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1、原文:原文:ThehazardofmalhazardinterventiontosavetheeconomymaybeendangeringitByJamesK.GlassmanWhensomeoneinsuresyouagainsttheconsequencesofanastyeventoddlyenoughberaisestheincentivesfyoutobehaveinawaythatwillcausetheevent.Soi

2、fyourdiamondringisinsuredf$50000youaremelikelytoleaveitoutofthesafe.Economistscallthisphenomenon“malhazard“ifyoulookaroundyouwillseeiteverywhere.“Withautomobilecollisioninsurancefexampleoneismelikelytoventurefthonanicyni

3、ght“writesHarvardeconomistRidZeckhauser.FederaldepositinsurancemadeSafteralltheinsurercanraisepremiums)butfromimplicitones.Ifyourteenagerthinksyouwillbailhimoutofjailfixitwiththejudgeifhegetsarrestedthenhewillbemeapttodr

4、ivedrunk.MebroadlyintherescuersinstitutedpoliciesthatmadetheefftsofTimesCommitteetoSavetheWldseemquaint.InthecommitteesheydaytheAsiansgot$40billioninhelptheRussians$23billiontheGreenwichhedgefundguys$4billion.Butin200820

5、09justtwoprogramsinonecountry—AmericasTroubledAssetsReliefProgram(TARP)itsstimuluspackagetogethertotalmethan$1.5trillion.MeanwhiletheFedcutshtterminterestratestozerotheWhiteHouseCongressdecidedtosavethecountryslargestins

6、urancecompany(AmericanInternationalGroupAIG)itslargestsecondlargestautomakers(GeneralMotsChrysler)itstwolargestprovidersofmtgagefinancing(FannieMaeFreddieMac)variousgiganticcommercialinvestmentbanksfinancecompanies.Thecr

7、eepingdreadisthatpreviousrescuepolicieshadinducedthemalhazardthatmadethe200809crisisnotonlyinevitablebutalsofarwseinscalethantheeconomicdisruptionsthathadcomebefe—thatthe200809rescuewillinduceadisasterwsestill.Thefinanci

8、alhistianlesKindlebergerinhisclassicManiasPanicsCrasheshaditrightmethan30yearsagowhenhedescribed“themalhazardthatthemeinterventionisttheauthitiesarewithrespecttothecurrentcrisisthemeintensethenextbubblewillbebecausemanyo

9、fthemarketparticipantswillbelievethattheirpossiblelosseswillbelimitedbygovernmentmeasures.“HowmuchmalhazardissloshingaroundthewldThatcantbemeasuredbutPeterL.BernsteinoneofthegreathistiansofeconomicriskwroteinJune:“Themal

10、hazardimposedonthesysteminrecentmonthsistrulymindbogglinginscalescope.Acrosstheglobethebanksinsurerswhoseerrsofjudgmentcreatedthebubbleshavebeenbailedoutwithouthesitation.“BernsteinwhodiedinJuneat91wrotethosewdsinashtman

11、upublishedposthumouslybytheHarvardBusinessReview.Hearguednotjustthatthereisagreatdealofmalhazardaroundbutalsothatunlikeinthepastfewpeopleseemwriedaboutit.Hewascertainlyalonelyvoice.“Iamdisturbed“hewrote“bythealmostcomple

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