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1、3350 英文單詞, 英文單詞,17500 英文字符,中文 英文字符,中文 5300 字文獻(xiàn)出處: 文獻(xiàn)出處:Dziadosz A, Tomczyk A, Kapliński O. Financial Risk Estimation in Construction Contracts [J]. Procedia Engineering, 2015, 122:120-128.Financial risk estimation in con
2、struction contractsAgnieszka Dziadosz, Andrzej Tomczyk, Oleg KaplińskiAbstractRisk, as a factor adversely affecting the project, is taken into account as early as at the first stage of the investment process when the ten
3、der is won for a contract. The risk level, identified for a particular construction contract, is a serious factor influencing the decision about accepting the contract or not. The key issue is proper identification of co
4、ntract risk. The risk factors which have a significant impact on the success of the project, and are most common ones, are then analyzed. The method of verification depends on the company's experience in the construc
5、tion industry. The task of the article is to present the results of studies focused on separating and determining the frequency of financial risk factors in construction projects and their impact on project implementatio
6、n. We have analyzed 30 construction projects (office buildings, production halls, educational buildings, demolition works, etc.) completed in north-western Poland. The degree of risk (planned and real) for the contract w
7、as set as a percentage in relation to the size of contract (costs in million PLN). The aim of the study was to verify the existence of relationship between the kind of structure, the size of contract, and the scope and d
8、egree of risk. Statistical approach has been used. This study is a prelude to determining the contract risks identification procedure (i.e., estimating reserves to be used in unforeseen circumstances) so that the company
9、 could be competitive, and the price offer to be provided to investors could be advantageous.Keywords: construction contracts, risk management, financial risk, decision-making process in construction project.1. Introduct
10、ionProject planning, if it is to be efficiently implemented, requires making a number of decisions that have their finale in the smooth running of construction work. This is possible thanks to examining a project from it
11、s many aspects and angles, also in terms of likelihood of adverse situations (i.e., risk factors). The risk, as a factor adversely affecting the project, is weighed at the first stage of the investment process, namely at
12、 the stage of winning a contract through tender. In view of the situation in the construction industry, where the main aim is to minimize the costs of construction work, as well as to gradually decrease the prices for co
13、nstruction work, procuring an offer for construction work is very difficult. On the one hand, a construction company tries to maximize the profit (in order to secure funds for new investments, and cover possible expenses
14、 associated with the occurrence of risk factors during construction). On the other hand, a construction company tries to be competitive and tries give the investor the best price offer. The following question arises – at
15、 what level risk should be taken in case of a particular contract in order to win the tender and to secure funding for risks which are very difficult to assess. In the course of project implementation, different situatio
16、ns may occur which, at first glance, may seem unfavourable but, in consequence, may bring financial savings due to the changes of construction techniques, work scope or changes in organization. Construction companies usu
17、ally analyze most common risk factors, and excluded from the agreement. You can also agree with investors that including risks in the cost is an unnecessary multiplication of costs and an unnecessary burden on the budget
18、 of the project. It concerns cases where risks may not occur at all or the occurrence of risks can be reduced in collaboration with the investor.The most common types of contracts are: a lump sum contract, a quantity sur
19、vey contract, and GMP (guaranteed maximum price) contract. The first is used quite often by private investors and almost always by the public investors. In principle, the contractor bears all the risks in this type of ag
20、reement and, therefore, the contractor should include everything in the offer. It is quite difficult because not everything can be predicted. Firstly, it results in price increase since the contractor must, after all, pr
21、ovide additional financial resources to cover the unexpected costs and, secondly, if this is not done problems with liquidity during the execution of the contract may occur. In theory, such problems do not concern invest
22、ors, but only apparently. When there are problems with project financing, the contractor seeks a remedy, using different alternative plans. Usually, quality suffers; often the deadline has to be shifted. Despite the use
23、of penalties against the contractor, losses associated with the subsequent completion of investments are difficult to estimate and disproportionate to the penalties imposed, often larger than may seem from the penalties.
24、 A court settlement as an option is not always profitable. Court proceedings may be long, and the outcome uncertain.In a contract based on unit prices, serious risks associated with the quantities of materials and labour
25、 are marginal. It greatly facilitates submitting the offer and minimizes the risks. Errors associated with the bill of quantities occur in a half the studied contracts. In 30 analyzed cases, errors occurred in 16 (repres
26、enting 53.3%, while for 29 contracts, it was 51.52%).The least risks are associated with a GMP contract. There, working according to an open-book principle, the contractor and the investor collaborate in order to optimiz
27、e costs and jointly select subcontractors.3. Risk in a construction projectRisk, or measurable part of uncertainty, should be treated as an opportunity to deviate from the desired level. Therefore, positive deviation (a
28、chance) and negative (a loss) must be taken into account. Raftery [22] says: Risk and uncertainty characterize situations where the actual outcome of a particular event or activity is likely to deviate from the estimate
29、of forecast value The literature quotes many divisions and classifications of risk factors, such as: according to character, impact, origin, categories of decisions taken to achieve specific objectives, risk measures, et
30、c. [1-32]. A thorough presentation of categories risk was given in [24-26]. The basic classification of random factors includes the following groups: financial risk, technological risk, economic risk, risk of the organiz
31、ation, management risk, time-span risk, and legal risk. Each project may be analyzed according to the so-called check list. However, given the unique nature of the projects, variety of conditions of work execution, a che
32、ck list should be flexible, allowing for specification of risk factors in relation to the investment. Construction companies usually analyze most common risk factors, and those that have major impact on the implementatio
33、n of work. Verification methods depend on the experience of companies in the construction industry. The presented studies concern the previously scheduled in-groups and risk factors. The aim of the analysis is to identif
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