27中英文雙語外文文獻(xiàn)翻譯成品基于衍生金融工具的會(huì)計(jì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析

1、<p><b>　　原文</b></p><p>　　Analysis of accounting risk based on derivative financial instruments</p><p><b>　　Gao Lin</b></p><p>　　Keywords: Derivative fi

2、nancial instruments; accounting risk; statistics; regression</p><p>　　Abstract. By selecting the listed commercial banks as the sample and other related financial ratios which affect earnings and risks of co

3、mmercial banks, its empirical analysis has been carried out using SPSS16.0. And then connect the index that investors are more concerned about in financial indicators with the main line- the proportion of derivative fina

4、ncial instruments. The use of derivative financial instruments could reduce bad loans of commercial banks through descriptive analysis and regr</p><p>　　Introduction</p><p>　　With the continuous

5、 development and modification of China's financial markets, the derivative financial instrument which is the financial innovation product has been getting closer and closer to us [1, 2, 3]. But due to the integration

6、 of the global economy, China's capital market closely linked to the world market. The fluctuation of some financial products such as interest rates, exchange rates, stocks, bonds could affect rise and fall of many c

7、ompanies, and even the stability of a country's e</p><p>　　By selecting the listed commercial banks as the sample and other related financial ratios which affect earnings and risks of commercial banks, i

8、ts empirical analysis has been carried out using SPSS16.0. And then connect the index that investors are more concerned about in financial indicators with the main line- the proportion of derivative financial instruments

9、. After observing the test value of this model could go through the critical value standard, making the classification of different fina</p><p>　　The connotation of the derivative financial instruments accou

10、nting risk</p><p>　　Derivative financial instrument is a bilateral contract or payment exchange agreement based on the future. Its value is taken or derived from the price of the relevant subject matter and

11、its changes, which include but are not limited to stocks, bonds, currencies, interest rates, exchange rates and index [6]. The connotation of derivative financial instruments could be generalized into:① the value of deri

12、vative financial instruments will vary and change with the name of the subject matter and ter</p><p>　　Origin of derivative financial instruments is from avoiding risks. Avoiding risk is the most</p>

13、<p>　　important function. Derivatives trading in particular floor trading has a large number of traders who will analyze and forecast price dynamics on the basis of collected information. They reach an agreement for

14、 sale by public auction to ensure the unity of the price in space and advance and coherence in time. The rentability of derivative transactions mainly includes the income from the operation and revenues from derivatives

15、brokers.</p><p>　　Derivative financial instruments accounting risk is the combination between the instruments and accounting risks. Therefore it has the characters of the instruments and accounting risks. Th

16、at is to say, Derivative financial instruments accounting risk poses the characters of objectivity, severity, uncertainty and uncontrollable nature from accounting risk. At the same time it also has high risk, financial

17、leverage, uncertainty and other features from derivative financial instruments.</p><p>　　Empirical Analysis of derivative financial instruments based on risk</p><p>　　Sample Analysis: In this pa

18、per, 10 listed commercial banks in Shanghai and Shenzhen have been selected randomly. Put annual data from 2011 to 2013 as the object. And then finalize total of 30 samples in three years as the raw data for statistical

19、models. Some commonly- used data indicators are used in this paper including earnings per share, the NPL ratio, loan provision ratio, ROE, capital adequacy ratio, etc. which could be obtained directly from basic financia

20、l data from the company in Securi</p><p>　　Selecting and removing of variables: Selecting the common financial ratios which could reflect listed commercial bank profitability as explanatory variables, financ

21、ial ratios related to derivative financial instruments as explanatory variables. By the replacement of the four explanatory variables in the statistical model, SPSS16.0 has been performed to do statistical analysis. And

22、then significant analysis has been conducted by outputting results to determine whether significant explanatory vari</p><p>　　Explanatory variables: X1: Derivatives / Total Assets (%); X2: ROE (%); X3: risk-

23、weighted assets yield (%); X4: NPL ratio (%);</p><p>　　Variable being explained variables: Y1: Operating margin (%); Y2: Capital Adequacy Ratio (%); Y3: loan provision ratio (%); Y4: earnings per share (RMB

24、/ share)</p><p>　　Descriptive statistical analysis: From Table 1, we can see that the maximum value of X1 (contract value of derivative financial instruments / total assets) was 24.54, the minimum is 1.95, a

25、 standard deviation of 8.14333, which is easy to see that there is a great gap and volatility in the proportion of derivatives financial instruments holding by China's listed commercial banks. The skewness of X2 (ROE

26、) indicates that the span is not great but its volatile is great. And there is great difference</p><p>　　Analysis of regression: The first linear equation is:</p><p>　　From Table 2, we first obs

27、erve the goodness of fit R2 is 0.869, relatively close to 1. So we could say that the initial linear regression model is feasible. In this paper, when we test the significance, we adopt α is 0.05.firstly, we test F. Sinc

28、e the number of samples in the model n is 30, the explanatory variable number is 4, the distribution from F to F is (4, 25). From statistical data table, we could acquire that (4,25) equals to 2.06. And from the above ta

29、ble, it is shown that F equals to </p><p>　　After removing the independent variable X2, the linear regression model has been proposed. The result is shown in Table 3. X1 (derivatives / Total assets) has play

30、ed a positive relationship role for Y1 (operating margin), but its weight ratio is much smaller than X3 (return on risk-weighted assets). The more X4 (NPL ratio) is, operating profit margin of commercial banks is lower.

31、The coefficient in the model is negative. Therefore, the equation has realistic meaning. So the proportion of derivat</p><p>　　From Table 4, for linear regression of Y2 is a failure, because the data obtaine

32、d from X1 t=0.227 which is less than critical value = t0.025 (25) = 2.06. The entire linear regression equation isn’t very significant. So it does not have statistical significance. From the results, I can safely infer t

33、hat Y2(capital adequacy ratio) is mandatory. Every listed commercial bank should reach the standard. Therefore, no matter how much X1 (derivative financial instruments / total assets) is, it could not</p><p>

34、;　　As can be seen from Table 4, only the absolute values of t from X1 and X3 are respectively 4.627 and 2.544 which are less than 2.052. At the same time, the values P of X1 and X3 are respectively0.000 and 0.017 which a

35、re less than 0.05. Therefore removing a variable in last step is effective. X1 (derivatives / Total assets) plays a reverse effect on Y3 (loan provision ratio), namely the larger of proportion of derivative financial ins

36、truments holding by listed commercial banks is, the smaller Y3 </p><p>　　From Table 5, the linear regression of Y4 is a failure, because the data X1(t) is 0.124 which is less than the critical value (t0.025

37、(25) = 2.06). This is not very significant in the linear regression equation. Therefore it has no practical statistical significance. We could not conclude that Y4 has no linear relationship with the other four independe

38、nt variables. Because coefficientβ1is 0, the initial regression equation has no significance. From the result of the regression model, I can safel</p><p>　　Accounting income, risk and disclosure</p>&

39、lt;p>　　The scale of derivative financial instruments has played a positive role in operating margin and brings returns for commercial banks. From the regression results by earnings, although the effects of instrument

40、on earnings are subtle, there is the rising trend of its scale.</p><p>　　From loan provision ratio, we can see that derivative financial instruments have inhibiting effect on the decrease in loans of commerc

41、ial banks. That is to say, the use of derivative financial instruments could reduce bad loans of commercial banks to realize risk reversion and preserve or increase the value. The development of derivative financial inst

42、ruments has real economic significance. To some extent, the use of derivative financial instruments could reduce economic turmoil and provide some</p><p>　　Establish a good model of quantitative analysis. Ch

43、anges in derivative financial instruments are the key factor in its complex and difficult to control. Therefore the establishment of a quantitative analysis model by the use of computer technology is a better solution to

44、 track changes in derivative financial instruments. To improve the company's internal risk control department, reduce operational risks, we should carry out authorized approval and control strictly for the derivative

45、 financial in</p><p>　　Conclusions</p><p>　　Because of the economic operation situation in the real market and investor’s transaction demand, the rules of derivative financial instruments could

46、be able to improve continuously. so the external economic environment could have influence on derivative financial instruments which could serve the market. By selecting the listed commercial banks as the sample and othe

47、r related financial ratios which affect earnings and risks of commercial banks, its empirical analysis has been carried out using </p><p>　　References</p><p>　　[1] Zhang Xiuyun. Research on Fina

48、ncial derivatives risk of accounting regulation [D].Hei Longjiang：Northeast Forestry University,2010.</p><p>　　[2] Liu Jing. Review of Chinese derivative financial instruments [J]..Journal of Shanghai Lixin

49、accounting college,2005,（05）：25-28.</p><p>　　[3] Wang Qibo. The characteristics of the derivative financial instruments accounting standards development[J]. Journal of Shanxi university of finance and econom

50、ics,2006,28(01)：125-127.</p><p>　　[4] Shan Rong. The disclosure of financial derivatives risk information：Based on the research analysis of the subprime crisis [J].China Business,2010,(01)：43-44.</p>

51、<p>　　[5] Guan Sujuan. The identification and control of Enterprise accounting risk [J]. China's collective economy,2010,（08）：149-151..</p><p>　　[6] Wu Lingling. The disclosure research on Derivativ

52、e financial instrument risk [J]. Management & Technology of SME,2009,（08）：76-76.</p><p>　　[7] Li Changyan. A brief analysis of derivative financial instruments accounting treatment [J]. Friends of Accoun

53、ting,2009,（03）：64-66.</p><p>　　[8] Zhang Tingting. The studies on derivative financial instruments accounting [D].Beijing：Capital University of Economics and Business,2010.</p><p>　　[9] Zhang Qi

54、ngyi. The research on Accounting problems of derivative financial instrument risk [D].Liao Ning：Northeast University of finance,2007.</p><p><b>　　譯文：</b></p><p>　　基于衍生金融工具的會(huì)計(jì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析<

55、/p><p><b>　　Gao Lin</b></p><p>　　關(guān)鍵詞：衍生金融工具; 會(huì)計(jì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn); 統(tǒng)計(jì);回歸</p><p>　　摘要：本文通過選取上市商業(yè)銀行作為樣本并選擇其他影響商業(yè)銀行盈利和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的相關(guān)財(cái)務(wù)比率指標(biāo)，采用SPSS16.0軟件對(duì)其進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析。之后將投資者更加關(guān)心的財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)與主流的衍生金融工具聯(lián)系起來。通過對(duì)結(jié)果進(jìn)行描述

56、性分析和回歸分析后，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)使用衍生金融工具可以降低商業(yè)銀行發(fā)生不良貸款的概率。最后實(shí)現(xiàn)對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的規(guī)避并提升其價(jià)值。</p><p><b>　　引言</b></p><p>　　伴隨著中國金融市場(chǎng)的不斷發(fā)展和變化，衍生金融工具，作為金融創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品已經(jīng)和我們?cè)阶咴浇黐1,2,3]。但由于全球經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化，中國的資本市場(chǎng)與世界市場(chǎng)緊密相連。利率、匯率、股票、債券等一些金融產(chǎn)品

57、的波動(dòng)會(huì)影響許多公司的興衰，甚至影響一國經(jīng)濟(jì)秩序的穩(wěn)定。衍生金融工具的特點(diǎn)，如杠桿和價(jià)格波動(dòng)決定了其自身的巨大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。許多投資者往往忽視了衍生交易利益風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的誘惑，給公司造成巨大的經(jīng)濟(jì)損失。衍生金融工具導(dǎo)致的各種危機(jī)使人們開始重新審視它的角色。如果要充分發(fā)揮衍生金融工具的積極作用，就應(yīng)該盡可能降低風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。會(huì)計(jì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是最關(guān)鍵的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)之一。因此，如何降低風(fēng)險(xiǎn)對(duì)于發(fā)揮衍生金融工具最大的正面作用至關(guān)重要。所以從這個(gè)角度探討衍生金融工具會(huì)計(jì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是非常必要的

58、。</p><p>　　本文通過選取上市商業(yè)銀行作為樣本并選擇其他影響商業(yè)銀行盈利和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的相關(guān)財(cái)務(wù)比率指標(biāo)，采用SPSS16.0軟件對(duì)其進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析。之后將投資者更加關(guān)心的財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)與主流的衍生金融工具聯(lián)系起來。在財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)告最終披露之后，觀察該模型的測(cè)試值能否達(dá)到臨界值標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，并對(duì)不同財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)進(jìn)行分類，從中可以看出衍生金融工具是否能夠避免商業(yè)銀行的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)以及是否可以提升效益。</p><p>　　

59、衍生金融工具會(huì)計(jì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的內(nèi)涵</p><p>　　衍生金融工具是建立在未來基礎(chǔ)之上的雙邊合同或付款交易協(xié)議。其價(jià)值取決于相關(guān)金融產(chǎn)品的價(jià)格及其價(jià)格的波動(dòng)，包括但不限于股票、債券、貨幣、利率、匯率和指數(shù)[6]。衍生金融工具的內(nèi)涵可以概括為：①衍生金融工具的價(jià)值會(huì)隨金融產(chǎn)品價(jià)格和付款條件的不同而變化。 ②對(duì)初始投資凈額或要求的初始投資凈額沒有做限制要求.③：對(duì)未來投資的凈額也無限制。衍生金融工具本身并不具有價(jià)值，但其價(jià)

60、格隨基本工具而改變。衍生金融工具種類繁多，設(shè)計(jì)靈活。根據(jù)他們的需要，公司可以制定不同的衍生金融工具品種。由于金融產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)處于持續(xù)變化的狀態(tài)，大多數(shù)情況下的買賣雙方并不完全了解導(dǎo)致市場(chǎng)變化的所有因素。杠桿作用也是衍生金融工具的最大特點(diǎn)。</p><p>　　最初設(shè)計(jì)衍生金融工具是為了規(guī)避風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。 避免風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是其最重要的功能。 在衍生金融工具特定的交易市場(chǎng)內(nèi)，有大量的交易者會(huì)根據(jù)收集到的信息去分析和預(yù)測(cè)價(jià)格動(dòng)態(tài)。 他們通

61、過公開拍賣達(dá)成協(xié)議，以確保價(jià)格在空間上的統(tǒng)一性以及在時(shí)間上的連貫性。 衍生交易的可出租性主要包括經(jīng)營(yíng)收入和衍生品經(jīng)紀(jì)商收入。</p><p>　　衍生金融工具會(huì)計(jì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是金融工具與會(huì)計(jì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的結(jié)合。因此它具有金融工具和會(huì)計(jì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的特征。也就是說，衍生金融工具會(huì)計(jì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)具有會(huì)計(jì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的客觀性、嚴(yán)重性、不確定性和不可控性等特征。同時(shí)它也具有衍生金融工具的高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、財(cái)務(wù)杠桿、不確定性和其他特征。</p><p&

62、gt;　　基于風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的衍生金融工具實(shí)證分析</p><p>　　樣本分析：本文隨機(jī)選取了上海、深圳等10家上市商業(yè)銀行。以2011年至2013年的年度數(shù)據(jù)為對(duì)象。然后在三年內(nèi)完成30個(gè)樣本數(shù)據(jù)的統(tǒng)計(jì)，并將它作為統(tǒng)計(jì)模型的原始數(shù)據(jù)。本文采用了一些常用的數(shù)據(jù)指標(biāo)，包括每股收益、不良貸款率、貸款撥備率、凈資產(chǎn)回報(bào)率、資本充足率等，這些數(shù)據(jù)可直接從證券交易所和上市商業(yè)銀行年度報(bào)告中的公司基本財(cái)務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)中獲取。但是一些與衍生金

63、融工具密切相關(guān)的財(cái)務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)和比率，例如衍生金融工具合約的價(jià)值、加權(quán)平均收益率風(fēng)險(xiǎn)資產(chǎn)的價(jià)值、運(yùn)營(yíng)利潤(rùn)率等需要進(jìn)行分類統(tǒng)計(jì)，還需要通過最近10家上市商業(yè)銀行年報(bào)中的數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行計(jì)算。在本文中，原始數(shù)據(jù)的對(duì)比和計(jì)算比率將使用Excel2007。采用SPSS16.0統(tǒng)計(jì)軟件進(jìn)行描述性統(tǒng)計(jì)分析并用回歸模型進(jìn)行檢驗(yàn)。</p><p>　　選擇和去除變量：選擇可反映列出的商業(yè)銀行盈利能力的常見財(cái)務(wù)比率指標(biāo)作為解釋變量，以衍生金融工

64、具相關(guān)的財(cái)務(wù)比率指標(biāo)作為解釋變量。通過置換統(tǒng)計(jì)模型中的四個(gè)解釋變量，用SPSS16.0軟件進(jìn)行統(tǒng)計(jì)分析。然后通過輸出結(jié)果來進(jìn)行有顯著性分析，以確定顯性著解釋變量是否會(huì)影響解釋變量。最后對(duì)最終結(jié)論進(jìn)行了操作性分析，得出了我國衍生金融工具現(xiàn)狀的結(jié)論、影響以及建議。</p><p>　　解釋變量：X1：衍生工具/總資產(chǎn)（％）; X2：ROE（％）; X3：風(fēng)險(xiǎn)加權(quán)資產(chǎn)收益率（％）; X4：不良貸款率（％）;</p

65、><p>　　變量解釋變量：Y1：營(yíng)業(yè)毛利（％）; Y2：資本充足率（％）; Y3：貸款撥備率（％）; Y4：每股收益（元/股）</p><p>　　描述性統(tǒng)計(jì)分析：從表1可以看出，X1（衍生金融工具的合同價(jià)值/總資產(chǎn)）的最大值為24.54，最小值為1.95，標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差為8.14333，從中很容易看出中國上市商業(yè)銀行持有的衍生金融工具比例存在較大差距和波動(dòng)性。 X2的偏斜度（ROE）表明其跨度不是

66、很大，但其波動(dòng)很大。不同上市商業(yè)銀行的凈資產(chǎn)收益率存在較大差異。 X3（風(fēng)險(xiǎn)加權(quán)資產(chǎn)的回報(bào)）的分布情況呈現(xiàn)右偏。從指標(biāo)中不難看出，上市商業(yè)銀行在利用投機(jī)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)資產(chǎn)時(shí)，其波動(dòng)率回報(bào)率不高。 X4表明上市商業(yè)銀行不良貸款差異不大，波動(dòng)幅度較小。 Y1（營(yíng)業(yè)利潤(rùn)率）表示利潤(rùn)率差異很大，波動(dòng)性也很大。當(dāng)偏度小于0時(shí)，其趨勢(shì)呈現(xiàn)左偏分布。 Y2（資本充足率）表明所有上市商業(yè)銀行已經(jīng)達(dá)到既定要求，波動(dòng)性很小。所以資本充足率是一個(gè)更穩(wěn)定的指標(biāo)。 Y3

67、（貸款撥備率）的波動(dòng)性不大。但每家上市商業(yè)銀行的跨度都比較大。因此，不良貸款管理存在一定差距。 Y4（EPS）顯示最小值為0.32，最大值為2.66，標(biāo)準(zhǔn)偏差為0.60201，偏度為1.301。整體波動(dòng)幅度不大，總體趨勢(shì)是右偏的，表明單個(gè)上市商業(yè)銀行的盈利能力和股票投資價(jià)值相對(duì)較低。</p><p>　　表一 商業(yè)銀行描述性統(tǒng)計(jì)</p><p>　　回歸分析: 第一個(gè)顯性方程是:<

68、;/p><p>　　從表2中，我們首先觀察擬合優(yōu)度R2是0.869，相對(duì)接近1.因此我們可以說初始線性回歸模型是可行的。 在本文中，當(dāng)我們測(cè)試顯著性分析時(shí)，我們采用α為0.05。首先，我們測(cè)試F.由于模型n中的樣本數(shù)是30，所以解釋變量數(shù)是4，從F到F的分布是（4 ，25）。 從統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)表中，我們可以得到（4,25）等于2.06。 從上表可以看出，F(xiàn)等于41.483，小于2.06，P為0，小于0.05。 因此線性回歸

69、線符合條件，回歸方程為：</p><p>　　表二 線性方程結(jié)構(gòu)的結(jié)果</p><p>　　在移除自變量X2之后，已經(jīng)提出了線性回歸模型。 結(jié)果如表3所示。X1（衍生工具/總資產(chǎn)）對(duì)Y1（營(yíng)業(yè)利潤(rùn)率）起到了積極的作用，但其重量比遠(yuǎn)低于X3（風(fēng)險(xiǎn)加權(quán)資產(chǎn)的回報(bào)率）。 X4（不良貸款率）越多，商業(yè)銀行的營(yíng)業(yè)利潤(rùn)率就越低。 模型中的系數(shù)是負(fù)數(shù)。 因此，該方程具有現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。 所以商業(yè)銀行總資產(chǎn)

70、中衍生金融工具的比例對(duì)營(yíng)業(yè)利潤(rùn)率有正向影響。 但影響可能不會(huì)很大。 由于每家上市商業(yè)銀行對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)資產(chǎn)都有嚴(yán)格的規(guī)定，因此從目前使用衍生金融工具的狀況來看，其對(duì)上市商業(yè)銀行營(yíng)業(yè)利潤(rùn)率不會(huì)產(chǎn)生實(shí)質(zhì)性影響。</p><p>　　表三 Y 1回歸方程式的結(jié)果</p><p>　　表四 Y2回歸方程的結(jié)果</p><p>　　從表4可以看出，對(duì)于Y2的線性

71、回歸失敗了，因?yàn)閺腦1得到的數(shù)據(jù)t = 0.227，小于臨界值= t0.025（25）= 2.06。 整個(gè)線性回歸方程不是很顯著。 所以它沒有統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)意義。 從結(jié)果中，我可以完全推斷出Y2（資本充足率）具有強(qiáng)制性。 每家上市商業(yè)銀行都應(yīng)該達(dá)到標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。 因此，無論X1的值是（衍生金融工具/總資產(chǎn)）多少，都不會(huì)影響金融規(guī)律。 X1（衍生品/總資產(chǎn)）的回歸模型是毫無意義的。</p><p>　　表四 Y3回歸方程

72、的結(jié)果</p><p>　　表五 Y4回歸方程的結(jié)果</p><p>　　從表4可以看出，只有來自X1和X3的t的絕對(duì)值分別為4.627和2.544，小于2.052。同時(shí)，X1和X3的值P分別為0.000和0.017，均小于0.05。因此，在最后一步中刪除變量是有效的。 X1（衍生工具/資產(chǎn)總額）對(duì)Y3（貸款撥備率）有相反的影響，即上市商業(yè)銀行持有的衍生金融工具的比例越大，Y3（

73、貸款撥備率）越小。與此同時(shí)，貸款撥備值將減少。所以該模型支持理論結(jié)果的現(xiàn)實(shí)。其次，X3（風(fēng)險(xiǎn)加權(quán)資產(chǎn)收益率）對(duì)Y3（貸款撥備率）產(chǎn)生積極影響。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)資產(chǎn)凈利潤(rùn)較高，貸款減值準(zhǔn)備的比例更大。這表明貸款規(guī)模減少了。由于其他風(fēng)險(xiǎn)資產(chǎn)的投資可以獲得更多的收益，且貸款撥備率也降低，自變量也具有現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。</p><p>　　從表5可以看出，Y4的線性回歸是失敗的，因?yàn)閿?shù)據(jù)X1（t）是0.124，小于臨界值（t0.025（25

74、）= 2.06）。 這在線性回歸方程中不是很顯著。 因此它沒有實(shí)際的統(tǒng)計(jì)意義。 我們不能斷定Y4與其他四個(gè)自變量沒有線性關(guān)系。 由于系數(shù)β1為0，初始回歸方程沒有意義。 根據(jù)回歸模型的結(jié)果，我可以完全地推斷出Y4（EPS）是由上市商業(yè)銀行和普通股的稅后利潤(rùn)決定。 而衍生金融工具可以影響分子量，但對(duì)上市商業(yè)銀行股票的影響不太直接。 因此，上市商業(yè)銀行是否持有多少X1（衍生品/總資產(chǎn)），影響不大。</p><p>　

75、　會(huì)計(jì)收入、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和披露</p><p>　　衍生金融工具的占比對(duì)運(yùn)營(yíng)管理利潤(rùn)率起到了積極的作用，為商業(yè)銀行帶來了利潤(rùn)回報(bào)。從收益的回歸結(jié)果來看，雖然衍生金融工具對(duì)收益的影響很微妙，但在其比例上呈上升的趨勢(shì)。</p><p>　　從貸款撥備率來看，衍生金融工具對(duì)商業(yè)銀行貸款減少有抑制作用。也就是說，使用衍生金融工具可以減少商業(yè)銀行的不良貸款，從而實(shí)現(xiàn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)回報(bào)、保值增值。衍生金融工具的發(fā)展具有

76、實(shí)際的經(jīng)濟(jì)意義。在一定程度上，使用衍生金融工具可以減少經(jīng)濟(jì)動(dòng)蕩，并為世界經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)定運(yùn)行提供一些保護(hù)。</p><p>　　建立定量分析的良好模型。</p><p>　　衍生金融工具的易變性是其復(fù)雜且難以控制的關(guān)鍵因素。因此，使用計(jì)算機(jī)技術(shù)建立定量分析模型是能更好地追蹤衍生金融工具變化的解決方案。為完善公司內(nèi)部風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制部門、降低經(jīng)營(yíng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，我們應(yīng)嚴(yán)格對(duì)衍生金融工具進(jìn)行授權(quán)審批和控制。規(guī)避其難以監(jiān)

77、管的任何非法操作，確保其內(nèi)部風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制部門的實(shí)時(shí)監(jiān)控并約束操作員的行為?；ゲ幌嗳莸穆毼粦?yīng)該彼此分開。對(duì)于內(nèi)部風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制部門的工作人員而言，應(yīng)該實(shí)施崗位輪換等一些預(yù)防措施。</p><p><b>　　結(jié)論</b></p><p>　　衍生金融工具的相關(guān)規(guī)則可能會(huì)由于實(shí)際市場(chǎng)的經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行狀況和投資者的交易需求而得到不斷的完善。因此服務(wù)于市場(chǎng)的衍生金融工具可能會(huì)受到外部經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境

78、的影響。本文通過選取上市商業(yè)銀行作為樣本并選擇其他影響商業(yè)銀行盈利和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的相關(guān)財(cái)務(wù)比率指標(biāo)，采用SPSS16.0軟件對(duì)其進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析。之后將投資者更加關(guān)心的財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)與主流的衍生金融工具聯(lián)系起來。通過對(duì)結(jié)果進(jìn)行描述性分析和回歸分析后，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)使用衍生金融工具可以降低商業(yè)銀行發(fā)生不良貸款的概率。最后實(shí)現(xiàn)對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的規(guī)避并提升其價(jià)值。在財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)告最終披露之后，觀察該模型的測(cè)試值能否達(dá)到臨界值標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，并對(duì)不同財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)進(jìn)行分類，從中可以看出衍生金融工具是

79、否能夠避免商業(yè)銀行的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)以及是否可以提升效益。</p><p><b>　　參考文獻(xiàn)</b></p><p>　　[1] Zhang Xiuyun. Research on Financial derivatives risk of accounting regulation [D].Hei Longjiang：Northeast Forestry Universit

80、y,2010.</p><p>　　[2] Liu Jing. Review of Chinese derivative financial instruments [J]..Journal of Shanghai Lixin accounting college,2005,（05）：25-28.</p><p>　　[3] Wang Qibo. The characteristics o

81、f the derivative financial instruments accounting standards development[J]. Journal of Shanxi university of finance and economics,2006,28(01)：125-127.</p><p>　　[4] Shan Rong. The disclosure of financial deri

82、vatives risk information：Based on the research analysis of the subprime crisis [J].China Business,2010,(01)：43-44.</p><p>　　[5] Guan Sujuan. The identification and control of Enterprise accounting risk [J].

83、China's collective economy,2010,（08）：149-151..</p><p>　　[6] Wu Lingling. The disclosure research on Derivative financial instrument risk [J]. Management & Technology of SME,2009,（08）：76-76.</p>

84、<p>　　[7] Li Changyan. A brief analysis of derivative financial instruments accounting treatment [J]. Friends of Accounting,2009,（03）：64-66.</p><p>　　[8] Zhang Tingting. The studies on derivative fina

85、ncial instruments accounting [D].Beijing：Capital University of Economics and Business,2010.</p><p>　　[9] Zhang Qingyi. The research on Accounting problems of derivative financial instrument risk [D].Liao Nin