邯鄲市安全形勢發(fā)展的灰色預(yù)測研究.pdf

1、西安科技大學(xué)碩士學(xué)位論文邯鄲市安全形勢發(fā)展的灰色預(yù)測研究姓名：郄雷敏申請學(xué)位級別：碩士專業(yè)：安全技術(shù)及工程指導(dǎo)教師：常心坦2011Subject : Study on Grey Forecasting of The Development of HanDan Safety Situation Specialty : Safety Technology and Engineering Name : Qie Leimin

2、 (Signature) Instructor : Chang Xintan (Signature) ABSTRACT Along with the rapid development of economy and social reform in China, the urbanization all over the

3、 country has been pushed to a new stage, and the safety issues of industrial productionin cities have become a key problem of social concern. The trend forecast of industrial safety in urban areas can be effectively appl

4、ied to safety management, analysis of existing problems, and decision making in promoting production safety in an effort to substantially reduce production accidents, thus is very important in urban safety management an

5、d control. The urgency and great importance of the urban production safety forcast are elaborated in this article firstly. Then, the normal accident theory and the methods in prediction of accidents at home and broad are

6、 overiewed. We compared the differences between the different methods and chose Grey as the best theory in our study. For the characteristics of the urban production safety accidents, selects the grey forecasting is the

7、best method to study now. The statistical analysis of the production safety accident data in Handan were carried on to study the accident safety trends. Considering the advantage of Grey in study of the grey system- with

8、 both knwon and unknwon information, we chose GM(1,1) as the fundamental model. Also, we made amends for it according the acctual conditions, and then we established our study model. Basing on this model and the historic

9、al data of production accidents in Handan, we predicted the some numbers in the accidents in 2009, such as total number of deaths. The prediction numbers is coincide with the real numbers and with high precision, which i

10、ndicate that, this model is suitable to the trend forecast of industrial safety in urban areas. And the grey is is one feasible forecasting to predict the development of the safety situation in the city of great practica