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1、<p><b> 中英文翻譯</b></p><p> 2004中國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)仍會(huì)升溫</p><p> 房地產(chǎn)一直牽動(dòng)著中國(guó)人最敏感的神經(jīng)。在經(jīng)歷了幾年的持續(xù)高速增長(zhǎng)之后,今年它是否還將繼續(xù)走高?這是目前大家最關(guān)心的。27日,房地產(chǎn)界最權(quán)威的幾位專家聚集到了一塊,就今年的房地產(chǎn)走勢(shì)以及市場(chǎng)投資趨勢(shì)展開(kāi)了一番爭(zhēng)論。多數(shù)觀點(diǎn)是,今年我國(guó)的房地產(chǎn)還將持續(xù)保
2、持高增長(zhǎng)勢(shì)頭,房?jī)r(jià)會(huì)在可控范圍內(nèi)上升。 </p><p> “中央18號(hào)文件提出,房地產(chǎn)要保持快速、持續(xù)、健康發(fā)展勢(shì)頭的前提是在20—30%速度基礎(chǔ)上的發(fā)展。因此,目前我國(guó)的房地產(chǎn)業(yè)無(wú)論數(shù)量、規(guī)模、價(jià)格,基本處在一個(gè)正常的發(fā)展空間?!敝袊?guó)房地產(chǎn)業(yè)協(xié)會(huì)會(huì)長(zhǎng)楊慎說(shuō),今年還將繼續(xù)保持這種發(fā)展勢(shì)頭,房?jī)r(jià)會(huì)在可控范圍內(nèi)上升。</p><p> 原因是,首先國(guó)務(wù)院去年頒布的18號(hào)文件對(duì)房地產(chǎn)業(yè)在國(guó)
3、民生產(chǎn)總值中的地位作了肯定,稱之為支柱產(chǎn)業(yè)。只要今后大的政策不變,市場(chǎng)就不會(huì)有大起大落。最近國(guó)家相繼對(duì)鋼鐵、水利等行業(yè)作出調(diào)整,但沒(méi)有提及房地產(chǎn)業(yè),意味著國(guó)家會(huì)繼續(xù)持支持態(tài)度。 </p><p> 第二,目前大家普遍擔(dān)心國(guó)家關(guān)于土地政策的調(diào)控會(huì)否影響房地產(chǎn)發(fā)展。楊慎認(rèn)為,在一定時(shí)間和限度內(nèi)可能會(huì)有所影響,但總體影響不會(huì)太大。因?yàn)椋康禺a(chǎn)建設(shè)用地每年270萬(wàn)平方公里,僅占全國(guó)每年用地總量15.8%。而且國(guó)家目前也
4、沒(méi)有減少房地產(chǎn)用地的考慮。 </p><p> 第三,大家還擔(dān)心金融政策收緊1%,即收緊4000億元的貸款,也可能會(huì)對(duì)某些項(xiàng)目和地區(qū)產(chǎn)生影響,楊慎認(rèn)為總體影響也不會(huì)太大。因?yàn)槿珖?guó)的總額僅4000億,而每年的房地產(chǎn)業(yè)貸款為2萬(wàn)多億。且隨著我國(guó)入世后金融業(yè)逐步開(kāi)放,許多國(guó)外金融機(jī)構(gòu)開(kāi)始進(jìn)入,加上其他融資方式的增多,金融政策整改基本不會(huì)對(duì)房地產(chǎn)造成大的影響。 </p><p> 對(duì)此,建設(shè)部
5、房地產(chǎn)與住宅研究會(huì)副會(huì)長(zhǎng)張?jiān)顺窒嗤^點(diǎn)。他認(rèn)為,去年以來(lái),在房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)項(xiàng)目的土地、資金、營(yíng)銷(xiāo)策劃這三大要素中,我國(guó)相繼出臺(tái)了一些新政策,房地產(chǎn)業(yè)因此而面臨新形勢(shì),甚至還將有一些房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)面臨洗牌。然而,房地產(chǎn)業(yè)是個(gè)具有相當(dāng)吸引力的投資行業(yè),相信在今年以至于今后相當(dāng)長(zhǎng)一段時(shí)間,我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)仍會(huì)保持快速、持續(xù)發(fā)展。 </p><p> 樂(lè)觀之余,也需冷靜觀察,去年我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)實(shí)現(xiàn)了32.5%的增長(zhǎng)速度,相比較過(guò)去5年
6、平均增長(zhǎng)22%,去年的速度偏高了些。楊慎認(rèn)為,在全國(guó)百姓住房條件有很大改善的情況下,房地產(chǎn)發(fā)展應(yīng)該進(jìn)入持續(xù)、均衡、平穩(wěn)的階段,而不應(yīng)該再是跳躍式的發(fā)展,20%左右的速度屬于正常。 </p><p> 由于目前我國(guó)固定資產(chǎn)投資規(guī)模偏大,去年達(dá)到了5600億,造成能源、交通、電力等行業(yè)普遍升溫,中央現(xiàn)在正著手進(jìn)行適當(dāng)控制。房地產(chǎn)業(yè)投資占全國(guó)固定資產(chǎn)投資的20—23%,所以,房地產(chǎn)增長(zhǎng)也要服從于全國(guó)宏觀調(diào)控大局,增長(zhǎng)
7、速度應(yīng)該適度,這樣才能保持健康持續(xù)發(fā)展的勢(shì)頭。</p><p> 張?jiān)艘舱J(rèn)為,與國(guó)外房地產(chǎn)業(yè)相比,我國(guó)的投融資機(jī)構(gòu)、股東結(jié)構(gòu)還不夠健全,甚至存在比較嚴(yán)重的缺陷。預(yù)計(jì)在今后一段時(shí)期內(nèi),我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)在投資問(wèn)題、與投資緊密相關(guān)的融資渠道問(wèn)題以及股東結(jié)構(gòu)問(wèn)題上都會(huì)有不斷的創(chuàng)新,從而使我國(guó)的房地產(chǎn)業(yè)更加成熟更具有活力。</p><p> 2004 Chinese real estate mark
8、ets will still intensify</p><p> The real estate has been affecting Chinese's most sensitive nerve all the time . After the ones that have gone through for a few years have grown at top speed continuous
9、ly, will it still continue going high this year? This is that everybody cares about most at present. One, most authoritative several expert , circle of real estate , is it arrive one to assemble , launch some dispute on
10、real estate tendency and market investment trend of this year. Most views are, the real estate of our country w</p><p> "Central File No. 18 proposes , it is the development on the basis of 20-30% of t
11、he speeds that the real estate should keep the prerequisite of fast , sustaining , health growth momentum. So at present the real estate of our country no matter quantity , scale , price, in a normal development space ba
12、sically. "President, real estate business association of Chinese, Yang careful to say , continue keeping this kind of growth momentum yet this year, the room rate will rise in the controllable range.</p><
13、p> Reason, File No. 18 that the State Council issue last year at first act as to real estate status of gross national product definite, call it the pillar industry. So long as great policy will not change in the futu
14、re, the market will not have big rise and big fall . Countries make adjustment to the trades , such as steel , water conservancy ,etc. in succession recently, but has not mentioned the real estate , mean that the country
15、 will continue holding the attitude of supporting. </p><p> Second, everybody is generally afraid at present that the regulation and control about the land policy of the country will influence the real esta
16、te to develop. Yang careful to think may influence to some extent within certain time and limit , but overall to it influences to be can too heavy. Because the construction land of real estate is 2,700,000 sq. km. every
17、year, only accounts for 15.8% of total amount in the national annual area. And the country has not reduced the land used for considera</p><p> Third, everybody still worries about the financial policy and t
18、ightens up 1%, namely tighten up the loan of 400 billion yuan, may exert an influence on some projects and areas too, Yang thinks carefully that it will not too big either to influence overallly. Because the total value
19、of the whole country is only 400 billion, and the annual real estate grants the loan as more than 20,000 hundred million. And financial circles open progressively after entering the WTO with our country, a lot of fore<
20、;/p><p> As to this, Ministry of Construction real estate and house research association end , Zhang Yuan of deputy chairman , hold the same view. He thinks , since last year, in land , fund , this three major
21、 key elements of marketing plan of the development item of the real estate, our country has issued some new policies in succession, the real estate faces the new situation because of this, face shuffling some real estate
22、 enterprises even. But real estate pieces of with quite appeal investment trade,</p><p> After the optimism, need to observe calmly too, the real estate of our country realized 32.5% of the growth rate last
23、 year, comparing the past 5 and increasing at an annual average of 22%, the speed last year was a bit on the high more side. Yang thinks carefully , in a situation that the national conditions of the house of common peop
24、le have very big improvement, real estate development should enter lasting , balanced , steady stage , but should not be the development of the jumping type again,</p><p> Because the investment scale of fi
25、xed assets of our country is partial and great at present, up to 560 billion last year, cause energy , traffic , electricity ,etc. trade intensify generally , is it carry on proper to control to set about now while being
26、 central. The real estate accounts for 20-23% of the national investment in fixed assets making the investment , so, the real estate should submit to the overall situation of national macro adjustments and controls while
27、 increasing, the growth ra</p><p> Zhang Yuan Yui end think compared with foreign real estate, investment and financing organization of our country,, shareholder structure sound enough too, more serious def
28、ect even exists. It is estimated within one period in the future, the real estate of our country will all have constant innovation on question of investment , the financing channel question correlated with investing in c
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