前，中國(guó)的出口市場(chǎng)仍然依賴大量廉價(jià)勞動(dòng)力在國(guó)

37、際市場(chǎng)上競(jìng)爭(zhēng)。由于其附加值低，人民幣升值將影響中國(guó)的出口，進(jìn)一步影響到國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)的整體增長(zhǎng)速度。然而，人民幣升值也有很多積極的方面。從長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)來(lái)看，人民幣升值將產(chǎn)生更多的發(fā)展機(jī)遇。人會(huì)感到更加富有，它會(huì)提高中國(guó)在世界經(jīng)濟(jì)中的地位和影響力，它會(huì)改變商品結(jié)構(gòu)和投資的流動(dòng)。在國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)資源的結(jié)構(gòu)方面，它也將有重大影響力。</p><p>　　首先，它將加快產(chǎn)業(yè)升級(jí)。在市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)中，匯率的波動(dòng)涉及到國(guó)際收支平衡，也是一個(gè)重要的價(jià)格

38、指標(biāo)。人民幣升值意味著國(guó)內(nèi)外各種資源的價(jià)格，特別是土地和勞動(dòng)力，將會(huì)上升，而這加快必要的調(diào)整商品結(jié)構(gòu)和國(guó)內(nèi)同行業(yè)。人民幣升值將逐步改變了國(guó)際和國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)的價(jià)值。國(guó)內(nèi)企業(yè)將更多地依靠國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)的銷(xiāo)售，使國(guó)家的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)是減少對(duì)依賴出口的需求，將形成一個(gè)較為合理的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)。</p><p>　　其次，它會(huì)促進(jìn)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新。在許多國(guó)家，技術(shù)創(chuàng)新主要依靠市場(chǎng)機(jī)制，這使得利用好價(jià)格杠桿。中國(guó)的生產(chǎn)過(guò)程是極其浪費(fèi)資源和能源，勞動(dòng)力太便

39、宜。人民幣升值將導(dǎo)勞動(dòng)力和土地等要素的國(guó)內(nèi)價(jià)格的上升，以及刺激創(chuàng)新的需求。出口產(chǎn)品必須依靠技術(shù)創(chuàng)新，變得更具國(guó)際競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力。在國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)，企業(yè)也被迫通過(guò)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新競(jìng)爭(zhēng)。簡(jiǎn)單地說(shuō)，人民幣升值將導(dǎo)致市場(chǎng)環(huán)境的形成，有利于加快技術(shù)創(chuàng)新。</p><p>　　第三，人民幣升值將造福于人民。一方面，它將使進(jìn)口產(chǎn)品相對(duì)便宜。這也將使中國(guó)人出國(guó)旅游便宜。這將增加消費(fèi)。另一方面，將推動(dòng)國(guó)內(nèi)金融資產(chǎn)的市場(chǎng)價(jià)格，改變了金融市場(chǎng)的結(jié)構(gòu)。如果其

40、他條件不改變，中國(guó)人民將感到更加富裕，隨著其貨幣價(jià)值的增長(zhǎng)，并進(jìn)一步刺激國(guó)內(nèi)需求。更具戰(zhàn)略意義的事實(shí)是，人民幣升值將使中國(guó)的勞動(dòng)力價(jià)格更高。</p><p>　　人民幣升值，反映了改革開(kāi)放后中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的成功。這也是在中國(guó)的社會(huì)和經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)的重要轉(zhuǎn)折點(diǎn)。不應(yīng)過(guò)分強(qiáng)調(diào)人民幣升值的缺點(diǎn)。人民幣的波動(dòng)是當(dāng)前的經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)變化的結(jié)果，將對(duì)未來(lái)的經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)產(chǎn)生重要影響。維持現(xiàn)狀是短視的，將損害中國(guó)的長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)利益。最好的選擇是加快經(jīng)濟(jì)增

41、長(zhǎng)方式的轉(zhuǎn)變和適應(yīng)人民幣升值，從而在整個(gè)過(guò)程中獲得最大收益。</p><p>　　在2005年7月21日，人民幣匯率制度改革的公告中，高度重視已支付人民幣升值對(duì)中國(guó)的貿(mào)易的影響。由于中國(guó)在過(guò)渡掛有管理的浮動(dòng)匯率制度，沒(méi)有現(xiàn)成的近似模型和方法可以利用直接調(diào)查這個(gè)問(wèn)題。在本文中，情景分析技術(shù)是用來(lái)給在這個(gè)問(wèn)題上的研究，再加上引進(jìn)的替代貴重物品：日元和歐元的匯率。我們的研究結(jié)果表明，人民幣升值不會(huì)在2005年對(duì)中國(guó)的貿(mào)

42、易帶來(lái)嚴(yán)重影響，然而，出口增長(zhǎng)可能在2006年持續(xù)下降應(yīng)該引起高度重視。推進(jìn)人民幣匯率制度的改革，并提出了相關(guān)的配套政策，以避免日本的情況，如“廣場(chǎng)協(xié)議”后突然波動(dòng)，這也是必要和迫切。</p><p>　　匯率制度改革后公布的匯率，特別是人民幣匯率成為一個(gè)熱門(mén)話題。2005年7月21日，新的匯率制度——有管理的浮動(dòng)匯率制度，根據(jù)市場(chǎng)供求和參考一籃子貨幣的需求，在每天交易0.3％的基礎(chǔ)上，允許人民幣上升2％。隨著中

43、國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)快速發(fā)展，匯率已成為全球經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展和一體化的日益重要的元素。在此背景下，人民幣升值對(duì)中國(guó)的貿(mào)易的影響引起高度重視。</p><p>　　在此之前，人民幣的改革，已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)了廣大的理論文獻(xiàn)集中在人民幣升值的影響。然而，相對(duì)較少的研究已經(jīng)進(jìn)行對(duì)這一問(wèn)題的實(shí)證分析。 CYN青年公園（2005年），利用牛津經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)測(cè)模型的“一次性”升值的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)影響，在亞洲開(kāi)發(fā)銀行的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家進(jìn)行分析人民幣對(duì)美元。這項(xiàng)工作會(huì)有助于理解全球

44、經(jīng)濟(jì)失衡及重估之間的動(dòng)態(tài)曲線。 OEF模型框架允許仿真分析，基于對(duì)全球計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)，這將提供一些定量的結(jié)果，對(duì)有關(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)體，如中國(guó)，日本，美國(guó)，和亞洲其他國(guó)家受到人民幣升值的影響。但是，不能在這個(gè)模型中研究平衡狀態(tài)的穩(wěn)定性，因?yàn)橹贫鹊霓D(zhuǎn)變可能會(huì)損壞。在這些成果中中國(guó)科學(xué)院研究員認(rèn)為，人民幣升值對(duì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響可能會(huì)改變升值的規(guī)模比例。事實(shí)上，在短期內(nèi)，這一比例結(jié)果的合理性應(yīng)該被懷疑。</p><p>　　但是，到目

45、前為止，現(xiàn)有文獻(xiàn)的主體大多集中討論貿(mào)易和匯率之間的關(guān)系的定量描述。一直有一點(diǎn)令人驚訝的工作經(jīng)驗(yàn)，即沒(méi)有現(xiàn)成的合適的模型或方法。我們應(yīng)重點(diǎn)對(duì)匯率制度的轉(zhuǎn)變，特別是從盯住美元的有管理的浮動(dòng)制度，可以發(fā)現(xiàn)直接支持這方面的研究。一些間接的方法應(yīng)嘗試推出替代變量研究這個(gè)問(wèn)題。</p><p>　　在本文中，情景分析技術(shù)被用來(lái)給出一個(gè)中國(guó)的貿(mào)易人民幣升值的敏感性分析。第一種類(lèi)型的場(chǎng)景，是一個(gè)假設(shè)的情景，與目前的2％人民幣升值

46、有關(guān)，而第二個(gè)屬于歷史場(chǎng)景，基于對(duì)歷史事件簽署“廣場(chǎng)協(xié)議”后日元的變異。本文其余部分安排如下：情景分析的理論和方法，介紹了在第2節(jié)。模型和他們的評(píng)價(jià)是在第3節(jié)所述。從情景分析的預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果是在第4節(jié)。</p><p>　　情景分析（全球金融體系委員會(huì)，2000年）的壓力測(cè)試是一種可以用來(lái)估計(jì)潛在的極端損失的投資組合價(jià)值和公司風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的決策者或金融機(jī)構(gòu)提供有益的建議。一般來(lái)說(shuō)，場(chǎng)景是一個(gè)手段，探索未來(lái)的經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)，并確定

47、可能會(huì)發(fā)生什么和如何組織可以根據(jù)未來(lái)發(fā)展的行動(dòng)或反應(yīng)。</p><p>　　人民幣升值無(wú)疑對(duì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生廣泛和深遠(yuǎn)的意義，尤其是出口，應(yīng)該在研究的基礎(chǔ)上建立和測(cè)試計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)模型。我們分別建立了出口和貿(mào)易形式的評(píng)價(jià)模型。在下面的實(shí)證研究中，對(duì)這些模型在中國(guó)的貿(mào)易情況分析且收集了從2005年1月期間的樣本數(shù)據(jù)。從中國(guó)的海關(guān)統(tǒng)計(jì)出口和進(jìn)口數(shù)據(jù)的匯率數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)自不列顛哥倫比亞省大學(xué)的網(wǎng)站。</p><p&g

48、t;　　在本文中，使用情景分析來(lái)分析人民幣升值對(duì)中國(guó)的貿(mào)易在2005年和2006年的影響。我們的證據(jù)表明，中國(guó)的出口將繼續(xù)保持強(qiáng)勢(shì)增長(zhǎng)趨勢(shì)，在假設(shè)情景，一次性升值2％。約合人民幣從目前的情況看，類(lèi)似有利的結(jié)果，預(yù)計(jì)可能發(fā)生，如果人民幣匯率制度將標(biāo)志著一個(gè)穩(wěn)健經(jīng)營(yíng)。因此，我們得出結(jié)論，中國(guó)的出口將不會(huì)受到影響目前人民幣升值，2005年將保持上升趨勢(shì)。另一方面，盡管中國(guó)的出口這不僅造福中國(guó)的強(qiáng)勁經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展，而且還從的強(qiáng)勁出口貨物的國(guó)際競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力發(fā)