貨幣金融學 chp01 introduction08 年

1、貨幣金融學Economics of Money,Banking and Financial Markets,瞿 強School of Finance, RUCSpring, 2008,Chp.1 IntroductionTopics Covered,課程簡介 Syllabus(1) “金融” v. “Finance” JEL分類 (2) 宏觀經(jīng)濟學、貨幣經(jīng)濟學與金融經(jīng)濟學的發(fā)展演變(3) 貨幣簡介(4) 貨幣與信

2、用(5) 金融體系,3,Reading List,黃達，Chp.1，“貨幣與貨幣制度” Chp.2，“信用“ Chp.3，“金融” Chp.11, “金融體系格局”,4,1. 《貨幣銀行學》,《金融學》, Finance傳統(tǒng)上，金融體系 ? 貨幣＋銀行但是，世界在變化“Finance” v. “金融”其他國家與地區(qū)的情況JEL

3、貨幣經(jīng)濟學V.金融經(jīng)濟學,5,A: General Economics and Teaching B: Methodology and History of Economic Thought C: Mathematical and Quantitative Methods D: Microeconomics E: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics E1 General Aggregat

4、ive Models E2 Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment E3 Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles E4 Money and Interest Rates E5 Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Cred

5、it E6 Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, Macroeconomic Policy,,6,F: International EconomicsG: Financial Economics G1 General Financial Markets G2 Financial Institutions and Services G3 Corporate Finance and Go

6、vernance H: Public Economics I: Health, Education, and Welfare J: Labor and Demographic Economics K: Law and Economics,7,貨幣金融學的基本框架,,,Macro; Micro; Econometrics,,,M&B,CF,Investment,國金,財政,會計,管理,等等,8,2.宏觀經(jīng)濟學與貨幣經(jīng)濟學的

7、發(fā)展,9,10,大蕭條Great Depression : 1929-1933U.S.: Stock Market(-90%); GDP(-28%); Unemployment(25%); Bank Failure (30%)宏觀經(jīng)濟學與政策的分水嶺（Watershed of Macro theories and Policy）Explanations:古典（Classical）凱恩斯（Keynes）

8、其他解釋QQ：多種因素重疊（overlapping）; 特別是經(jīng)濟穩(wěn)定的制度安排（esp. institution）,11,核心問題或主線（Key Issues）:(1) 政府與市場（Market v. Government）(2) 貨幣中性與非中性（Money: neutral v. active）,12,金融經(jīng)濟學Financial Economics:Finance， by Bodie & Merton ,20

9、00. Pearson Education.Capital Ideas: The Modern Improbable Origins of Modern Wall Street by P. Bernstein, 1992, the Free Press.《投資革命》 ，上海遠東，2001。1952： Markowitz1958： M ＆M1973：Black , Scholes and Merton,13,,,

10、14,3. 貨幣概述,What is “Money”?“人生識字糊涂始”“貨幣恐怕也如此”日常生活用語：“出門買菜要帶錢！”“這支冰棍多少錢？”“某某最近買了一棟別墅，真是有錢人哪！?。　?15,Introduction of Money,貨幣定義：（Economist’s Meaning of Money）Anything that is generally accepted in payment for goods

11、and services,16,關(guān)于貨幣的主要問題（Qs on MONEY）:(1)貨幣職能 What Functions it performs?(2)存在和發(fā)展 How it comes into existence and what causes it to change over time?(3)是否重要 Is it important? And important for what?,17,“When a student

12、 is asked ‘what is money’, he has still no choice but to give the conventional answer. Money is defined by its functions: anything is money which is used as money: ‘money is what money does’. And the functions of money a

13、re threefold: to act as a unit of account (or ‘measure of value’ as Wicksell puts it), as a means of payment, and as a store of value.” ----Hicks, 1967, Ch.1,18,貨幣職能Functions of MoneyOld question, but the answ

14、er keeps on changing.1.交易媒介Medium of exchange2.價值儲藏Store of value3.計價單位 Unit of account延期支付 Deferred payment – credit.,19,貨幣的演變（Evolution of Money: 思想實驗“thought experiment”:物物交換經(jīng)濟的困難 Barter Economy:商品貨幣 Commod

15、ity money金屬貨幣Metallic money: Money by weight ; Coin銀行券 Bank note (commercial bank)法幣或法償 Fiat money, legal tender: 可兌換與不可兌換Convertible v. inconvertible; 電子貨幣 E-money？,20,貨幣本位Money Standard,21,貨幣歷史簡述中國 China:西

16、方 Western:,22,中國商·周時期（BC2000－BC221）： 貝殼為主，銅為輔中國春秋戰(zhàn)國時期（BC.770－BC.221）： 刀幣；布幣；圜錢；蟻鼻錢 秦始皇：半兩錢；“天圓地方”。（前221年） 西漢：五銖錢；（武帝元狩五年，前118年） 唐朝：改重量為“通寶”，加年號；（618年） 宋元明清：銅錢為主，白銀逐步貨幣化。(外部影響)Q: 黃金在中國是貨幣嗎？Why？,23

17、,Paper Money:中國：唐朝：“飛錢”；（屬匯票，但未見流通）宋朝：“交子”；元朝：通朝使用紙幣；明朝：“大明寶鈔”；清朝：“戶部官票”＋“大清寶鈔”；中外銀行民國：1935年11月“法幣”；1948年8月“金圓券”中華人民共和國：1948年12月,RMB,24,西方 West：Lydia（BC.650）GreeceRome - PersianEurope,25,貨幣本位 Money standard:

18、銀本位: before 13th Century復本位:13th－1870s 金本位: 1816－1971England case：1690s; 1717；1816France, Germany, U.S. ect. :1870s金幣本位: Before 1914金塊本位:1920-1930金匯兌本位:critical point to modern money system!1944 布雷頓森林體系, 1971.8.1

19、5,26,Exchange rate of Gold-Silver in West： 13th --19th century：1：15（Stable！） 1870s －1900： 1：30（Decline?。?(1870，silver supply growth rapidly in Nevada, US。),27,中國最早的匯率風暴：銀價下跌,28,黃金的未來: “黃金在未來的國際貨幣體系中仍將

20、發(fā)揮作用。自從勒菲替蒂（Nefertiti）[BC.,1400,Queen of Egypt] 時代以來，全世界的金礦總共生產(chǎn)了32億盎斯的黃金（12萬噸）?。10億盎斯在中央銀行金庫里，10億多盎斯變成了首飾和工藝品；剩下的就在投機者手里。格林斯潘曾經(jīng)說過：只要一有機會，他就要關(guān)注投機者手里的黃金儲備。我利用三個指標來觀察經(jīng)濟中的通貨膨脹：貨幣供應量、利率和黃金價格。你可以從債券市場看出這三者的關(guān)系。一旦黃金價格暴漲，你就知道

21、，通貨膨脹的預期正在上升。”--Mundell,29,,30,紙幣的發(fā)展Paper money in West：(1)商業(yè)革命 Commercial revolution and short of money(2)戰(zhàn)爭 與紙幣實驗Inconvertable paper money experiments:5 casesFrance: J.Law (1719-1702)France Revolution: Assignats

22、England: the Suspension of payment (1979-1821)U.S.: Independent WarU.S.: Civil Law(War & Revolution: Government financing or Seigniorage!),31,推動貨幣演變的力量 (1) 格雷欣法則（Gresham’s Law）Q：張之洞鑄7錢3分重的銀幣，驅(qū)趕流通在中國的7錢2分重的外國銀幣。能

23、成功嗎？(2)鑄幣稅（ Seigniorage）Analysis on Lydia’s Coin(3) 交易成本 + 信心,32,貨幣層次Measurement of Money Mo: 通貨 CurrencyM1:Mo +活期存款 demand depositM2:M1+ 定期存款term depositM3: ……. (Mx?)現(xiàn)階段我國貨幣供應量的三個層次:M0: 流通中現(xiàn)金M1: 即貨幣=M0+活期存款

24、M2: M1 + 準貨幣(定期存款+儲蓄存款 +其他存款),33,Fed’s Monetary Aggregates,34,幾個問題Qs：(1)貨幣的私人發(fā)行與公共發(fā)行（Transaction cost?。?(2)美國案例 U.S. early 90s，artist Glover issued DIY Currency，in Ithaca, NY., one “Ithaca Hours” =10USD；成功的地方貨幣most s

25、uccessful local currency!,35,中國：某鄉(xiāng)長能否通過篡改幣值（加蓋公章），制造局部流通貨幣？代幣券為什么不允許？ 擾亂貨幣秩序？非也，關(guān)鍵在于稅收流失！ 分析問題要從不同的角度看。網(wǎng)絡公司取代銀行？ Point:什么是“銀行”？貨幣為什么要公共發(fā)行？這個問題的可能答案是“銀行電子化、網(wǎng)絡化”。,36,Motivation Q: Neutrality of Money? “Neutrality of

26、 money” is a summary expression for the quantity theory proposition that a change in the quantity of money results in a proportionate change in the absolute price level, but leave relative prices, the real interest rate,

27、 real income, real wealth, and thence real output, unaffected.,37,4.貨幣與信用,信用的界定現(xiàn)代經(jīng)濟是信用經(jīng)濟個人信用；商業(yè)信用；政府信用Personal/Commercial/Government Credit,38,The Relative Size of the Monetary Aggregates and DNFD as of Year End 2003(U

28、.S.),,39,The Monetary Aggregates and DNFD, 1960-2003(U.S.),40,5. 金融體系Financial System,,什么是金融What is FINANCE?金融學是研究如何在不確定的條件下進行稀缺資源跨期配置的科學。Finance as a scientific discipline is the study of how to allocate scarce resourc

29、es over time under conditions of uncertainty.三個支柱 (1) 跨期最優(yōu)配置optimization over time;(2)資產(chǎn)價值評估 asset valuation;(3) 風險管理 risk management;,41,Function of Financial Sector,42,金融的基本功能:儲蓄向投資轉(zhuǎn)化.（1）不同主體之間的轉(zhuǎn)化: realize potent

30、ial opportunity, improve economic efficiency（2）同一個主體，不同時間之間的轉(zhuǎn)化, improve welfare in the whole lifetime.,43,金融體系的比較Qs背景: 銀行在衰亡Bank is dying!?什么是金融體系What is Financial System？為什么有不同的金融體系Why different systems？偶然By accid

31、ent? 政策Policy or regulation? 對經(jīng)濟發(fā)展有影響嗎?收斂Convergence? 什么方向 what direction?推動力量Driving forces?,44,中國金融體系的動向:靜態(tài)Statically, near Japan/Germany;動態(tài)Dynamically, moving forward to US/UK.,45,金融體系Financial System:(1)金融部門Fi

32、nancial Sector；(2)融資模式與公司治理Financing Pattern and Corporate Governance；(3)管制體系Regulation System.,46,傳統(tǒng)觀點Conventional View:市場主導Market-based, Market-dominated. (US, UK)銀行主導Bank-based, Bank-dominated. (Japan, Ger

33、many, France),47,圖表1 International Comparison（1993年）（unit：billion USD；％）,資料來源：Allen and Gale(2001), P72.,48,梅耶的困惑Mayer’ s Puzzle,C. Mayer’Q：(1988; 1990),49,,圖表2 德日英美四國企業(yè)凈資金來源：1970－1994,資料來源：德、日、英、美Corbett and Jenkinson

34、(1997, p 74)；法Bertero(1994).,50,Sources of External Finance in U.S,51,Sources of Foreign External Finance,52,Cf. Bodie & Merton, 1995; Global Financial System功能觀點與機構(gòu)觀點 Functional v. institutional perspectives：.

35、,53,3 儲蓄向投資轉(zhuǎn)化的三個核心問題 ：（1）公司治理Corporate Governance（2）風險分散與管理Risk sharing and management (3) 信息處理Information procession and distribution,54,儲蓄,,,,市場,,歷史起源、法律制度、會計制度等,,55,(1)公司治理 委托代理的制度安排德美比較,56,(2) 風險橫向分散與縱向分散,57

36、,(3)信息 Information信息不對稱Asymmetric Information: Akelof ,1971.事先(Ax ante):逆向選擇 “Adverse Selection” 事后(Ax post): 道德風險“Moral Hazard”,58,證券市場的“逆向選擇”或“檸檬問題”Lemons Problem in Securities Markets1.Investors won’t want t

37、o buy bad securities, so market won’t function well.Real case in China: go abroad!,59,如何解決 Adverse Selection (Lemons) Problem,私人生產(chǎn)信息Private Production and Sale of Information但是，免費乘車問題Free-rider problem interferes wit

38、h this solution2.政府管制Government Regulation to Increase Information3.金融中介Financial IntermediationA.類似于車商貸款信息不公開 making private loans債務合約,60,(4)路徑依賴Path-Dependence歷史History法律Law未來Future:市場與中介的合作Coordination b