武器裝備應(yīng)急采辦風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理研究.pdf

1、天津大學(xué)博士學(xué)位論文武器裝備應(yīng)急采辦風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理研究姓名：馬建軍申請(qǐng)學(xué)位級(jí)別：博士專業(yè)：管理科學(xué)與工程指導(dǎo)教師：陳士俊20090901ABSTRACTWeaponEquipmentacquisitioniscomplicatedsystemengineering，allkindsofriskaccompaniesallthelifecyclecontingencyacquisitionriskisespeciallyabnormalityh

2、ardtocontr01TheamouhtonriskidentificationandassessinformationdirectlyaffectstheprojectofWeaponEquipmentandextentofeconomiclossHowevertheriskofWeaponEquipmentcontingencyacquisitionispresentableandcanbeunderstandandcontrol

3、ledbypeople’SresearchSohowtoidentifyandassessriskbetterisupagainstthekeyofprojectThispaperstudiesdeeply“behindschedule，spurspending，reduceguideline”ofWeaponEquipmentcontingencyacquisition，identificationsevenrisksourcesof

4、equipmeritacquisition，requirementrisktechniqueriskexpenditurerisktimeriskabilityriskmanagementriskandenvironmentriskAnalysestheinnerandoutercomplicationbysystemdynamicsmethod，establishriskintegrationmanagementmodelforequ

5、ipmentacquisitionRiskmanagementofWeaponEquipmentcontingencyacquisitioniselaboratedinthepaperthroughprojectmanagementtheories，riskmanagementtheories，andequil：ImeritacquisitionmanagementtheoriesBvtheresearchoftheWeaponEqui

6、pmentcontingencyacquisitionriskidentification，thepaperliststheriskidentificationsschemeforequipmentacquisitionlifecycleAnalysesriskprobabilityofeverstage，theaftereffectandthedynamicidentityestablishthelifecycleriskassess

7、mentguidelinesystemofweaponequipmentcontingencyacquisitionListthemethodsofriskassessmentforweaponequipmentcontingencyacquisitionTheriskstatusiswellknowbytheresearcherAtthesametime。modelandeludestrategyforvariousriskisput

8、forwardedIntheend，thepaperemphasizesontheviablemethods一FAHPandArtificialNeuralNetworkandthenitanalvzessomemissilecontingencyacquisitionprojectbythemethodResultsindicateessentialoftheriskmanagementinthecontingencyacquisit