中國糧食產(chǎn)量預(yù)測模型研究.pdf

1、河南科技大學(xué)碩士學(xué)位論文中國糧食產(chǎn)量預(yù)測模型研究姓名：李曉東申請學(xué)位級別：碩士專業(yè)：管理科學(xué)與工程指導(dǎo)教師：席升陽王伯良20080601摘要IISubject:ResearchontheFecastModelofChinaGrainProductionSpecialty:ManagementScienceEngineeringName:LiXiaodongSupervis:ProfessXiShengyangProfessWangBol

2、iangABSTRACTAgricultureisthefoundationofthenationaleconomywhilegrainisthebasisfthefoundation.Chinaisadevelopingcountrywithlargepopulationsothefoodissueisthetoppriityofthenationaleconomywithimptantstrategicposition.Theana

3、lysisofthechangerulethetendencyfecastofthegrainproductionnotonlyprovidesdecisionmakingfthefmulationofthegrainpolicytheimplementationofgrainproductionsystemcontrolbutalsohastheimptantpracticalsignificancetofoodsecurity.On

4、thebasisofanalysisofthegrainproductionsystemontheonehstudyingthechangesrulefromthetimeseriesofthegrainyieldcombinedwiththeacteristicsofgreysystemtheytoanalyzesmallsampleundeterminedproblemsestablishestheGM(11)modelembedd

5、edknowledgefgrainproductionfecastingresultsshowthatthismodelnotonlyhasgoodfittingaccuracybutalsocandescribethefuturedevelopmenttrendofgrainproductionwithbetterextrapolationpredictableperfmance.ontheotherhresearchingthech

6、angerulefromtherelationshipbetweenthegrainyielditsinfluencingfactscombinedtheadvantagesofsupptvectmachinetosolvelearningproblemssuchassmallsamplenonlinearhighdimensionlocalminimumproposedthesupptvectmachinemodelfgrainpro

7、ductionfecasting.Empiricalresultsshowthatthemodelcanreflectwellthecomplexnonlinearrelationshipbetweengrainyielditsprincipalfactwithhighaccuracyprecisionfitting.ThegrainproductionfecastingbasedonthedynamicGM(11)modelembed

8、dedknowledgethesupptvectmachineregressionseparatelyfromthesuperficialinternalstructureacteristicsofthegrainproductionsystemstudyoperationmechanismwhichcanreflectwellthesystemchangeessencecanbeusedasaneffectivetoolffecast