外文翻譯--貿(mào)易及經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)在日本和韓國(guó)的實(shí)證分析

1、<p><b>　　中文3000字</b></p><p>　　本科畢業(yè)論文外文翻譯</p><p>　　外文題目： Terms of trade and economic growth in Japan and Korea:an empirical analysis &

2、lt;/p><p>　　出 處： Empir Econ (2010) 38:139–158 </p><p>　　作 者： Hock Tsen Wong </p><p>

3、<b>　　原 文：</b></p><p>　　Terms of trade and economic growth in Japan and Korea:an empirical analysis</p><p>　　1 .Introduction</p><p>　　Terms of trade and terms of trade

4、volatility have a critical impact on economic growth, particularly during world episodes of global integration or disintegration when export prices converge or diverge worldwide, inducing large terms of trade changes and

5、economy-wide responses . However, their in?uence is ambiguous. An increase in terms of trade could either lead to an increase or a decrease in economic growth. Generally, an increase in terms of trade will lead to an inc

6、rease in investment and th</p><p>　　Eicher et al.develop an inter-temporal model to examine the impact of a decrease in terms of trade on current account and output, with the focus on a developing country. T

7、he model shows that a decrease in terms of trade will have a negative effect on income and wealth. In the long run, a decrease in terms of trade will lead to a proportional decrease in the debt level of an economy whilst

8、 output, capital, and borrowing will not change. Thus a change in terms of trade will only affect economic gr</p><p>　　Empirical studies into the impact of terms of trade and terms of trade volatility on eco

9、nomic growth are dominated by cross-country research. Nonetheless, it is interesting to examine the impact of terms of trade and terms of trade volatility on a particular economy. This study examines the impact of terms

10、of trade on real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita in Japan and Korea using time series data. Japan is a relatively large closed economy whilst Korea is a relatively small open economy. </p><p>　　The e

11、mpirical estimation is based on an augmented production function . The Dickey and Fuller and Phillips and Perron unit root test statistics are used to examine the stationarity of the data. The ohansen cointegration metho

12、d is used to examine the long-run relationship between terms of trade and real GDP per capita. The cointegration method is able to test the existence of more than one cointegrating vector in a system.The generalised fore

13、cast error variance decomposition and generalised impul</p><p>　　This article is organised as follows. Section 2 discusses the literature review of terms of trade and economic growth. Section 3 explains the

14、methodology and data in this study. Section4 presents empirical results and discussions. Section 5 provides some concluding remarks. </p><p>　　2. Literature review of terms of trade and economic growth</p

15、><p>　　There are many studies on the relationship between terms of trade and economic growth. Mendoza examines the impact of terms of trade on economic growth in 40 industrial and developing countries using cr

16、oss-sectional data for the period 1971–1991. The results show a positive impact of terms of trade on economic growth. Moreover, terms of trade shocks are reported to account for nearly half the changes in actual GDP. Fur

17、thermore, economic growth is found to be slower in countries with higher term</p><p>　　On the other hand, Blattman et al. analyse more than half a century of pre-World War II data, 1870–1938, for 35 countrie

18、s. They ?nd that terms of trade have a significant impact on economic growth. Moreover, the impact of terms of trade is greater on the periphery than in the core. A decline in terms of trade experienced by the periphery

19、represented a significant drag on economic growth during those seven decades. Furthermore, there is asymmetry between the core and the periphery. Terms of trade</p><p>　　Turnovsky and Chattopadhyay examine t

20、he impact of various sources of volatility on economic growth in a sample of 61 less developed countries for the period 1975–1992. The data analysed are annually. They also separate the sample into two sub-samples, namel

21、y 31 high volatility countries and 30 low volatility countries. An increase in terms of trade is found to have a weak impact on economicgrowth, and there is no significant evidence that governmentexpenditure or monetary

22、growth has any impact. </p><p>　　Urban (2007, p. 471) examines theoretically and empirically the medium and long-run relationship between terms of trade and income in industrialised countries. The study offe

23、rs two theoretical channels, which relate the terms of trade to income growth in a stochastic and dynamic general equilibrium model with ?exible terms of trade.The home market effect predicts that countries with a faster

24、 economic growth will have real appreciation of their terms of trade. The productivity shock effect predic</p><p>　　3 .Methodology and data</p><p>　　In this study, the impact of terms of trade o

25、n economic growth is examined based on an augmented production function.8 More specifically, this study examines three vectors. The ?rst vector includes real GDP per capita, labour,capital, terms of trade, oil price, and

26、 ?nancial development. The second vector includes the same variables as in the ?rst vector, except that terms of trade is replaced by terms of trade volatility, which is measured by the moving standard </p><p&

27、gt;　　deviation with order four, that is, MSD(4). The third vector includes the same variables as in the second vector, except that terms of trade volatility is measured by the Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Hete

28、roscedasticity model, that is, GARCH(1,1). </p><p>　　It has been documented that changes in oil price have been closely related to macroeconomic performance. Backus and Crucini use a dynamic general equilibr

29、ium model and ?nd that oil price accounts for much of the variation in terms of trade over the last 25 years and its quantitative role varies significantly over time. Moreover, they report that during the period 1972–198

30、7, terms of trade of industrialised countries were driven mainly by changes in oil price. Furthermore, the increased volatilit</p><p>　　A sound ?nancial system is important for economic growth. Financial sys

31、tems: (1) facilitate the trading, hedging, diversifying, and pooling of risk; (2) allocate resources; (3) monitor managers and exert corporation control; (4) mobilise saving; and (5) facil- itate the exchange of goods an

32、d services (Levine 1997). The increased availability of ?nancial instruments and institutions reduces transaction and information costs in an economy. Nonetheless, empirical ?ndings on the relationship between</p>

33、<p>　　The DF unit root test statistic is used to examine the stationarity of the data. The cointegration method is used to examine the long-run relationship among variables ina vector. The cointegration method prop

34、oses two likelihood ratio tests to test the number of cointegrating vectors in the system</p><p>　　If there are two cointegrating vectors in a vector, the ?rst cointegrating vector shall be identi?ed by norm

35、alising real GDP per capita and the second cointegrating vector shall be identi?ed by normalising terms of trade. The ?rst cointegrating vector is normalised based on the argument that economic growth of an economy can b

36、e estimated using an augmented production function and the second cointegrating vector is normalised based on the argument that terms of trade is strongly in?uenced by oil </p><p><b>　　譯 文：</b>

37、</p><p>　　貿(mào)易及經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)在日本和韓國(guó)的實(shí)證分析</p><p><b>　　1．簡(jiǎn)介</b></p><p>　　貿(mào)易條款及貿(mào)易波動(dòng)條款對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)具有重要影響，特別是在全世界的出口價(jià)格收斂或發(fā)散的全球一體化或解體時(shí)期，包括誘導(dǎo)貿(mào)易的變化和整個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)的反應(yīng)。然而，它們的影響是模糊地。在貿(mào)易方面的增加可能導(dǎo)致增加或減少經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。一般而言，

38、貿(mào)易方面的增加將導(dǎo)致投資的增加，因此經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)也將增加。Mendoza , Bleaney ，Greenaway 和Blattman等其他人的報(bào)告指出貿(mào)易條件對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)產(chǎn)生積極的影響。</p><p>　　Eicher等人開(kāi)發(fā)一個(gè)跨時(shí)空模型來(lái)探討貿(mào)易條件的下降對(duì)活期存款賬戶和輸出地影響，重點(diǎn)是發(fā)展中國(guó)家。該模型表明，貿(mào)易條件的下降將對(duì)收入和財(cái)富有負(fù)面影響。從長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)來(lái)看，貿(mào)易條件的下降將導(dǎo)致資本負(fù)債水平的比例減少，資本

39、產(chǎn)出和不變的借貸。因此，貿(mào)易條件的變化僅僅影響短期的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)而不是長(zhǎng)期的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。波動(dòng)性高的貿(mào)易條件將導(dǎo)致資源配置的輸入和輸出，這是因?yàn)橐?guī)避風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。但最重要的是因?yàn)閷?duì)沖市場(chǎng)的不完整性。</p><p>　　貿(mào)易條件和貿(mào)易波動(dòng)方面對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響的實(shí)證研究在跨國(guó)研究中占主導(dǎo)地位。然而，有意思的是檢驗(yàn)貿(mào)易條件和貿(mào)易波動(dòng)條件對(duì)特定的經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響。本研究采用時(shí)間序列數(shù)據(jù)探討了在日本和韓國(guó)的實(shí)際人均GDP對(duì)貿(mào)易條件的影響。日本

40、是一個(gè)大的封閉經(jīng)濟(jì)體，而韓國(guó)式一個(gè)相對(duì)較小的開(kāi)放型經(jīng)濟(jì)體。此外，日本在過(guò)去十年內(nèi)實(shí)現(xiàn)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率較低，而韓國(guó)已取得了相對(duì)較高的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)速度。因此，本文獻(xiàn)提供了一些關(guān)于貿(mào)易條件對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的增加或降低是否具有重要意義的證據(jù)。不同的經(jīng)濟(jì)體系認(rèn)為貿(mào)易條件對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響是不同的。此外，本研究探討了貿(mào)易波動(dòng)的條件對(duì)實(shí)際人均GDP的影響。另外，探討石油價(jià)格和金融發(fā)展對(duì)實(shí)際人均GDP的影響。日本和韓國(guó)都是石油進(jìn)口國(guó)。因此，本研究提供了有關(guān)于石油價(jià)格對(duì)

41、相對(duì)大的封閉經(jīng)濟(jì)和相對(duì)小的開(kāi)放經(jīng)濟(jì)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響。</p><p>　　實(shí)證估計(jì)是基于擴(kuò)展的一條生產(chǎn)函數(shù)。Dickey ，F(xiàn)uller ，Phillips 和 Perron用單位根統(tǒng)計(jì)量來(lái)檢驗(yàn)數(shù)據(jù)的平穩(wěn)性。Johansen的協(xié)整方法被用來(lái)研究貿(mào)易條件和實(shí)際GDP之間的長(zhǎng)期關(guān)系。協(xié)整方法能夠測(cè)試存在在日本和韓國(guó)多個(gè)系統(tǒng)的貿(mào)易條件和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。廣義預(yù)測(cè)誤差分解和廣義沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)用來(lái)檢查系統(tǒng)中的變量關(guān)系。廣義預(yù)測(cè)誤差分解

42、和廣義沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)解決了預(yù)測(cè)誤差方差分解和脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)的問(wèn)題。但問(wèn)題在于后者的方法是對(duì)向量自歸系統(tǒng)的變量順序敏感的。</p><p>　　本文介紹結(jié)構(gòu)如下：第二節(jié)回顧了討論貿(mào)易條件和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的文獻(xiàn)。第三節(jié)揭示了本研究的方法和數(shù)據(jù)。第四節(jié)呈現(xiàn)實(shí)證的結(jié)果和討論的結(jié)論。第五節(jié)做總結(jié)。</p><p>　　2．貿(mào)易條件和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的文獻(xiàn)綜述</p><p>　　這里有很多研究貿(mào)

43、易條件和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間關(guān)系的資料。Mendoza使用了1971年到1991年之間的橫截面數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)考察了貿(mào)易條件對(duì)40個(gè)工業(yè)發(fā)展中國(guó)家的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響。結(jié)果顯示貿(mào)易條件對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)產(chǎn)生積極的影響。此外，貿(mào)易條件的沖擊被報(bào)道幾乎占實(shí)際GDP的一半的變化。還有經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)緩慢的國(guó)際貿(mào)易條件波動(dòng)高。Bleaney 和 Greenaway使用了1980年到1995年之間的橫截面數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)研究貿(mào)易條件對(duì)14個(gè)撒哈拉以南的非洲國(guó)家的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響。他們發(fā)現(xiàn)貿(mào)易條件

44、的增加將導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的增加。Hadass 和 Williamson使用了1870年到1940男之間的橫截面數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)研究貿(mào)易條件和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間的關(guān)系。他們發(fā)現(xiàn)盡管貿(mào)易條件的流動(dòng)有利于初級(jí)產(chǎn)品的出口，卻減少了出口國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。此外，還有核心和外圍之間不對(duì)稱的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的有力證據(jù)。一般來(lái)說(shuō)，貿(mào)易條件對(duì)核心和外圍的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響非常的小。在戰(zhàn)前時(shí)期，用貿(mào)易條件的變化來(lái)解釋少于人均GDP的五分之一的增長(zhǎng)速度的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。然而，這項(xiàng)研究包含少數(shù)的仍然相當(dāng)

45、于二戰(zhàn)時(shí)期貧困的發(fā)展中國(guó)家。</p><p>　　在另一方面，Blattman等人分析了1870年到1937年超過(guò)半世紀(jì)的35個(gè)國(guó)家的世界大戰(zhàn)期間的數(shù)據(jù)。他們發(fā)現(xiàn)貿(mào)易條件對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)產(chǎn)生了重大影響。貿(mào)易條件對(duì)外圍的影響大于對(duì)核心的影響。一個(gè)貿(mào)易條件的下降所經(jīng)歷的邊緣代表七十年之間的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的主要拖放。此外，還有核心和外圍之間的不對(duì)稱。貿(mào)易條件或貿(mào)易條件波動(dòng)性似乎對(duì)核心作用不大，特別是貿(mào)易條件波動(dòng)性幾乎對(duì)核心和外圍的

46、作用一樣。然而，貿(mào)易條件似乎已經(jīng)在解釋經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的外圍發(fā)揮了作用。核心能夠逃過(guò)貿(mào)易條件不穩(wěn)定性所造成的破壞性后果但顯然不能避免對(duì)周邊初級(jí)產(chǎn)品的出口。Blattman等人對(duì)35個(gè)國(guó)家在1870年到1939年之間的聘用期間的面板數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行了分析。他們報(bào)告了與早些日子相同的結(jié)論。他們還發(fā)現(xiàn)貿(mào)易條件的長(zhǎng)期變化對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)都產(chǎn)生了重大影響。貿(mào)易條件的長(zhǎng)期變化對(duì)周邊的影響大于對(duì)核心的影響。然而，貿(mào)易條件的長(zhǎng)期變化對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響小于貿(mào)易條件波動(dòng)性對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增

47、長(zhǎng)的影響。貿(mào)易條件對(duì)邊緣和核心的影響是不一樣的。</p><p>　　Turnovsky 和Chattopadhyay審查了來(lái)自61個(gè)欠發(fā)達(dá)的國(guó)家在1975年到1992年之間的各種波動(dòng)性來(lái)源（產(chǎn)出的波動(dòng)，貿(mào)易的波動(dòng)，政府范圍的波動(dòng)開(kāi)支和貨幣的波動(dòng)）對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響。數(shù)據(jù)一年分析一次。他們還將分成31個(gè)高波動(dòng)國(guó)家和30個(gè)低波國(guó)家這兩個(gè)子樣本。發(fā)現(xiàn)貿(mào)易條件的增加對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響較小，也沒(méi)有顯著的證據(jù)表明政府的支出或貨

48、幣對(duì)供給增長(zhǎng)有影響。然而，他們發(fā)現(xiàn)貿(mào)易條件的波動(dòng)性，政府支出的波動(dòng)和貨幣的波動(dòng)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)產(chǎn)生負(fù)面影響。波動(dòng)性可能會(huì)降低資本的密集度，特別是當(dāng)一個(gè)國(guó)家面臨債務(wù)上升的傾斜的供給曲線。貿(mào)易條件的平均速度對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)平均率具有弱陽(yáng)性影響。Grimes探討了在新西蘭的貿(mào)易條件對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響。結(jié)果顯示，大約超過(guò)45年的將近一半的全年GDP可以用貿(mào)易條件的波動(dòng)性和水平解釋。四個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)體制的關(guān)系式健全的。</p><p>　　理論

49、上和實(shí)際上探討貿(mào)易條件和收入在工業(yè)化國(guó)家之間的長(zhǎng)期關(guān)系。這項(xiàng)研究提供了兩種理論渠道，涉及建立在隨機(jī)動(dòng)態(tài)的一般均衡模型的貿(mào)易條件和收入的關(guān)系。國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)的影響預(yù)測(cè)國(guó)家的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的發(fā)展會(huì)真實(shí)的反應(yīng)在它們的貿(mào)易條件上。生產(chǎn)率沖擊效應(yīng)預(yù)測(cè)國(guó)家貿(mào)易條件將隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的增加而降低。</p><p><b>　　3．方法和數(shù)據(jù)</b></p><p>　　在這項(xiàng)研究中，探究貿(mào)易條件對(duì)

50、經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響基于一條增量生產(chǎn)函數(shù)。更具體地說(shuō)，本文考察了三個(gè)向量。第一個(gè)向量包括實(shí)際GDP，勞動(dòng)，資本，石油價(jià)格和金融發(fā)展。第二個(gè)向量與第一個(gè)向量一樣，只是將貿(mào)易條件波動(dòng)性代替貿(mào)易條件，這是由移動(dòng)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差和四階取代的的，換而言之就是由MSD（4）條款取代的。第三個(gè)向量與第二個(gè)向量一樣，但貿(mào)易波動(dòng)條件有廣義異方差回歸模型計(jì)算，換而言之就是GARCH（1，1）.9模型。</p><p>　　據(jù)記載，石油價(jià)格的變化與宏

51、觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的表現(xiàn)密切相關(guān)。Backus 和Crucini使用了一般均衡動(dòng)態(tài)模型找到了是在過(guò)去25年里的不同的貿(mào)易條件引起的石油的價(jià)格在很大程度的定量作用格式不相同的。此外，他么還報(bào)告在1972年至1987年期間，工業(yè)化國(guó)家的貿(mào)易條件主要來(lái)自于石油價(jià)格的變化。而且，自從布雷頓森林體系的結(jié)束以來(lái)貿(mào)易條件波動(dòng)的增加似乎主要是由于石油價(jià)格波動(dòng)的增加而不是由于名義或?qū)嶋H匯率波動(dòng)的增加。因此，石油價(jià)格是確定貿(mào)易條件的重要因素。</p>&

52、lt;p>　　一個(gè)健全的金融體系對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)很重要。財(cái)務(wù)制度：（1）便利的交易，套期保值，分散和承擔(dān)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)；（2）分配資源；（3）監(jiān)督管理和發(fā)揮公司的控制作用；（4）動(dòng)員儲(chǔ)蓄；（5）促進(jìn)貨物和服務(wù)的交流。利用增加的金融工具和制度來(lái)減少經(jīng)濟(jì)的交易和信息成本。然而，根據(jù)實(shí)證研究發(fā)現(xiàn)發(fā)展金融和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間的關(guān)系。</p><p>　　用DF單位根統(tǒng)計(jì)量來(lái)檢驗(yàn)數(shù)據(jù)的平穩(wěn)性。這個(gè)協(xié)整方法是用來(lái)研究向量與變量之間的長(zhǎng)期關(guān)系