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1、ContentsPIVOTALQUESTIONS...................................................................................4Q:CanChina’srailwaysystemgeneratereasonablereturns......................4WhatprogressisChinasrailwaysystemmaking

2、...................5OverviewofChina’srailwaysystem.............................................................5Financialsstillweakbutimprovementswitnessed........................................6Aggressiveexpansionleads

3、tohighleverage...............................................8WhatcanChinalearnfromdevelopedcountries..................10ChinasHSRlengthdominatewhileoperationsstilltoimprove..................10CasestudyofJapan:privatisat

4、ionisthekeydriver.....................................16CasestudyofEurope:deregulationasalongtermcatalyst.......................20WhatcandevelopingcountrieslearnfromChina.................22HSRoperationmightitselfgenerate

5、goodreturns.....................................22Whatsbeyondthefinancialbenefits.......................................................23Leveragingthecapitalmarkettofinancerailwayinvestments....................27Casestu

6、diesofChineseHSRs.......................................................................29WHATSPRICEDIN.........................................................33ChinarailwayrelatedresearchreviewChinaRailwaydetailedanaly

7、sis#3:HowwillhighwaytorailwayconversionaffectfreighttransptationinChina1142019ChinaRailwaydetailedanalysis#2:UBSEvidenceLab:WhatdidweobservefromouranalysisofHSRcommutetimes832018ChinaRailwaydetailedanalysis#1:UBSEvidence

8、Lab:howsignificantisthehighspeedrailwaywkeffect732018ChinaConstruction:UBSEvidenceLabinside:frombuilderstooperatswhatisthemarketmissinginPPP5292019ChinaRailway:UBSEvidenceLabInside:readthroughsfromtheChinadomestictravels

9、urvey3112019ChinaRailway:Whatcanweexpectfromrailwayrefm352019ChinaRailway:Revisingup2020railwayFAItoRmb850bnahisticalhigh892018ChinaRailwaySectUBSResearchPIVOTALQUESTIONSreturn?Q:CanChina’srailwaysystemgeneratereasonable

10、returnsUBSVIEWYes.Wethinkreasonablefinancialreturnscouldbeachievedbyincreasingvolumetariffsleveragingrailwaywksrefmingtariffstructures.Ontopofthefinancialreturnswebelievetherearealsosignificanteconomicsocialbenefitswhich

11、tendtobedifficulttoquantify.WeconsiderChinasHSRexpansionareplicablemodelfotherdevelopingcountries.EVIDENCE1)UBSEvidenceLabscommutingtimeanalysisof172HSRlinesfeedbackfromtravellersinitsdomestictravelsurveysuggesthigheruti

12、lisationofHSRsapotentialHSRwkexpansion.2)OurcasestudiesofJapan’sEuropesrailwaysystemsindicateflexibletariffschemesadiversifiedbusinesscouldhelpimproveoperatingprofits.3)OurindepthanalysisofHSR’sreturnshighlightsvariousbe

13、nefitsofanaggressiveexpansionoftheHSRwkincludingboostingtourismacceleratingurbanisationalleviatingpoverty.4)OurcasestudiesoftwoofChinasmostprofitableHSRsalsoChinasrailwayfootprintsabroadsuggestChina’sHSRmodelisaprofitabl

14、ebusinessmodelfotherdevelopingcountriestofollow.WHATSPRICEDINWethinkthemarkethasbeencautiousaboutChineseHSR’slowreturnhighleverage.Inadditionwesuggestthemarketdoesnotexpectrailwayrefmstoincreasetariffspromoteassetinjecti

15、onsfChina’sexistingrailwayoperatsasthishasbeendelayedfalongtime.InveststendtoquestionthehighleverageofChinasrailwaysystemespeciallythegovernmentsfocusonHSRinthepastdecade.UBSEvidenceLab’sproprietaryanalysisofrailwaysyste

16、msinChinaJapanEuropeindicatedthat:1)Chinahasthemostextensiverailwaywkinthewldbutitspricingoperatingmechanismstillhaveroomtoimprove2)thereisfinancialupsideinoperatingHSRsthroughvolumetariffimprovementswhilecostsarerelativ

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