2018年四季度策略展望估值低位，靜待修復性行情

1、正文目錄正文目錄一、市場表現(xiàn)與內(nèi)外環(huán)境：內(nèi)外壓力致使估值下行...................................51.1市場表現(xiàn)：三季度估值下行..................................................51.2國內(nèi)：嚴控地產(chǎn)與放松基建托底需求.........................................71.3海外：經(jīng)濟后周期與緊縮延續(xù)...........

2、....................................9二、市場趨勢：靜待修復性行情..................................................112.1盈利短期有一定韌性......................................................112.1.1盈利向大市值公司集中趨勢明顯.............................1

3、12.1.2四季度A股主板盈利增速仍有韌性......................................122.2風險偏好可能有所改善....................................................132.2.1估值處于歷史低位顯示當前是底部區(qū)域..................................132.2.2情緒指標顯示風險偏好可能修復性回升............

4、......................142.3微觀資金面難有大的改善..................................................15三、行業(yè)配置：業(yè)績主線，均衡配置..............................................163.1從宏觀和估值角度選取金融、消費等藍籌.....................................163.1.1宏

5、觀環(huán)境指向金融和消費..............................................163.1.2估值和盈利匹配度角度篩選藍籌.........................................173.2歷史角度看反彈的領(lǐng)漲行業(yè).................................................18風險提示..............................

6、........................................20圖42：年底解禁壓力上升......................................................16圖43：工業(yè)企業(yè)利潤增速回落對周期不利........................................16圖44：工業(yè)利潤增速回落有利于消費................................

7、............16圖45：信用利差上升顯著不利于周期............................................17圖46：信用利差上升對消費有利................................................17圖47：銀行、房地產(chǎn)、家電等ROEPB較高......................................18圖48：食品飲料、銀行等每股盈利較

8、高..........................................18圖49：有色金屬產(chǎn)能周期指標上行..............................................18圖50：國防軍工產(chǎn)能周期指標企穩(wěn)..............................................18圖51：計算機產(chǎn)能周期指標上行................................