演化博弈視角下發(fā)電企業(yè)日前市場競價實證研究.pdf

1、湖南大學碩士學位論文演化博弈視角下發(fā)電企業(yè)日前市場競價實證研究姓名：莫艷梅申請學位級別：碩士專業(yè)：技術經(jīng)濟及管理指導教師：馬超群20080429演化博弈視角下發(fā)電企業(yè)日前市場競價實證研究AbstractThem咖pu印oseofelectricpo、Ⅳerm破etrefomist11rou曲tllein仃oductioncompetition，realizingtheresourcesoptimizationtodisposeaIldt

2、ouse，soastoproVideacheapera11dmorereliableelectricpowerforthesocietyOurcount巧’selectricpowerma伙etrefonnstartedfromt11emid1990sThroughforeignpowermarkettheoriesandpracticalexperience，ourcoumryc枷edonthereorgallizationofass

3、etsandtheexperimentinsomeprovince，andgraduallyfomedanelectricma伙ettohaVepowergenerationcompalliespanicipateinthecompetitioninmedayaheadelectricmarketprim撕lyHowtodetemlinethemostsuperiorpricestrategytoobtainthebiggestprof

4、itaccordingtotheunitperfonIlancein仕Ieday—alleadelectricpowermarket，whichistheproblemaIldchallengefacedbytlleelectricitygenerationcoII]lpanyFirstly，thispaperintroducesthedeVelopmemoftheeVolutiong鋤etheo巧andtheevolutionaril

5、ystablestrategy，aIldotherrelatedconc印ts，a11dmerhaVinga11alyzedtheotherdaytheelectricpowermarketoperationmechanismandtheelectricitygenerationpriVatecosts向nction，mispaperestablishesapricedecisionmakingstrategyfortheelectri

6、citygenerationcompaIlyThenaccordingtotheClay—aheadelectricpo、vermarketlscharacteristica11dtheelectricitygenerationeme印rise’sg鋤blingcharacteristic，“sp印erhasselectedoneofthetypicalevolutionmodels—aduplicationdyn鋤icmodel0nt

7、hebasisofcerEainass啪ptions，weobtainedtwotypesofpowergenerationenterprises’eVolutionar)，g鋤eofthegainmatrix，andfuIrthersolVedtheduplicationdyn鋤=licmodelinsimplifiedfomAt1astbyunifyingmeEastChina’sday—aheadelectricpowermark

8、etsit呦tion，theelectricitygenerationcompany’spricedecisionma“ngstrategyisc硎edontheempiricalanalysis，whichrevealsthatthemarketdemandandthepricec印onpo、ⅣercompaIlieshaVeinnuenceonpricingstrategyTheempiricalanalysisindicated：

9、Whentheelectricpo、^，ersuppliesareaIlxious，theelectricitygenerationente叩risewillusethehi曲兩cestrategy；whentheelectricpowersuppliesareabundant，theelectricitygenerationente印risewillactaccordingtothedia’erentmarketconditiont0

10、carryontheselectivequotedpriceatlastWhenprice—capishigh，theelectricitygenerationente叩rise謝Utendtoselecthi曲price；when研cec印reduces，probabilityofselectinghighpricewillalseduceTheI、mctionofprice—captolimittheprice’sriseisrel

11、narkableonthebaLsisofa11alysisincompaIly’seVolutiong鋤ebehaviorintheday—aheadelectricpo、verma伙et，thispapercreativelyutilizedtheduplicationdyn鋤icmodeltocarryontheempiricalanalysisT11isresearchpr0Videdthetheoryinstmctionfor