簡介：9300英文單詞，英文單詞，53萬英文字符，中文萬英文字符，中文16萬字萬字文獻出處文獻出處SMITHITHELAWANDECONOMICSOFMARRIAGECONTRACTSJJOURNALOFECONOMICSURVEYS,2003,172201225THELAWANDECONOMICSOFMARRIAGECONTRACTSIANSMITHABSTRACTGROWTHINPROPERTYOWNERSHIPHASRAISEDTHESTAKESINTHEDISTRIBUTIONOFFINANCIALASSETSONDIVORCEGIVENHIGHRISKSOFMARITALFAILURE,THISHASSTIMULATEDTHEDEMANDFORPRIVATEORDERINGTHROUGHENFORCEABLEMARRIAGECONTRACTSTHISPAPERSURVEYSTHEEXISTINGLAWANDECONOMICSLITERATUREANDLEGALPRACTICETOCONSIDERTHESTATEOFKNOWLEDGEONTHEECONOMICTHEORY,SCOPEANDLIMITSOFWRITTENNUPTIALAGREEMENTSKEYWORDSMARRIAGECONTRACTSPRENUPTIALAGREEMENTSMARITALPROPERTY1INTRODUCTIONWHILETHEREISMUCHSCHOLARLYINVESTIGATIONOFTHEFINANCIALCONSEQUENCESOFMARITALBREAKDOWN,1DISCUSSIONOFTHEPRIVATEREGULATIONOFSUCHOUTCOMESUSINGMARRIAGECONTRACTSISLESSSYSTEMATICTHETOPICOFMARITALCONTRACTINGTOALTERTHEDIVORCEENTITLEMENTSOFTHEPARTIESRECEIVES,FOREXAMPLE,ONLYBRIEFCOMMENTSINTHESTANDARDSURVEYSOFTHEECONOMICSOFTHEFAMILYOFFEREDBYBECKER1991,BERGSTROM19961997,CABRILLO1999,CIGNO1991,ERMISCH1993,GROSSBARDSHECHTMAN1993,POLLAK1985ANDWEISS1997EMPIRICALLY,THEMOSTFREQUENTTYPEOFMARITALCONTRACTINCOMMONLAWJURISDICTIONSISTHEEXPOSTSEPARATIONAGREEMENTDRAFTEDFOLLOWINGMARRIAGEBREAKDOWNSUCHPOSTMARITALSEPARATIONAGREEMENTSARETYPICALLYPREFERREDTOAJUDICIALLYDETERMINEDDIVORCESETTLEMENTBOTHBYDIVORCINGCOUPLESFARMERANDTIEFENTHALER,2001ANDBYCOURTSWHICHRARELYSETASIDEPRIVATELYNEGOTIATEDSOLUTIONSLESSNUMEROUSAREEXANTESEPARATIONAGREEMENTS,COMPRISINGBOTHPRENUPTIALCONTRACTSWRITTENPRIORTOMARRIAGEANDTHOSENEGOTIATEDDURINGACONTINUINGMARRIAGEEXPOSTSEPARATIONAGREEMENTS,SIGNEDATDIVORCE,ARERELATIVELYUNCONTROVERSIALANDHAVELESSANALYTICALLYINTERESTINGCHARACTERISTICSTHANMARITALCONTRACTSNEGOTIATEDEITHERASACONDITIONOFTHEWEDDINGORDURINGANONGOINGMARRIAGETHEDIFFERENCEINTHEORETICALSIGNIFICANCEARISESBECAUSE,INTHECASEOFEXPOSTSEPARATIONAGREEMENTS,EXECUTIONANDENFORCEMENTAREALMOSTCONTEMPORANEOUSWHEREASMARITALCONTRACTSREQUIRECONTINGENTCONTRACTINGOVERAPOSSIBLYDISTANTANDUNCERTAINFUTUREEVENTTHECONSEQUENCEISTHATMARRIAGECONTRACTSINVOLVEISSUESOFRENEGOTIATIONANDSIGNALLING,ASWELLASTHEBARGAININGPROBLEMSTHATALSOARISEWITHPOSTMARITALSEPARATIONAGREEMENTSASCONTRACTINGONSEPARATIONISWELLANALYZEDBYMNOOKINANDKORNHAUSER1979ANDTREBILCOCKANDKEVSHANI1991ITWILLBELARGELYIGNOREDINWHATFOLLOWSCONTRIBUTIONSOUTLININGTHETHEORYANDPRACTICEOFNUPTIALAGREEMENTSDRAWFROMTHELITERATUREONLAWANDECONOMICSANDTHEECONOMICSOFCONTRACTS2MOSTOFTHEDISCUSSIONISRECENT,WITHONLYAFEWPUBLISHEDSTUDIESINENGLISHPRIORTOWEITZMAN1981ASTHEFIELDISRELATIVELYNEW,ANDTHEENFORCEABILITYOFEXANTEMARRIAGECONTRACTSCONTROVERSIALINSOMEJURISDICTIONS,MANYOFTHECONTRIBUTIONSTOTHETOPICHAVEADISTINCTLYNORMATIVEASWELLASANALYTICALFLAVOURWRITERSGENERALLYFAVOURABLETOMARITALCONTRACTSINCLUDEBECKERANDBECKER1997,BIX1998,DNES2000,GROSSBARDSHECHTMANANDLEMENNICIER1999,MARSTON1997,RASMUSENANDSTAKE1998,SCOTTANDSCOTT19981999,TREBILCOCK1999,TREBILCOCKANDKESHVANI1991,WAX1998,WEITZMAN1981ANDYOUNGER19881992SCEPTICSINCLUDEBRINIG2000,BROD1994,COHEN19872002,DIFONZO2000,FRANK1988,MCLELLAN1996,NASHERI1998,NEAVEOWNRELATIONSHIPTERMS,ISTHECOROLLARYOFITSINCREASINGCONCEPTUALIZATIONINTERMSOFRIGHTSTOPROPERTYBELL1997ARGUESFROMANANTHROPOLOGICALPERSPECTIVETHATMARRIAGETRADITIONALLYCONFERREDRIGHTSONAHUSBANDOFSEXUALACCESSTOHISWIFEHOWEVER,INNOVATIONSINFEMALECONTRACEPTIVETECHNOLOGYANDTHELEGALIZATIONOFABORTIONHAVEGIVENGREATERSEXUALANDREPRODUCTIVEAUTONOMYTOWOMENMARRIAGEISNOLONGERDEFINEDSOMUCHINTERMSOFSEXUALRIGHTSBUTRATHERINTERMSOFECONOMICRIGHTSANDCONSEQUENCESITISDISTINGUISHEDFROMNONMARITALCOHABITATIONBYITSIMPLICATIONSFORPROPERTYDIVISION,PENSION,HOUSING,FISCALANDINHERITANCEBENEFITS,ASWELLASBYGREATERENTRYANDEXITCOSTSTHISISTRUEEVENINCOUNTRIESSUCHASSWEDENWHICHSEEKNEUTRALTREATMENTOFDIFFERENTFAMILYFORMSSWEDISHLAWTYPICALLYTREATSNEARLYALLSPOUSALPROPERTYASMARITAL,TOBEPOOLEDANDDIVIDEDEQUALLYONDIVORCE,WHEREASTHATOFCOHABITANTSISTREATEDASSEPARATEPROPERTYBRADLEY,1996INSOFARASTHEINSTITUTIONOFMARRIAGEISCONCEIVEDPRIMARILYINTERMSOFFINANCIALEFFECTS,THISWILLNATURALLYLENDITSELFTOPRIVATECONTRACTINGMOREOVER,MANYLEGALCOMMENTATORSHAVENOTEDARETREATFROMTHEREGULATIONOFMARRIAGEINFAMILYLAW,CREATINGACLIMATEFAVOURABLETOMARITALCONTRACTINGINPARTICULAR,THEFOCUSISSHIFTINGFROMTHELEGALOBLIGATIONSOFPARTNERSTOTHOSEOFPARENTSCARBONE,2000THEMOVEFROMPARTNERSTOPARENTSISEVIDENTINTHEADVENTOFTHECLEANBREAKPHILOSOPHYTHATSEVERSSPOUSALFINANCIALRESPONSIBILITIESINTHEDIVORCESETTLEMENTBUTSTRICTLYENFORCESCONTINUINGCHILDSUPPORTPAYMENTSTHETRENDTOWARDSTHEPRIVATIZATIONOFMARRIAGEISALSOAPPARENTINTHEMODERNEMPHASISONNOFAULTDIVORCE,ANDALTERNATIVENONLITIGIOUSDISPUTERESOLUTIONPROCEDURES,SUCHASMEDIATION,TORESOLVEMARITALCONFLICTSOBSERVINGTHEINCREASINGSELFDETERMINATIONOFOBLIGATIONS,DIFONZO2000POSITSTHATDEVELOPEDCOUNTRIESAREEXPERIENCINGATRANSITIONTOVARIABLEORCUSTOMIZEDMARRIAGEHERALDEDBYLEPACSINFRANCEANDREGISTEREDPARTNERSHIPSINTHENETHERLANDS,SCANDINAVIAANDELSEWHEREMOREGENERALLY,MARRIAGECONTRACTSARECONSISTENTWITHCHANGESINPOLITICALCULTURETHATFAVOURINDIVIDUALAUTONOMYOVERSTATEIMPOSEDSOLUTIONSHOWEVER,THEUSEOFMARITALAGREEMENTSISNOTNEWMARRIAGESETTLEMENTSHAVEHISTORICA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簡介：THELAWANDECONOMICSOFMARRIAGECONTRACTSIANSMITHUNIVERSITYOFSTANDREWSABSTRACTGROWTHINPROPERTYOWNERSHIPHASRAISEDTHESTAKESINTHEDISTRIBUTIONOFFINANCIALASSETSONDIVORCEGIVENHIGHRISKSOFMARITALFAILURE,THISHASSTIMULATEDTHEDEMANDFORPRIVATEORDERINGTHROUGHENFORCEABLEMARRIAGECONTRACTSTHISPAPERSURVEYSTHEEXISTINGLAWANDECONOMICSLITERATUREANDLEGALPRACTICETOCONSIDERTHESTATEOFKNOWLEDGEONTHEECONOMICTHEORY,SCOPEANDLIMITSOFWRITTENNUPTIALAGREEMENTSKEYWORDSMARRIAGECONTRACTSPRENUPTIALAGREEMENTSMARITALPROPERTY1INTRODUCTIONWHILETHEREISMUCHSCHOLARLYINVESTIGATIONOFTHEFINANCIALCONSEQUENCESOFMARITALBREAKDOWN,1DISCUSSIONOFTHEPRIVATEREGULATIONOFSUCHOUTCOMESUSINGMARRIAGECONTRACTSISLESSSYSTEMATICTHETOPICOFMARITALCONTRACTINGTOALTERTHEDIVORCEENTITLEMENTSOFTHEPARTIESRECEIVES,FOREXAMPLE,ONLYBRIEFCOMMENTSINTHESTANDARDSURVEYSOFTHEECONOMICSOFTHEFAMILYOFFEREDBYBECKER1991,BERGSTROM19961997,CABRILLO1999,CIGNO1991,ERMISCH1993,GROSSBARDSHECHTMAN1993,POLLAK1985ANDWEISS1997EMPIRICALLY,THEMOSTFREQUENTTYPEOFMARITALCONTRACTINCOMMONLAWJURISDICTIONSISTHEEXPOSTSEPARATIONAGREEMENTDRAFTEDFOLLOWINGMARRIAGEBREAKDOWNSUCHPOSTMARITALSEPARATIONAGREEMENTSARETYPICALLYPREFERREDTOAJUDICIALLYDETERMINEDDIVORCESETTLEMENTBOTHBYDIVORCINGCOUPLESFARMERANDTIEFENTHALER,2001ANDBYCOURTSWHICHRARELYSETASIDEPRIVATELYNEGOTIATEDSOLUTIONSLESSNUMEROUSAREEXANTESEPARATIONAGREEMENTS,COMPRISINGBOTHPRENUPTIALCONTRACTSWRITTENPRIORTOMARRIAGEANDTHOSENEGOTIATEDDURINGACONTINUINGMARRIAGEEXPOSTSEPARATIONAGREEMENTS,SIGNEDATDIVORCE,ARERELATIVELYUNCONTROVERSIALANDHAVELESSANALYTICALLYINTERESTINGCHARACTERISTICSTHANMARITALCONTRACTSNEGOTIATEDEITHERASACONDITIONOFTHEWEDDINGORDURINGANONGOINGMARRIAGETHEDIFFERENCEINTHEORETICALSIGNIFICANCEARISESBECAUSE,INTHECASEOFEXPOSTSEPARATIONAGREEMENTS,EXECUTIONANDENFORCEMENTAREALMOSTCONTEMPORANEOUSWHEREASMARITALCONTRACTSREQUIRECONTINGENTCONTRACTINGOVERAPOSSIBLYDISTANTANDUNCERTAINFUTUREEVENTTHECONSEQUENCEISTHATMARRIAGECONTRACTSINVOLVEISSUESOFRENEGOTIATIONANDSIGNALLING,ASWELLASTHEBARGAININGPROBLEMSTHATALSO09500804/03/020201–25JOURNALOFECONOMICSURVEYSVOL17,NO2BLACKWELLPUBLISHINGLTD2003,9600GARSINGTONROAD,OXFORDOX42DQ,UKAND350MAINST,MALDEN,MA02148,USAEQUITABLEFORAHIGHPROPORTIONOFCASESALEGALREGIMECHARACTERIZEDBYJUDICIALDISCRETION,WHILEACCOMMODATINGMARITALHETEROGENEITYTOSOMEEXTENT,INTRODUCESUNCERTAINTYOVERADJUDICATIONANDMAYPROMOTELITIGATIONONERESPONSETOTHEGREATERVARIETYOFMARITALCIRCUMSTANCES,TOMOREWIDESPREADAWARENESSOFTHEBITTERNESSOFADVERSARIALDIVORCECONFLICTS,ANDTOHIGHERFINANCIALSTAKESONDIVORCEISTHEGROWTHINDEMANDFORPRIVATEORDERINGTHROUGHMARITALCONTRACTSSPECIFYINGPOSTDISSOLUTIONENTITLEMENTSFORPROSPECTIVESPOUSES,THEPRIVATENEGOTIATIONANDINDIVIDUALIZEDTAILORINGOFDIVORCECONSEQUENCESACCORDINGTOCIRCUMSTANCESANDPREFERENCESMAYGENERATEEFFICIENCYGAINSFOREXAMPLE,TOTHEEXTENTTHATRELATIVELYEASYACCESSTOCLEANBREAK,NOFAULTDIVORCEHASATTENUATEDINCENTIVESTOINVESTINMARRIAGE,COUPLESCANPROTECTMARRIAGESPECIFICCAPITALBYCUSTOMIZINGSUPPORTOBLIGATIONSDNES,2000INADDITION,COUPLESMAYVALUETHEFREEDOMPRIVATELYTOORDERTHEIRFINANCIALAFFAIRSRATHERTHANHAVINGJUDICIALSOLUTIONSCOERCIVELYIMPOSEDBYTHESTATE,PERMITTINGAMICABLEDETERMINATIONOFPROPERTYRIGHTSPRIORTOORDURINGMARRIAGERATHERTHANLITIGIOUSLYINDIVORCEPROCEEDINGSGROSSBARDSHECHTMANANDLEMENNICIER,1999INDEED,THEREISSOMEEVIDENCETHATNEGOTIATINGADIVORCESETTLEMENTWITHOUTLEGALINTERVENTIONPROMOTESCOMPLIANCEPETERSETAL,1993ONTHESUPPLYSIDE,ALLEN1990HASARGUEDTHATTHESTATEPERMITSPRIVATEMARITALCONTRACTINGINSTEADOFIMPOSINGITSUNIFORMMARRIAGECONTRACTWHENTHEBENEFITSFROMFLEXIBILITYEXCEEDTHEJUDICIALCOSTSOFUSINGTHIRDPARTYSANCTIONSTOENSUREECONOMICJUSTICECONTEMPORARYMOVESTOWARDSTHECONTRACTUALIZATIONOFMARRIAGE,INWHICHPARTIESDEFINETHEIROWNRELATIONSHIPTERMS,ISTHECOROLLARYOFITSINCREASINGCONCEPTUALIZATIONINTERMSOFRIGHTSTOPROPERTYBELL1997ARGUESFROMANANTHROPOLOGICALPERSPECTIVETHATMARRIAGETRADITIONALLYCONFERREDRIGHTSONAHUSBANDOFSEXUALACCESSTOHISWIFEHOWEVER,INNOVATIONSINFEMALECONTRACEPTIVETECHNOLOGYANDTHELEGALIZATIONOFABORTIONHAVEGIVENGREATERSEXUALANDREPRODUCTIVEAUTONOMYTOWOMENMARRIAGEISNOLONGERDEFINEDSOMUCHINTERMSOFSEXUALRIGHTSBUTRATHERINTERMSOFECONOMICRIGHTSANDCONSEQUENCESITISDISTINGUISHEDFROMNONMARITALCOHABITATIONBYITSIMPLICATIONSFORPROPERTYDIVISION,PENSION,HOUSING,FISCALANDINHERITANCEBENEFITS,ASWELLASBYGREATERENTRYANDEXITCOSTSTHISISTRUEEVENINCOUNTRIESSUCHASSWEDENWHICHSEEKNEUTRALTREATMENTOFDIFFERENTFAMILYFORMSSWEDISHLAWTYPICALLYTREATSNEARLYALLSPOUSALPROPERTYASMARITAL,TOBEPOOLEDANDDIVIDEDEQUALLYONDIVORCE,WHEREASTHATOFCOHABITANTSISTREATEDASSEPARATEPROPERTYBRADLEY,1996INSOFARASTHEINSTITUTIONOFMARRIAGEISCONCEIVEDPRIMARILYINTERMSOFFINANCIALEFFECTS,THISWILLNATURALLYLENDITSELFTOPRIVATECONTRACTINGMOREOVER,MANYLEGALCOMMENTATORSHAVENOTEDARETREATFROMTHEREGULATIONOFMARRIAGEINFAMILYLAW,CREATINGACLIMATEFAVOURABLETOMARITALCONTRACTINGINPARTICULAR,THEFOCUSISSHIFTINGFROMTHELEGALOBLIGATIONSOFPARTNERSTOTHOSEOFPARENTSCARBONE,2000THEMOVEFROMPARTNERSTOPARENTSISEVIDENTINTHEADVENTOFTHECLEANBREAKPHILOSOPHYTHATSEVERSSPOUSALFINANCIALRESPONSIBILITIESINTHEDIVORCESETTLEMENTBUTSTRICTLYENFORCESCONTINUINGCHILDSUPPORTPAYMENTSTHETRENDTOW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簡介：REGIONALECONOMICSANEWECONOMICGEOGRAPHYPERSPECTIVEKRISTIANBEHRENSA,JACQUESFRAN?OISTHISSEA,B,C,?ACORE,UNIVERSITéCATHOLIQUEDELOUVAIN,BELGIUMBCERAS,ECOLENATIONALEDESPONTSETCHAUSSéES,FRANCECCEPR,UNITEDKINGDOMRECEIVED5AUGUST2006ACCEPTED19OCTOBER2006AVAILABLEONLINE12APRIL2007ABSTRACTWESHOWTHATTHECONCEPTSANDTOOLSDEVELOPEDINNEWECONOMICGEOGRAPHYMAYBEUSEDTOREVISITSEVERALPROBLEMSINREGIONALECONOMICSINPARTICULAR,WEWANTTOSTRESSTHEFOLLOWINGTWOPOINTSIWHATDOWEMEANBYAREGIONANDIIWHATKINDOFINTERACTIONSBETWEENREGIONSDOWEWANTTOSTUDYANDHOWTOMODELTHEMWECONCLUDEBYDISCUSSINGAFEWOPENPROBLEMSTHATSHOULDBEEXPLOREDINMOREDETAILFORREGIONALECONOMICSTOBECOMEARICHERBODYOFKNOWLEDGE?2007ELSEVIERBVALLRIGHTSRESERVEDJELCLASSIFICATIONR1KEYWORDSREGIONSREGIONALECONOMICSNEWECONOMICGEOGRAPHY1INTRODUCTIONTHISJOURNALHASBEENLAUNCHEDIN1972UNDERTHETITLEREGIONALANDURBANECONOMICS,WHICHISALMOSTTHENAMEOFTHEJELCLASSIFICATIONENTRYRTHEFIRSTPOINTWEWISHTOMAKEISTHAT,BYTHETIMETHISJOURNALWASLAUNCHED,URBANECONOMICSWASALREADYAWELLESTABLISHEDFIELDDRAWINGONNEWCONCEPTSANDTOOLSBYCONTRAST,THESCIENTIFICSTATUSOFREGIONALECONOMICSWASLESSCLEARINREGIONALSCIENCEANDURBANECONOMICS372007457–465WWWELSEVIERCOM/LOCATE/REGECWETHANKAREFEREE,RICHARDARNOTT,WILFRIEDKOCHANDGIORDANOMIONFORHELPFULCOMMENTSANDSUGGESTIONSKRISTIANBEHRENSGRATEFULLYACKNOWLEDGESFINANCIALSUPPORTFROMTHEEUROPEANCOMMISSIONUNDERTHEMARIECURIEFELLOWSHIPMEIFCT2005024266?CORRESPONDINGAUTHORCERAS,ECOLENATIONALEDESPONTSETCHAUSSéES,FRANCEEMAILADDRESSESBEHRENSCOREUCLACBEKBEHRENS,THISSECOREUCLACBEJFTHISSE01660462/SEEFRONTMATTER?2007ELSEVIERBVALLRIGHTSRESERVEDDOI101016/JREGSCIURBECO200610001MIND,AWELLKNOWNRESULTINSETTHEORYISTHATTHEREISAONETOONECORRESPONDENCEBETWEENTHEFAMILYOFPARTITIONSINASETANDTHEFAMILYOFEQUIVALENCERELATIONSOFTHESAMESETHALMOS,1965RECALLTHATANEQUIVALENCERELATIONINASETISAREFLEXIVE,SYMMETRICANDTRANSITIVERELATIONINTUITIVELY,ONEMAYTHINKOFANEQUIVALENCERELATIONASAGENERALIZATIONOFTHECONCEPTOFEQUALITYTOTHATOFSIMILARITYIANOBJECTISALWAYSSIMILARTOITSELFREFLEXIVITYIIIFONEOBJECTISSIMILARTOANOTHER,THELATTERISSIMILARTOTHEFORMERSYMMETRYANDIIITWOOBJECTSSIMILARTOATHIRDONEARETHEMSELVESSIMILARTRANSITIVITYACCORDINGLY,USINGAPARTICULARREGIONALSYSTEMAMOUNTSTOWORKINGWITHASPECIALEQUIVALENCERELATIONDEFINEDONTHESPACEOFREFERENCETHISRESULTHASTWOIMPORTANTIMPLICATIONSIANYPLACEBELONGSTOASINGLEREGIONANDIITWOPLACESBELONGINGTOTHESAMEREGIONARECONSIDEREDASBEINGIDENTICALFROMTHESTANDPOINTOFTHEEQUIVALENCERELATION,WHEREASTWOPLACESBELONGINGTOTWODISTINCTREGIONSARENOTITISNOWEASYTOUNDERSTANDWHYTHEREISNOGENERALAGREEMENTONWHATAREGIONSHOULDBETHENUMBEROFEQUIVALENCERELATIONSTHATCANBEDEFINEDINASPACEIS“HUGE”THUS,DEPENDINGONTHEPOINTOFVIEWSELECTEDBYTHEANALYST,THEREGIONALSYSTEM,WHENCETHESHAPEANDNUMBEROFREGIONS,MAYVARYCONSEQUENTLY,AGIVENAREACANNOTBECONSIDEREDASAREGIONPERSEWHETHERORNOTITISPARTOFAREGIONALSYSTEMULTIMATELYDEPENDSONTHEEQUIVALENCERELATIONTHATISBEINGUSEDTHISDIFFICULTYSHOULDNOTCOMEASASURPRISEASDEFININGAREGIONALSYSTEMBEARSSOMERESEMBLANCEWITHTHEPROBLEMOFAGGREGATIONINECONOMICTHEORYINTHISRESPECT,ITISWELLKNOWNHOWPOORLYREPRESENTATIVETHESOCALLED“REPRESENTATIVECONSUMER”MAYBEKIRMAN,1992LIKEWISE,THEWORD“INDUSTRY”ISSTILLINSEARCHOFAWELLDEFINEDTHEORETICALMEANINGTRIFFIN,1940GROUPINGLOCATIONSWITHINTHESAMESPATIALENTITY,CALLEDAREGION,GIVESRISETOSIMILARDIFFICULTIESITIS,THEREFORE,PROBABLYHOPELESSTOGIVEACLEARANDPRECISEANSWERTOOURFIRSTQUESTION,WHICHISESSENTIALLYANEMPIRICALONEWHENWETALKABOUTAREGION,WEMUSTBEHAPPYWITHTHESAMETHEORETICALVAGUENESSTHATWEENCOUNTERWHENUSINGTHECONCEPTOFINDUSTRYNOTETHATBOTHINVOLVESOME“INTERMEDIATE”LEVELOFAGGREGATIONBETWEENTHEMACROANDTHEMICROITSHOULDBECLEARFROMTHEFOREGOINGDISCUSSIONTHATTHEMAINCHALLENGEINDEFININGAREGIONALSYSTEMLIESMOREINTHEEMPIRICALAPPLICATIONONEHASINMINDFROMAPURELYEMPIRICALPOINTOFVIEW,THECONCEPTOFREGIONONERETAINSISOFTENINTRINSICALLYLINKEDTOTHEAVAILABILITYOFDATAHENCE,THEQUESTIONOFTHESPATIALSCALEOFANALYSIS,THOUGHALREADYPROBLEMATICINTHEORY,BECOMESEVENMOREDRAMATICINAPPLIEDRESEARCHHOWEVER,SUCHADIFFICULTYDOESNOTDISPENSETHEANALYSTFROMSEEKINGMEANINGFULEMPIRICALSOLUTIONSSEE,EGMAGRINI,2004MCMILLENANDSMITH,2003ONTHEONEHAND,THEQUESTIONOFTHESIZEOFREGIONSNOLONGERMATTERSBECAUSEITISOFTENDICTATEDBYADMINISTRATIVECLASSIFICATIONSEG,THENUTSREGIONALCLASSIFICATIONOFTHEEUONTHEOTHERHAND,ONEISTEMPTEDTOTWISTTHEORYSOTHATITFITSINTOTHEAVAILABLESTATISTICALCLASSIFICATIONSONEADDITIONALPROBLEMISTHAT,DUETOTHENATUREOFTHEDATAAVAILABLE,SPACEMUSTOFTENBEREPRESENTEDBYADISCRETESETOFPOINTSYET,WHENTHEREARETOOMANYPOINTS,AGGREGATIONBECOMESNECESSARYANDGIVESRISETOANOTHERPROBLEM,KNOWNASTHEMAUPMOVABLEAREALUNITPROBLEM3SOMENEWTECHNIQUESSHOULDALLEVIATETHEMAUPPROBLEMINPARTICULAR,THEUSEOFGEOGRAPHICALINFORMATIONSYSTEMSANDTHEINCREASINGAVAILABILITYOFMICROSPATIALDATASHOULDALLOWFORLESSRELIANCEONARBITRARILYDETERMINEDREGIONALBOUNDARIES43ECONOMISTSANDGEOGRAPHERSDONOTSEEMTOBEAWARETHATMATHEMATICIANSHAVEEXTENSIVELYSTUDIEDTHEPOSSIBLEERRORSTHATMAYEMERGEFROMTHEAGGREGATIONOFDATAINTHISPERSPECTIVE,FRANCISETAL2007CONSIDERANDCOMPAREVARIOUSAGGREGATIONERRORMEASURES,IDENTIFYSOMEEFFECTIVEANDSOMEINEFFECTIVEAGGREGATIONERRORMEASURES,ANDDISCUSSSOMEOPENRESEARCHAREAS4FOREXAMPLE,DURANTONANDOVERMAN2005STARTFROMACONTINUOUSSPACEAPPROACHTODETERMINETHEDEGREEOFSPATIALCONCENTRATIONOFVARIOUSINDUSTRIALSECTORS,WHEREASMORIETAL2005PROPOSEANINDEXOFINDUSTRIALLOCATIONTHATCANBEDECOMPOSEDINTOCOMPONENTSREPRESENTINGLOCALIZATIONATVARIOUSLEVELSOFSPATIALAGGREGATION459KBEHRENS,JFTHISSE/REGIONALSCIENCEANDURBANECONOMICS372007457–465

簡介：3700英文單詞，英文單詞，2萬英文字符，中文萬英文字符，中文6400字文獻出處文獻出處BEHRENSK,THISSEJFREGIONALECONOMICSANEWECONOMICGEOGRAPHYPERSPECTIVEJREGIONALSCIENCEANDURBANECONOMICS,2007,374457465REGIONALECONOMICSANEWECONOMICGEOGRAPHYPERSPECTIVEKRISTIANBEHRENS,JACQUESFRAN?OISTHISSEABSTRACTWESHOWTHATTHECONCEPTSANDTOOLSDEVELOPEDINNEWECONOMICGEOGRAPHYMAYBEUSEDTOREVISITSEVERALPROBLEMSINREGIONALECONOMICSINPARTICULAR,WEWANTTOSTRESSTHEFOLLOWINGTWOPOINTSIWHATDOWEMEANBYAREGIONANDIIWHATKINDOFINTERACTIONSBETWEENREGIONSDOWEWANTTOSTUDYANDHOWTOMODELTHEMWECONCLUDEBYDISCUSSINGAFEWOPENPROBLEMSTHATSHOULDBEEXPLOREDINMOREDETAILFORREGIONALECONOMICSTOBECOMEARICHERBODYOFKNOWLEDGEKEYWORDSREGIONSREGIONALECONOMICSNEWECONOMICGEOGRAPHY1INTRODUCTIONTHISJOURNALHASBEENLAUNCHEDIN1972UNDERTHETITLEREGIONALANDURBANECONOMICS,WHICHISALMOSTTHENAMEOFTHEJELCLASSIFICATIONENTRYRTHEFIRSTPOINTWEWISHTOMAKEISTHAT,BYTHETIMETHISJOURNALWASLAUNCHED,URBANECONOMICSWASALREADYAWELLESTABLISHEDFIELDDRAWINGONNEWCONCEPTSANDTOOLSBYCONTRAST,THESCIENTIFICSTATUSOFREGIONALECONOMICSWASLESSCLEARINTHATREGIONALCONCEPTS,MODELSANDTECHNIQUESWERETOOOFTENAMEREEXTENSIONOFTHOSEUSEDATTHENATIONALLEVEL,WITHANADDITIONALINDEXIDENTIFYINGTHEDIFFERENTREGIONSSEE,EG,INTERREGIONALINPUT–OUTPUTMATRICESORTHEHARROD–DOMARMODELOFREGIONALGROWTH1THESAMUELSONIANEMPHASISPUTONTRADETHEORYALSOACTEDASANIMPEDIMENTTOTHEFURTHERDEVELOPMENTOFREGIONALECONOMICS,THETRADEOFGOODSBEINGVIEWEDASASUBSTITUTETOTHEMOBILITYOFFACTORSTODAY,THANKSTOTHESURGEOFNEWECONOMICGEOGRAPHYINSHORT,NEG,ITISTIMETORETHINKREGIONALECONOMICSTHISISWHATWEWISHTODOINTHISNOTEITISWORTHSTRESSINGFROMTHEOUTSETTHAT,INORDERTOTALKEVENHALFWAYSENSIBLYABOUTREGIONALECONOMICS,ITISNECESSARYTOTACKLETHEFOLLOWINGTWOQUESTIONSIWHATDOWEMEANBYAREGIONANDIIWHATKINDOFINTERACTIONSBETWEENREGIONSDOWEWANTTOSTUDYANDHOWTOMODELTHEMREGARDINGTHEFIRSTQUESTION,WEFINDITCRUCIALTODEVELOPABETTERUNDERSTANDINGOFHOWTHESPATIALSCALEOFTHEANALYSISMATTERSFORTHEECONOMICRESULTSTOOOFTEN,ECONOMISTSUSEINTERCHANGEABLYDIFFERENT,YETEQUALLYUNCLEAR,WORDSSUCHASLOCATIONS,REGIONSORPLACESWITHOUTBEINGAWARETHATTHEYOFTENCORRESPONDTODIFFERENTSPATIALUNITSINDOINGSO,THEYRUNTHERISKOFDRAWINGIMPLICATIONSTHATAREVALIDATACERTAINLEVELOFSPATIALAGGREGATIONBUTNOTATANOTHER2FURTHERMORE,USINGVAGUEDEFINITIONSOFTHESPATIALUNITOFANALYSISREDUCESTHESCIENTIFICCONTENTSOFTHETHEORYINTHEPOPPERIANSENSE,ASTHEEMPIRICALRESULTSCANALWAYSBECONTESTEDINLIGHTOFTHETHEORYONTHESOLEBASISTHATVARIABLESARENOTMEASUREDATTHEAPPROPRIATESPATIALSCALEASTOTHESECONDQUESTION,REGARDLESSOFWHATISMEANTBYAREGION,THECONCEPTISUSEFULIFANDONLYIFAREGIONISPARTOFABROADERNETWORKTHROUGHWHICHVARIOUSTYPESOFINTERACTIONSOCCURWITHOUTTAKINGTHISASPECTINTOACCOUNT,ONEMAYWONDERWHATTHEDIFFERENCEBETWEENREGIONALECONOMICSANDTHEMACROECONOMICSOFACLOSEDECONOMYWOULDBEWHENTHEREISASINGLEREGION,THEECONOMYISASPATIALANDTHEREISNOTHINGINTERESTINGTOBESAIDINTERMSOFSPATIALANALYSISHENCE,ANYMEANINGFULDISCUSSIONOFREGIONALISSUESREQUIRESATLEASTTWOREGIONSINWHICHECONOMICDECISIONSAREMADEFURTHERMORE,IFWEDONOTWANTTHEANALYSISTOBECONFINEDTOTRADETHEORY,WEMUSTALSOACCOUNTEXPLICITLYFORTHEMOBILITYOFAGENTS–FIRMSAND/ORCONSUMERS–ASEVENMOREDRAMATICINAPPLIEDRESEARCHHOWEVER,SUCHADIFFICULTYDOESNOTDISPENSETHEANALYSTFROMSEEKINGMEANINGFULEMPIRICALSOLUTIONSSEE,EGMAGRINI,2004MCMILLENANDSMITH,2003ONTHEONEHAND,THEQUESTIONOFTHESIZEOFREGIONSNOLONGERMATTERSBECAUSEITISOFTENDICTATEDBYADMINISTRATIVECLASSIFICATIONSEG,THENUTSREGIONALCLASSIFICATIONOFTHEEUONTHEOTHERHAND,ONEISTEMPTEDTOTWISTTHEORYSOTHATITFITSINTOTHEAVAILABLESTATISTICALCLASSIFICATIONSONEADDITIONALPROBLEMISTHAT,DUETOTHENATUREOFTHEDATAAVAILABLE,SPACEMUSTOFTENBEREPRESENTEDBYADISCRETESETOFPOINTSYET,WHENTHEREARETOOMANYPOINTS,AGGREGATIONBECOMESNECESSARYANDGIVESRISETOANOTHERPROBLEM,KNOWNASTHEMAUPMOVABLEAREALUNITPROBLEM3SOMENEWTECHNIQUESSHOULDALLEVIATETHEMAUPPROBLEMINPARTICULAR,THEUSEOFGEOGRAPHICALINFORMATIONSYSTEMSANDTHEINCREASINGAVAILABILITYOFMICROSPATIALDATASHOULDALLOWFORLESSRELIANCEONARBITRARILYDETERMINEDREGIONALBOUNDARIES3THERELATIONSHIPBETWEENREGIONALECONOMICSANDNEGTHEIDEAOFSPATIALINTERACTIONISCENTRALTOREGIONALECONOMICSBROADLYDEFINED,SPATIALINTERACTIONREFERSTOAWIDEARRAYOFFLOWSSUBJECTTOVARIOUSTYPESOFSPATIALFRICTIONS,SUCHASTRADEDGOODS,MIGRATIONS,CAPITALMOVEMENTS,INTERREGIONALGRANTS,REMITTANCES,ANDTHEINTERREGIONALTRANSMISSIONOFKNOWLEDGEANDBUSINESSCYCLEEFFECTSSOFAR,THEBULKOFNEGHASBEENRESTRICTEDTOTHEMOVEMENTSOFGOODSANDOFSOMEAGENTSONLYASARGUEDINTHEFOREGOINGSECTION,DEFININGCLEARLYANDDELINEATINGPRECISELYAREGIONAPPEARSTOBEADIFFICULT,NOTTOSAYIMPOSSIBLE,TASKKEEPINGTHISINMIND,WEASSUMEFROMNOWONTHATREGIONSMAYBEVIEWEDASUNITSWHEREECONOMICACTIVITYTAKESPLACEINLIGHTOFTHISVAGUEDEFINITION,ITBECOMESCRUCIALFORTHEANALYSISTOACCOUNTFORTHEFACTTHATWHERETHINGSHAPPENISENDOGENOUSLYDETERMINEDINAREGIONALSYSTEMINTHISRESPECT,TRADITIONALREGIONALECONOMICSOFTENFAILSTOGRASPSUCHANISSUEBYTAKINGTHELOCATIONOFPRODUCTIONFACTORSASGIVEN,VERYMUCHASINTRADETHEORYHOWCANORSHOULDAREGIONALSYSTEMBEFORMALLYREPRESENTEDISSTILLAMATTEROFDEBATEFIRSTLY,ONEMAYCONSIDERTHATTHEREISADISCRETESETOFREGIONSALTERNATIVELY,ONEMAYASSUMETHATTHEREISACONTINUUMOFREGIONSALTHOUGHTHESECONDAPPROACHMAYSEEMMOREAPPROPRIATEWHENWEWANTTOWORKATAVERYDISAGGREGATESPATIALLEVEL,ITSEEMSNATURALTOTHINKOFAREGIONALSYSTEMASBEINGFORMEDBYAFINITESETOFREGIONSFURTHERMORE,NEGSHOWSTHATEVENWHENLOCATIONSPACESARECONTINUOUS,ECONOMICACTIVITYUSUALLYCLUSTERSINTOAFEWPLACES5THISLEADSUSTOBELIEVETHATTHEOPERATIONALLYFEASIBLEANDTHEORETICALLYDESIRABLEREPRESENTATIONOFAREGIONALSYSTEMISINTERMSOFAGRAPHNOTETHATTHISISTHEAPPROACHTHATHASBEENCHOSENFORALONGTIMEINLOCATIONTHEORYBECKMANNANDTHISSE,1986INDEED,GRAPHSOFFERANATURALREPRESENTATIONOFFINITESYSTEMSOFAGENTS/NODESWHICHINTERACTWITHEACHOTHERTHROUGHLINKSITALSOFITSWELLTHEINTERMEDIATESPATIALSCALECONSIDEREDINREGIONALECONOMICSINASPATIALECONOMYWITHAFINITENUMBEROFREGIONS,WEKNOWFROMSTARRETTSSPATIALIMPOSSIBILITYTHEOREMTHATTHECOMPETITIVEMARKETMECHANISMBREAKSDOWNWHENTHEMOBILITYOFFIRMSAND/ORHOUSEHOLDSISCOMBINEDWITHTHETRANSPORTCOSTSOFGOODSBETWEENREGIONSHENCE,UNLESSSTRONGSPATIALHETEROGENEITIESAREASSUMEDTOBEGIVENAPRIORI,THEQUESTIONOFWHEREECONOMICACTIVITYOCCURSANDWHYCANNOTBEREADILYADDRESSEDWITHINTHECOMPETITIVEFRAMEWORKASARGUEDBYKRUGMAN1995,THISPROBABLYEXPLAINSWHYSPATIALECONOMICISSUESHAVEBEENFORSOLONGATTHEPERIPHERYOFMAINSTREAMECONOMICSNOTE,INPASSING,THATAMAJORIMPLICATIONOFTHESPATIALIMPOSSIBILITYTHEOREMISTHATSOMEFORMSOFIMPERFECTCOMPETITIONARELIKELYTOBENECESSARYTOHANDLEREGIONALISSUESITISNOSURPRISE,THEREFORE,THATTHESURGEOFNEGTOOKPLACEA

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簡介：BEHAVIORALECONOMICSANDMACROECONOMICMODELSJOHNCDRISCOLLA,STEINARHOLDENB,?AFEDERALRESERVEBOARD,20THANDCONSTITUTIONAVENW,WASHINGTON,DC20551,USABDEPARTMENTOFECONOMICS,UNIVERSITYOFOSLO,BOX1095,BLINDERN,0317OSLO,NORWAYARTICLEINFOARTICLEHISTORYRECEIVED17SEPTEMBER2012ACCEPTED23MAY2014AVAILABLEONLINE18JUNE2014JELCLASSIFICATIONE2E3D8KEYWORDSBEHAVIORALMACROECONOMICSNEWKEYNESIANMODELABSTRACTOVERTHEPAST20YEARS,MACROECONOMISTSHAVEINCORPORATEDMOREANDMORERESULTSFROMBEHAVIORALECONOMICSINTOTHEIRMODELSWEARGUETHATDOINGSOHASHELPEDFIXEDDEFICIENCIESWITHSTANDARDAPPROACHESTOMODELINGTHEECONOMYFOREXAMPLE,THECOUNTERFACTUALABSENCEOFINERTIAINTHESTANDARDNEWKEYNESIANMODELOFECONOMICFLUCTUATIONSWESURVEYEFFORTSTOUSEBEHAVIORALECONOMICSTOIMPROVESOMEOFTHEUNDERPINNINGSOFTHENEWKEYNESIANMODELSPECIFICALLY,CONSUMPTION,THEFORMATIONOFEXPECTATIONSANDDETERMINATIONOFWAGESANDEMPLOYMENTTHATUNDERLIEAGGREGATESUPPLY,ANDTHEPOSSIBILITYOFMULTIPLEEQUILIBRIAANDASSETPRICEBUBBLESWEALSODISCUSSMOREBROADLYTHEADVANTAGESANDDISADVANTAGESOFUSINGBEHAVIORALECONOMICSFEATURESINMACROECONOMICMODELS?2014ELSEVIERINCALLRIGHTSRESERVED1INTRODUCTIONOVERTHEPAST20YEARS,RESEARCHERSHAVEINCORPORATEDANINCREASINGNUMBEROFRESULTSFROMBEHAVIORALECONOMICSINTOMACROECONOMICMODELSTHEREARETWOMAINREASONSFORTHISCHANGEFIRST,ITHASBECOMECLEARTOMACROECONOMISTSTHATMODELSBASEDONASSUMPTIONSOFOPTIMIZINGBEHAVIORINMANYCASESHAVEDIFFICULTYACCOUNTINGFORKEYREALWORLDOBSERVATIONSHENCERESEARCHERSHAVEUSEDBEHAVIORALECONOMICSASSUMPTIONSWITHTHEAIMOFMAKINGTHEIRMODELPREDICTIONSBETTERFITTHEDATAEARLYATTEMPTSTODOTHISWERECRITICIZEDASBEINGADHOCTHEFORCEOFTHISCRITICISMHASBEENREDUCEDBYTHESECONDREASONFORINCORPORATINGBEHAVIORALECONOMICSRESULTSINTOMACROECONOMICSCOGNITIVEPSYCHOLOGISTSANDEXPERIMENTALECONOMISTSHAVEDOCUMENTEDANUMBEROFSYSTEMATICDEVIATIONSBETWEENTHEDECISIONSOFHUMANBEINGSANDTHOSEOFTHE‘‘ECONOMICMAN’’THEECONOMICSPROFESSIONHASWIDELY,THOUGHBYNOMEANSUNIVERSALLY,ACKNOWLEDGEDTHEEMPIRICALSUPPORTFORPUZZLESTHATCANBEEXPLAINEDBYBEHAVIORALFEATURESMOREOVER,BEHAVIORALFEATURESHAVEBEENINTRODUCEDINMANYPARTSOFMACROECONOMICSWHEREHAVETHESEDEVELOPMENTLEDUSWHICHASSUMPTIONSSHOULDONENOWMAKEWHENANALYZINGMACROECONOMICQUESTIONSTHEAIMOFTHISPAPERISTOPROVIDEASELECTIVESURVEYOFTHEIMPLICATIONSOFINSIGHTSFROMBEHAVIORALECONOMICSFORMACROECONOMICMODELSWEARGUETHATTHEINSIGHTSFROMBEHAVIORALECONOMICSHAVELEDTOIMPORTANTPROGRESSINOURUNDERSTANDINGOFMACROECONOMICPHENOMENABYALLOWINGUSTOEXPLAINMOREASPECTSOFREALWORLDBEHAVIORTHANWECOULDWITHTHEMORERESTRICTIVETHEORETICALFRAMEWORKTHATMOSTECONOMISTSHAVEBEENUSINGSOMEBEHAVIORALASSUMPTIONSTHATHAVEALREADYBEENIMPLEMENTEDINMACROECONOMICMODELS,SUCHASFAIRNESSCONSIDERATIONS,SEEMESPECIALLYPROMISINGTOUSINOTHERCASES,WESUSHTTP//DXDOIORG/101016/JJMACRO20140500401640704/?2014ELSEVIERINCALLRIGHTSRESERVED?CORRESPONDINGAUTHORTEL4722855156FAX4722855035EMAILADDRESSESJOHNCDRISCOLLFRBGOVJCDRISCOLL,STEINARHOLDENECONUIONOSHOLDENJOURNALOFMACROECONOMICS412014133–147CONTENTSLISTSAVAILABLEATSCIENCEDIRECTJOURNALOFMACROECONOMICSJOURNALHOMEPAGEWWWELSEVIERCOM/LOCATE/JMACROMONETARYPOLICY,ANDTHEASCURVE,RESPECTIVELY3THEMODELHASASTEADYSTATEOUTPUTGAPANDINFLATIONRATEOFZERO,ANDREALINTERESTRATEEQUALTOTHEWICKSELLIANLEVELINTHESHORTRUN,THEMODELCANBEUSEDTOTRACETHEEFFECTSOFSHOCKSONTHEOUTPUTGAP,INFLATION,ANDREALANDNOMINALINTERESTRATESWHILETHEMODELHASBEENSUCCESSFULINEXPLAININGBROADFEATURESOFTHERESPONSEOFREALVARIABLESTOMONETARYPOLICY,ITALSOHASANUMBEROFDEFICIENCIESONEKEYPROBLEMISTHATTHEMODELDISPLAYSALACKOFINERTIASHOCKSHAVEIMMEDIATEEFFECTS,WHICHDISSIPATEQUICKLYTOSEETHIS,NOTETHATASHOCKINPERIODTWILLONLYHAVEEFFECTSINTHATPERIODINSUBSEQUENTPERIODS,THELEVELSOFTHEENDOGENOUSVARIABLESONLYDEPENDONEACHOTHER,CURRENTSHOCKS,ANDEXPECTEDFUTURESHOCKSTHISCOMPLETELACKOFPERSISTENCEARISESFROMTHEABSENCEOFLAGGEDINFLATIONOROUTPUTGAPTERMSINTHEISORASEQUATIONSEITHERDIRECTLY,ORINDIRECTLYTHROUGHEXPECTATIONSWHICHMAYDEPENDONTHEMTHISPREDICTIONISSTRONGLYCONTRARYTOEMPIRICALEVIDENCETHAT,FOREXAMPLE,THEREALEFFECTSOFMONETARYPOLICYSHOCKSAREBOTHDELAYEDANDLONGLASTINGASECONDPROBLEM,NOTEDBYBALL1994ANDMANKIW2001,ISTHATTHEAGGREGATESUPPLYSCHEDULEIMPLIESTHATINFLATIONISEXPECTEDTOFALLINABOOM–ACCORDINGTO3,WHENTHEOUTPUTGAPYT0,PTETPTT1THISFEATUREISINCONSISTENTWITHEVIDENCESUPPORTINGTHENAIRU,THATINFLATIONINCREASESWHENOUTPUTISHIGHRELATIVETOTHENATURALRATEBALL1994LOOKSATTHISISSUEFROMTHEPERSPECTIVEOFCREDIBILITYOFTHECENTRALBANKHESHOWSTHATTHENEWKEYNESIANMODELSIMPLIESTHATCREDIBLEDISINFLATIONSSHOULDBEACCOMPANIEDBYEXPANSIONS,BUTPROVIDESEVIDENCETHATACTUALDISINFLATIONSHAVEBEENASSOCIATEDWITHRECESSIONSTHESEPROBLEMSHAVELEDTHOSEWHOWISHTOUSESUCHMODELSWITHANUNAPPEALINGCHOICEUSETHISMODELWITHTHEORETICALSUPPORTBUTEMPIRICALDEFICIENCIES,ORALTERTHEMODELSOTHATITBETTERFITSTHEDATASOMERESEARCHERSHAVETAKENTHELATTERCOURSEEGRUDEBUSCH2002APREFERABLESOLUTIONWOULDBETOFINDMODELSWITHMICROECONOMICSUPPORTWHICHFOLLOWTHEMACROECONOMICDATAFUHRERANDMOORE1995SUGGESTEDAMODELWHEREAGENTSCAREABOUTRELATIVEREALWAGESFORACRITIQUE,SEEHOLDENANDDRISCOLL,2003AMORECOMMONFORMULATIONISAHYBRIDMODEL,WHERESOMEAGENTSAREFORWARDLOOKINGANDOTHERAGENTSAREBACKWARDLOOKINGEGGALIANDGERTLER,1999WHILETHISMODELCLEARLYHASATTRACTIVEELEMENTS,ITHASALSOBEENHEAVILYCRITICIZEDASBEINGINCONSISTENTWITHEVIDENCESPECIFICALLY,THEFORWARDLOOKINGPARTISSAIDTOBEEMPIRICALLYINVALIDSEERUDDANDWHELAN,2007GALIETAL,2005B?RDSENANDNYMOEN,2009RESEARCHERSHAVEINCREASINGLYTURNEDTOBEHAVIORALECONOMICSTOFINDMICROECONOMICFOUNDATIONSTHATGENERATEBETTERMACROECONOMICEMPIRICALPREDICTIONSTHATHASLARGELYINVOLVEDEXPLORINGDIFFERENTMODELSOFCONSUMPTIONGIVENTHEFORMULATIONOFTHENEWKEYNESIANISCURVE,DIFFERENTWAYSOFTHINKINGOFEXPECTATIONSFORMATION,ORDIFFERENTMODELSOFNOMINALWAGEDETERMINATION4WEEXPLOREALLTHREETOPICSBELOWINTHENEXTTWOSECTIONS,ANDFURTHERUSETHEDISCUSSIONOFCONSUMPTIONTOEXAMINELONGERRUNCONSUMPTIONANDSAVINGSCHOICES3CONSUMPTION31THECONSUMPTIONEULEREQUATIONANDSHORTRUNBEHAVIORONEOFTHEAREASWHEREBEHAVIORALECONOMICSHASHADTHEGREATESTIMPACTISINTHESTUDYOFCONSUMPTIONBYHOUSEHOLDSTHESTANDARDCONSUMPTIONEULEREQUATIONAPPROACHPIONEEREDBYHALL1978HASBEENUNABLETOEXPLAINKEYASPECTSOFACTUALBEHAVIORACCORDINGTOTHEPERMANENTINCOMEHYPOTHESIS,CONSUMPTIONSHOULDBEAPURELYFORWARDLOOKINGVARIABLE,DEPENDINGONTHENETWEALTHOFTHECONSUMER,INCLUDINGEXPECTEDFUTURELABORINCOMETHUS,CONSUMPTIONSHOULDRESPONDINSTANTANEOUSLYTONEWINFORMATIONABOUTEXPECTEDFUTUREINCOME,BUTBEMUCHLESSRESPONSIVETOCHANGESINCURRENTDISPOSABLEINCOME,INSOFARASTHELATTERDOESNOTREVEALINFORMATIONABOUTFUTUREINCOMEHOWEVER,EMPIRICALEVIDENCESHOWSTHATCONSUMPTIONRESPONDMUCHLESSTONEWS,ANDTHATASRESULT,CONSUMPTIONEXHIBITS‘‘EXCESSSMOOTHNESS’’CAMPBELLANDDEATON,1989CONSUMPTIONALSOEXHIBITS‘‘EXCESSSENSITIVITY’’TOCURRENTINCOMEBOTHOFTHESERESULTSARELARGELYCONFIRMEDBYEXPERIMENTALEVIDENCE,ASSURVEYEDBYDUFFY2012ALTHOUGHITSHOULDALSOBENOTEDTHATSOMEEXPERIMENTERSFINDTHATOTHERPREDICTIONSOFTHISTHEORY,SUCHASTHERESPONSEOFCONSUMPTIONTOCHANGESINDISCOUNTORINTERESTRATES,HAVESUPPORTONETRADITIONALBEHAVIORALEXPLANATIONFOREXCESSSMOOTHNESSISHABITFORMATIONAMONGCONSUMERS,ASINPOLLAK1970,ABEL1990,ANDFUHRER2000HABITFORMATIONMAYARISEFROMTHEENDOWMENTEFFECTARESULTFROMCOGNITIVEPSYCHOLOGYEXPERIMENTSINWHICHINDIVIDUALS’POSSESSIONOFGOODSISSHOWNTOINCREASETHEIRVALUATIONOFTHEM–,ASSHOWNINLOEWENSTEINANDADLER1995ITISWIDELYUSEDINMACROECONOMICSITSUSAGEANTEDATINGTHEGROWTHINBEHAVIORALECONOMICSINTHEPASTFEWDECADES–ANDRESEARCHHASALSOSHOWNTHATITHASIMPORTANTIMPLICATIONSALSOFOROTHERECONOMICISSUES,LIKETHEEQUITYPREMIUMPUZZLECONSTANTINIDES,1990THESEMODELSIMPLYTHATTHECONSUMPTIONEULEREQUATIONUNDERLYINGTHENEWKEYNESIANISCURVERELATETHERATIOOFCONSUMPTIONTOTHEHABITORREFERENCELEVELACROSSADJACENTPERIODS,IMPLYINGTHATEQ1WILLHAVELAGGEDOUTPUTTERMSUSINGTHISASTHEBASISFORANALTERNATIVENEWKEYNESIANISCURVEHASTHEEFFECTOFINCREASINGTHEPERSISTENCEOFTHEEFFECTOFSHOCKSONOUTPUT,BYCHANGINGTHEREFERENCELEVELOFCONSUMPTIONTHISISTHEAPPROACHTAKENBYFUHRER2000,WHOFINDSTHATINCLUDINGHABITFORMATION,INTHESENSETHATCONSUMERS’UTILITYINPART3THISISAVERSIONOFTHEMODELLINEARIZEDAROUNDASTEADYSTATEWITHZEROINFLATIONTHEMODELMAYBEEXTENDEDTOTHECASEOFHAVINGAPOSITIVERATEOFINFLATION4THISBEGSTHEQUESTIONOFWHYTHEREARESOFEWBEHAVIORALMACROECONOMICMODELSOFINVESTMENTTHEUSEOFTHECONSUMPTIONEULEREQUATIONASMOTIVATIONFORTHENEWKEYNESIANISCURVEISINPARTDUETOANALYTICALCONVENIENCEITSERVESASAWAYOFINTRODUCINGINTERESTSENSITIVITYINTOTHEISCURVEWITHOUTHAVINGTOINVOKEMORECOMPLICATEDINVESTMENTMODELSJCDRISCOLL,SHOLDEN/JOURNALOFMACROECONOMICS412014133–147135

簡介：中文中文18500字出處出處DRISCOLLJC,HOLDENSBEHAVIORALECONOMICSANDMACROECONOMICMODELSJJOURNALOFMACROECONOMICS,2014,41133147行為經(jīng)濟學(xué)和宏觀經(jīng)濟模型行為經(jīng)濟學(xué)和宏觀經(jīng)濟模型過去20年，宏觀經(jīng)濟學(xué)家越來越多地將行為經(jīng)濟學(xué)的結(jié)論加入他們的模型中，這樣做有助于彌補利用標準方法模擬經(jīng)濟而造成的缺陷，例如模擬經(jīng)濟動蕩的新凱恩斯模型缺少慣性。我們努力利用行為經(jīng)濟學(xué)來改善一些新凱恩斯模型的基礎(chǔ)內(nèi)容，特別是消費、總供給的基礎(chǔ)期望的形成和工資與就業(yè)的決定因素、多重均衡和資產(chǎn)價格泡沫的可能性。我們也廣泛討論了將行為經(jīng)濟學(xué)的特征引入宏觀經(jīng)濟模型所造成的利害。1介紹介紹過去20年，宏觀經(jīng)濟學(xué)家越來越多地將行為經(jīng)濟學(xué)的特征引入宏觀經(jīng)濟的模型中。原因有兩點。首先，宏觀經(jīng)濟學(xué)者意識到，基于最優(yōu)行為假定的模型在許多方面都難以解釋關(guān)鍵的實際現(xiàn)狀。因而，研究者利用行為經(jīng)濟學(xué)的假定來使他們的模型預(yù)測更加貼近于實際數(shù)據(jù)。剛開始這樣的嘗試被批評為很另類，而這些批評的壓力因為第二個原因的出現(xiàn)而減少了。第二個原因是認知心理學(xué)家和實驗經(jīng)濟學(xué)家證實了現(xiàn)實中人們的決定與那些“經(jīng)“經(jīng)濟人濟人”存在許多偏差。很多經(jīng)濟難題能夠被行為特征解釋，這一事實的實證支持已經(jīng)得到經(jīng)濟學(xué)界的廣泛認可，當然并沒得到全部認可。而且，行為特征已經(jīng)被引入到宏觀經(jīng)濟學(xué)的許多方面。這些發(fā)展將會把我們帶向何方呢當一個人分析宏觀經(jīng)濟問題時應(yīng)該采取何種假設(shè)呢本篇文章的目的就是提供一個選擇性的探究，探究宏觀經(jīng)濟模型方面來自行為經(jīng)濟學(xué)的觀點啟示。我們強調(diào)，來自行為經(jīng)濟學(xué)的啟示已經(jīng)在理解宏觀經(jīng)濟現(xiàn)象方面取得了重大進步。因為相比于許多經(jīng)濟學(xué)家曾經(jīng)使用的非?？量痰睦碚摽蚣?，行為經(jīng)濟學(xué)的啟示能讓我們解釋現(xiàn)實世界行為的更多方面。已經(jīng)應(yīng)用于宏觀經(jīng)濟模型的一些行為假設(shè)看起來很有應(yīng)用前景，如公平考量。另一方面，我們猜想，行為經(jīng)濟模型也被需用于解釋宏觀經(jīng)濟難題，比如經(jīng)濟波動的慣性表現(xiàn)。但是，我們并不能確定哪些行為假設(shè)是最好的。仍有一些其他的結(jié)果是由認知心理造成的，但認知心理的宏觀經(jīng)濟啟示還沒有被挖掘。將行為假設(shè)融入宏觀經(jīng)濟模型并非沒有問題。即使從認知心理學(xué)和實驗經(jīng)濟學(xué)中得到了大量有關(guān)確定行為特征的微觀經(jīng)濟證據(jù)，我們?nèi)匀缓茈y知曉哪些特征是最貼近于宏觀經(jīng)濟模型的。比如，雖然大量證據(jù)表明宏觀經(jīng)濟消費行為存在慣性，但我們并不清楚這個慣性應(yīng)該被看作習(xí)慣養(yǎng)成的結(jié)果，還是應(yīng)該被看作消費的經(jīng)驗法則，還是應(yīng)該被看作其它什么。另一個公開的問題是宏觀經(jīng)濟模型是應(yīng)該引入行為特征，還是應(yīng)該引入來自標準經(jīng)濟模型的其它偏差，比如經(jīng)濟摩擦力，不完全信息或者代理問題。因此，需要做更多的研究來指導(dǎo)模型設(shè)定的選擇?；诤暧^經(jīng)濟學(xué)中行為經(jīng)濟學(xué)的廣泛影響，我們有必要收窄談?wù)摰姆秶?。我們聚焦于?jīng)濟波動，失業(yè)和儲蓄這些核心的宏觀領(lǐng)域，行為經(jīng)濟學(xué)的結(jié)論已經(jīng)深入地應(yīng)用于這些領(lǐng)域。作為一個組織原理，我們使用新凱恩斯模型的變型。雖然新凱恩斯模型被廣泛應(yīng)用于分析經(jīng)濟波動和評估不同財政政策的實際效力，它仍然有顯著的經(jīng)驗缺陷。彌補這些缺陷的努力主要集中于使用不同的方法來形成模型假設(shè)、期望、名義工資和價格制定。我們將會討論這些方面，通過對消費的探討來研究長期消費和儲蓄的問題，通過對工資和價格制定的探討來研究長期勞動市場問題。我們將會忽略關(guān)于財政、增長率和幸福的問題，因為多重均衡、信息的影響和資產(chǎn)市場泡沫這三方面與經(jīng)濟波動相關(guān)，所以我們只會對這三個方面進行一個簡短的談?wù)?。在每一個主題中，我們都將討論基于行為假定的關(guān)鍵創(chuàng)新，也包括非行為假定的選擇。遺憾的是，由于空間有限，論文內(nèi)容也必須在被覆蓋的專題內(nèi)進NAIRU的證據(jù)相矛盾。該證據(jù)是當產(chǎn)出相對高于自然率水平時，通貨膨脹就會增加。貝爾從中央銀行的可信度視角來看待這個問題。他表示新凱恩斯模型意味著可信的通貨緊縮應(yīng)該伴隨著膨脹，但是現(xiàn)實證據(jù)表明實際通貨緊縮與衰退相聯(lián)系。這些問題已經(jīng)使得希望使用這個模型的人面臨一個糾結(jié)的選擇或者在理論的支持下使用這個模型但是面臨實證的缺陷，或者改變模型使其更貼近于數(shù)據(jù)。一些研究者已經(jīng)采取了后一種做法，比如魯?shù)喜际?。一個較好的解決辦法是找到一個微觀經(jīng)濟支持的符合宏觀經(jīng)濟數(shù)據(jù)的模型。菲雷爾和摩爾建議了一個模型，在該模型中，經(jīng)濟人關(guān)心相關(guān)的實際工資。一個更加普遍的構(gòu)想是混合模型，該模型中一部分經(jīng)濟人是有遠見的，而另一部分經(jīng)濟人是短視的。雖然這個模型很明顯具有吸引人的要素，但它仍然受到嚴厲的批判。它被認為與證據(jù)相矛盾，尤其是有遠見的經(jīng)紀人那部分被稱為實證無效。越來越多的研究者轉(zhuǎn)向行為經(jīng)濟學(xué)來尋找微觀經(jīng)濟基礎(chǔ)，進而創(chuàng)造更好的宏觀經(jīng)驗預(yù)測。其中大部分是探索不同的消費模型，探索期望產(chǎn)生的不同思考方式或者探索決定名義工資的不同模型。我們在接下來的兩部分探討這三個主題，并且進一步利用消費的討論來檢驗長期消費和儲蓄的選擇。3消費消費31消費歐拉方程消費歐拉方程和短期行為和短期行為行為經(jīng)濟學(xué)有著最大影響的領(lǐng)域之一就是家庭消費的研究?；魻査珜?dǎo)的標準消費歐拉方程的方法已經(jīng)不能夠解釋現(xiàn)實行為的關(guān)鍵領(lǐng)域。根據(jù)長期收入假說，消費應(yīng)該是一個純粹前瞻性的變量，該變量取決于消費者預(yù)期的包含未來勞動收入的凈財富。因此,消費應(yīng)該對未來預(yù)期收入的新信息立刻回應(yīng),但是會更少響應(yīng)當前可支配收入的變化,只要后者沒有透露關(guān)于未來收入的信息。然而,經(jīng)驗證據(jù)表明,消費更少的回應(yīng)新信息,結(jié)果是,消費者會表現(xiàn)出“過度平滑”坎貝爾和迪頓,1989。消費者也會對當前收入“過于敏感”。這些結(jié)果都已被達菲通過實驗證實。然而，還應(yīng)該指出的是，一些實驗還發(fā)現(xiàn)了其它關(guān)于這一理論的預(yù)測。比如，消費會對折扣或者利率的改變產(chǎn)生反應(yīng)，這已經(jīng)得到實驗支持。對過度平滑的一個傳統(tǒng)的行為解釋是消費者習(xí)慣的養(yǎng)成。如波拉克1970，亞伯1990和菲雷爾2000。習(xí)慣的養(yǎng)成起源于稟賦效應(yīng)，稟賦效應(yīng)是一個認知心理學(xué)實驗的結(jié)果，該實驗中，個人所擁有的財富物品對其擁有者的價值會有所增長，如勒文施泰因和艾德勒1995表明的那樣。稟賦效應(yīng)廣泛用于宏觀經(jīng)濟學(xué)它的使用加快了行為經(jīng)濟學(xué)在過去的幾十年里的進步,研究也表明,它對其他經(jīng)濟問題也有重要意義,如股權(quán)溢價之謎康斯坦丁尼德斯,1990。這些模型表明，基于新凱恩斯IS曲線的消費歐拉方程將消費比率和習(xí)慣與臨近時期的參考水平聯(lián)系了起來，等式1將會含有滯后的產(chǎn)出期。以此為基礎(chǔ)的另一種新凱恩斯曲線，通過改變消費的參考水平，能夠加強產(chǎn)出波動影響的持續(xù)性。采用這個方法提高了財政政策標準模型的經(jīng)驗關(guān)聯(lián)性。菲雷爾發(fā)現(xiàn)包括習(xí)慣形成在內(nèi)，在某種意義上,消費者的效用在一定程度上取決于相對于過去消費量的當前消費,斯麥茨和沃特斯也在他們的模型中使用了同樣的方法。雖然習(xí)慣的形成在現(xiàn)代宏觀經(jīng)濟研究的許多方面扮演了重要的角色，但經(jīng)驗上的證據(jù)還是混雜的。戴南2000發(fā)現(xiàn)在美國家庭中沒有證據(jù)支持習(xí)慣形成,而愛麗絲和塔帕2010發(fā)現(xiàn)了一些證據(jù)支持荷蘭家庭存在習(xí)慣形成,但力度相當小。福薩洛和特科沃斯基2011在核對美國家庭賬目的基礎(chǔ)上分析了消費行為，結(jié)果也沒得出習(xí)慣形成的證據(jù)。然而，作者們解釋到，他們的發(fā)現(xiàn)若作為證據(jù)來支持由坎貝爾和曼昆提出的“經(jīng)驗法則”消費類型是具有流動性約束的。鑒于習(xí)慣形成的證據(jù)混雜,其在宏觀經(jīng)濟模型的使用可能更多的被視為一種分析慣性產(chǎn)生的便利方式，而不是作為一個消費的微觀經(jīng)濟基礎(chǔ)的真正反映。并且，還有很多替代習(xí)慣形成的分析方式。帕格爾表明，基于損失厭惡的期望模型能夠解釋消費對當前收入的過量敏感性。加利等人2007把經(jīng)驗法則消費者融入一個改進的新凱恩斯模型中,結(jié)果表明,這

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