外文翻譯---科索沃農(nóng)業(yè)的比較優(yōu)勢分析

1、<p><b>　　中文2978字</b></p><p>　　本科畢業(yè)論文外文翻譯</p><p>　　外文題目：A Comparative Advantage Analysis of Kosovan Agriculture </p><p>　　出 處：P

2、ost-Communist Economies, Vol. 15, No. 3, September, 2003 </p><p>　　作 者： John Lingard </p><p><b>

3、;　　原 文：</b></p><p>　　A Comparative Advantage Analysis of Kosovan </p><p>　　Agriculture</p><p><b>　　Abstract</b></p><p>　　Following the 1999 ethnic c

4、onflict in Kosova between Serbs and Kosovar Albanians,the UN has been promoting agricultural and rural recovery in a war-torn, divided and vandalised country. A pillar of this effort is to provide loans to farmers and ag

5、ri-businesses to re-establish agricultural production so as to encourage moves towards reconciliation and a peaceful future. Early loans were advanced to uncompetitive sectors like wine which had no realistic chance of m

6、aking any repayments. A study was</p><p>　　Credit should only be advanced to sectors in which Kosova has potential competitiveness in terms of its trade parity prices. It is shown that, contrary to common be

7、lief, domestic wheat production is competitive (Table 3) and other sectors with potential to substitute for imports include the milk industry and potato production, but Kosova has few real opportunities to export to comp

8、etitive, international markets.</p><p>　　There is a shortage of information on agricultural production, costs and prices, food consumption patterns and international trade in agricultural and food products i

9、n Kosova. A statistical information system is being set up to improve availability, reliability and timeliness of agricultural statistics but up-to-date information to assess comparative advantages and international trad

10、e competitiveness is in short supply.</p><p>　　Historically Kosova was the poorest province of Yugoslavia. In 1995 its GDP was less than $400 per capita, at which time the value of primary agricultural produ

11、ction was $213 million, 35% of GDP when food processing and forestry are included. Kosova has 400,000 ha of agricultural land, 85% in the private sector, 10% in agricultural ‘kombinats’ and a small amount in agricultural

12、 co-operatives. Some 60% of the population live in rural areas although only 15% are solely dependent on farming for the</p><p>　　Competitiveness</p><p>　　There are many definitions and measures

13、 of competitiveness, and no single measure has gained universal acceptance. Some commonly used measures are balance of payments effects, market shares, costs of production and employment creation. The EU adopted a defini

14、tion of competitiveness as the ability of a country to increase its share of domestic and export markets where a country has a comparative advantage in a product which it can produce at a lower opportunity cost than othe

15、r countries (European</p><p>　　To maximise economic welfare for Kosovar society, prices should be based on those available at its international borders, that is, the trade parity prices—import parity prices

16、in the case of sectors for which Kosova imports (world prices plus transport charges) and export parity prices in the case of export sectors (world prices minus transport charges). These prices represent the economic val

17、ue or opportunity cost of domestically produced goods within Kosova. Competitiveness is determined by a </p><p>　　? specialise in (and trade in/export) those goods whose production uses the country’s most ab

18、undant resources;</p><p>　　? import those goods whose production involves its relatively more scarce resources.</p><p>　　Kosova is a small, land-locked country with a limited domestic market wit

19、hin which it will be difficult to realise economies of scale. It has difficult, expensive internal and international transport routes which are a serious impediment to exports but offer protection to the domestic market.

20、</p><p>　　Agricultural Resources</p><p><b>　　Labour</b></p><p>　　The agricultural population is 1 million people or 100,000–150,000 farm households out of a total popula

21、tion of 2 million. In 1997 the active population engaged in agriculture accounted for 50% of the total active population and 70% of the total labour force if upstream and downstream linkages are included. There is a cons

22、iderable number of part-time, subsistence farmers loosely engaged in markets for inputs and farm output. Household food security is their priority, selling and marketing surplu</p><p><b>　　Land</b&g

23、t;</p><p>　　Kosova has an area of 1.1 million hectares, of which 430,000 ha are forested (39%) and 577,000 ha are classified as agricultural land (52%). Of the latter, 180,000 ha (31%) are pastures and 400,0

24、00 ha (69%) are cultivable. Historically the main crops grown were wheat, maize, fodder crops, vegetables and barley along with small orchards and vineyards. Some 85% of the agricultural land is privately owned, includin

25、g 96% of cultivable land, 30% of pastures and 38% of forested land. Agricultural co-o</p><p>　　Average private land holdings per family are about 3.2 ha, including 2.4 ha of arable land, inefficiently fragme

26、nted into up to six plots. The typical subsistence farmer grows 1 ha of wheat and a similar area of maize in rotation. More than a quarter of the cultivable area (106,000 ha) was under irrigation, which led to the develo

27、pment of intensive cropping systems in the most fertile plains, but much irrigation is now unusable. </p><p>　　Livestock production accounted for 50% of the value of agricultural production and in 1997 liv

28、estock numbers comprised 420,000 cattle, 365,000 sheep, 69,000 pigs, 27,000 goats and 4.5 million head of poultry. During the conflict most livestock was lost, stolen or killed and livestock numbers fell by over 50% to a

29、 total of 187,000 cow equivalents. The current total is 243,000 cow equivalents, indicating a 30% recovery. In addition there are 50,000 pigs largely within Serb enclaves and 700,000 lay</p><p>　　There is no

30、t a transparent, well-functioning land market with official, legal recording of land transactions. A rudimentary market is at work with land transactions taking place, and leasing and renting of private land is possible.

31、 The rent depends on land quality, irrigation facilities and type of crop planted. Annual rents were DM 50–150 per ha for wheat land and between DM 400 and DM 700 per ha for vegetable growing land with irrigation. An ope

32、n and active land market is essential if Kosova i</p><p>　　Productivity</p><p>　　Crop and livestock yields in Kosova are low. Average wheat yields of 3 tonnes per ha and milk yields of 1300 litr

33、es per cow compare unfavourably with farms in Western Europe of 8 tonnes per ha and 6000 litres of milk per cow. Croatia has an average wheat yield of 4.3 tonnes per ha, the Czech Republic 4.9 tonnes per ha. In 2001 Pola

34、nd had an average milk yield of 3800 litres per cow, Hungary 5500 litres.</p><p>　　Fertiliser usage is low with application rates of about 45 kg of the nutrients N, P and K per ha in contrast to 200 kg of nu

35、trients per ha in Western Europe.</p><p>　　Productivity fell in the 1990s due to Yugoslav government policy failures and years of neglect brought about by market distortions and socialist planning. High leve

36、ls of trade protection, input subsidies, subsidised credit, procurement policies of state ‘a(chǎn)grokombinats’ and food price controls were common throughout Central and Eastern Europe at that time and resulted in large econo

37、mic transfers between farmers, food consumers and taxpayers (Ivanova et al., 1995).</p><p>　　During the 1990s parallel private sector initiatives were introduced by Kosovar Albanians to provide a range of ag

38、ricultural services (food processing, input and mechanisation supply, veterinary services etc). Government policies were discriminating against them and denying ethnic groups and privately owned farms access to inputs. D

39、eclining input use can be linked to exclusion of Kosovar Albanians from co-operatives and the use of trade policy to restrict supply and raise prices of farm inputs. </p><p>　　Comparative Advantage</p>

40、<p>　　The Development Programme for Agriculture in Kosova has the objectives</p><p>　　(i) to recapture those parts of the domestic food market in which Kosova has a comparative advantage;</p>&

41、lt;p>　　(ii) to re-establish a viable basis for resumption of regional agricultural exports.</p><p>　　Kosova was traditionally a net importer of food and agricultural products such as wheat. While part of

42、the agricultural area is fertile and suited to production of grains and industrial crops, it was thought unlikely to have a comparative advantage in production of high-volume, low-value commodities. Low cereal yields, ca

43、used by low input use, mean that Kosova is unlikely to be export-competitive in cereals production. Production should be limited to servicing the domestic market and ensuring fo</p><p>　　Within agriculture,

44、comparative advantage is likely to be found in labour-intensive production activities such as vegetables and fruit, and in livestock production, particularly ruminant-based meat and milk production. Kosova has an abundan

45、ce of cheap labour relatively and should aim to specialise in labour-intensive production.</p><p>　　Before 1989 Kosova was a net exporter of fruit and vegetables, particularly to other republics of the Socia

46、list Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. Kosova has pasture and forage resources with little alternative use, a moderate continental climate and these with its low-cost labour provide a base for competitive, low-cost, forage

47、-based livestock production. However, efficiency and productivity must rise considerably if Kosova is to become globally competitive and meet international quality and food </p><p><b>　　譯 文：</b>

48、;</p><p>　　科索沃農(nóng)業(yè)的比較優(yōu)勢分析</p><p><b>　　摘要</b></p><p>　　1999年科索沃的塞爾維亞和阿爾巴尼亞存在民族沖突，聯(lián)合國已經(jīng)在遭受戰(zhàn)爭破壞和被劃分的國家發(fā)展農(nóng)業(yè)和恢復(fù)農(nóng)村經(jīng)濟(jì)建設(shè)。努力的關(guān)鍵是給農(nóng)民提供貸款和發(fā)展農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)來重建農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)，以鼓勵農(nóng)民取得和解，有一個和平的未來。沒有競爭力的部門獲得早

49、期貸款，就像葡萄酒部門，但沒有現(xiàn)實(shí)的機(jī)會作任何償還。2002年研究表明，評估各種農(nóng)業(yè)部門的競爭力迅速成為未來貸款項(xiàng)目。這篇文章記錄了這項(xiàng)研究和結(jié)果。</p><p>　　就貿(mào)易同等價格而言，信用應(yīng)該出現(xiàn)在科索沃有競爭潛力的部門。結(jié)果表明，與一般看法相反，國內(nèi)的小麥生產(chǎn)具有競爭力，其它部門有發(fā)展?jié)摿Φ倪M(jìn)口替代品包括乳業(yè)和薯類產(chǎn)品，但是科索沃沒有真正出口到有競爭力的國際市場的機(jī)會。</p><p&

50、gt;　　科索沃在農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)，成本和價格，食品消費(fèi)類型，農(nóng)業(yè)的國際貿(mào)易和食品生產(chǎn)上缺少相關(guān)信息。提高農(nóng)業(yè)統(tǒng)計(jì)的實(shí)用性，可靠性和及時性的信息統(tǒng)計(jì)系統(tǒng)已經(jīng)建立，但是評價比較優(yōu)勢和國際貿(mào)易競爭力的最新消息卻很少。</p><p>　　從歷史觀點(diǎn)來看，科索沃是南斯拉夫最窮的省。1995年，他的人均GDP不足400美元，在此期間其農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)價值為2.13億美元，食品加工和林業(yè)占GDP的35%?？扑魑钟?0萬公頃的農(nóng)業(yè)用地，85

51、%是私有的，10%為公有，少量為農(nóng)村合作社所有。有60%的人口生活在農(nóng)村地區(qū)，只有15%是完全依靠耕作維持生計(jì)。親戚和國外朋友的匯款為支撐家庭收入做出重大貢獻(xiàn)。估計(jì)每月有1.5億美元。</p><p><b>　?。ㄒ唬└偁幜?lt;/b></p><p>　　有很多競爭力的定義和測量，沒有一種單一的測量被普遍接受。一些常用的測量是平衡支付效應(yīng)，市場份額，生產(chǎn)成本和就業(yè)創(chuàng)造

52、。歐盟采用的競爭力定義是一個國家增加其國內(nèi)份額和出口市場的能力，當(dāng)一個國家比其他國家以較低的機(jī)會成本生產(chǎn)，這個國家在生產(chǎn)產(chǎn)品上具有比較優(yōu)勢（歐洲委員會，1993）。我們把競爭力定義為科索沃農(nóng)民/生產(chǎn)者或科索沃農(nóng)業(yè)部門的能力，比如牛奶或葡萄酒，在價格上幸存和維持市場份額取決于國際貿(mào)易。</p><p>　　為了使科索沃社會的福利最大化，價格制定應(yīng)該根據(jù)在其國界的可用性，也就是說，貿(mào)易同等價格——科索沃進(jìn)口部門進(jìn)口同

53、等價格（世界農(nóng)產(chǎn)品價格加上運(yùn)費(fèi)），出口部門出口同等價格（世界農(nóng)產(chǎn)品價格減去運(yùn)費(fèi)）。這些價格代表科索沃經(jīng)濟(jì)價格或國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)商品的機(jī)會成本。競爭力由一系列因素決定，但是潛在因素是一個國家的自然資源稟賦，資源混合和技術(shù)。國際貿(mào)易理論和比較優(yōu)勢理論以國家不同自然資源稟賦為基礎(chǔ)。這意味著國家應(yīng)該</p><p>　　專門研究（貿(mào)易或出口）使用國家最豐富的資源生產(chǎn)商品。</p><p>　　進(jìn)口利用其相

54、對稀缺資源生產(chǎn)的商品。</p><p>　　科索沃是個小的內(nèi)陸國家，國內(nèi)市場有限，難以實(shí)現(xiàn)規(guī)模經(jīng)濟(jì)。 困難、昂貴的國內(nèi)、國際運(yùn)輸是出口的一個嚴(yán)重障礙，但是能保護(hù)國內(nèi)市場。</p><p><b>　?。ǘ┺r(nóng)業(yè)資源</b></p><p><b>　　1、勞動力</b></p><p>　　農(nóng)業(yè)人口

55、有一百萬，兩百萬人口中有十萬到十五萬是農(nóng)戶，1997年，如果包括上游和下游間的聯(lián)系，從事農(nóng)業(yè)的人口占總?cè)丝诘?0%，占總勞動力的70%。</p><p>　　有相當(dāng)多靠兼職為生的農(nóng)民松散地從事市場投入和農(nóng)業(yè)產(chǎn)出。家庭食品安全是他們優(yōu)先考慮的問題，銷售和營銷產(chǎn)能過剩是次要考慮的問題。和中歐和東歐的其他地方一樣，在過渡和沖突時期，從事農(nóng)業(yè)的人口比例急劇上升，國有產(chǎn)業(yè)和社會擁有的企業(yè)中的雇員失去他們的工作，轉(zhuǎn)向兼職和自

56、給農(nóng)業(yè)來滿足他們的家庭食品安全需求（科索沃和林加德，2002）。這很難與基于市場的生存部門連接，農(nóng)業(yè)政策工具和其他農(nóng)業(yè)政策是必須的。</p><p><b>　　2、土地</b></p><p>　　科索沃面積達(dá)110萬公頃，43萬公頃是森林（占39%），57.7萬公頃是農(nóng)業(yè)用地（占52%）。在后者中18萬公頃（31%）是草地，40萬（69%）是可耕地。從歷史上來說，

57、主要農(nóng)作物是小麥，玉米，飼料作物，蔬菜，大麥和小果園，葡萄園。85%的農(nóng)業(yè)用地是私有的，包括96%的可耕地，30%的草地和38%的林地。農(nóng)業(yè)合作社和社會公有控制剩余的農(nóng)業(yè)土地。</p><p>　　每個家庭有大約3.2公頃的私有土地，包括2.4公頃的可耕地，無效率地分裂成六小塊。典型的糊口農(nóng)民種1公頃的小麥，輪流種相似面積的玉米。超過四分之一的可耕地(106000公頃)在灌溉中，使最肥沃的平原的精心耕作系統(tǒng)得到發(fā)

58、展，但是很多的灌溉不可用。</p><p>　　畜牧生產(chǎn)占農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)值的50%，1997年，牲畜數(shù)目包括42萬頭牛，36.5萬頭羊，6.9萬頭豬，2.7萬頭山羊和450萬頭家畜。在戰(zhàn)爭時期，大多數(shù)牲畜丟失，被偷或被殺，牲畜數(shù)目降到50%以上，一共才18.7萬頭牛。目前共有24.3萬頭牛，表明有30%得到恢復(fù)。除此之外，有5萬頭屬于聚居的塞爾維亞人的豬和70萬只產(chǎn)蛋的家畜。改進(jìn)動物的遺傳潛力，并提供一個“一次換所有”

59、的機(jī)遇來提高動物的生產(chǎn)力是亟待優(yōu)先考慮的事情。</p><p>　　沒有一個透明，土地市場運(yùn)作良好的官方，合法記錄的土地交易。一個初步的市場與土地發(fā)生交易，租賃和租用私人土地是可能的。租賃取決于土地的質(zhì)量，灌溉設(shè)施和種植作物的類型。年租金是50-150馬克的每公頃小麥的土地，每公頃蔬菜種植灌溉土地在400馬克和700馬克之間。一個開放和現(xiàn)行的土地市場是至關(guān)重要的，如果科索沃通過土地整理使自給農(nóng)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)向商品化農(nóng)業(yè)。根

60、據(jù)國際肥料發(fā)展有限公司（IFDC）的調(diào)查，每公頃10萬馬克的土地價格不切實(shí)際地高于農(nóng)業(yè)盈利水平(?？怂? 2001)。國外匯款和土地投資刺激了對土地的需求，成為非農(nóng)業(yè)的原因。每年農(nóng)業(yè)利潤總額少于每公頃1500馬克是不能維持如此高的土地價格。</p><p><b>　?。ㄈ┥a(chǎn)力</b></p><p>　　科索沃的作物和牲畜的產(chǎn)量是低的。平均每公頃3公噸的小麥產(chǎn)量

61、和每頭奶牛1300升的產(chǎn)奶量是不能和西歐每公頃8公噸的小麥產(chǎn)量和每頭奶牛6000升的產(chǎn)奶量相比的?？肆_地亞有每公頃4.3公噸的小麥產(chǎn)量，捷克共和國是每公頃4.9公噸。2001年，波蘭每頭奶牛產(chǎn)奶量是3800升，匈牙利是5500升?；适褂寐瘦^低，每公頃45千克的氮、磷和鉀與西歐每公頃2000千克形成對比。</p><p>　　20世紀(jì)90年代生產(chǎn)力的下降歸因于南斯拉夫政府政策的失敗，因?yàn)槭袌雠で蜕鐣髁x計(jì)劃經(jīng)濟(jì)

62、對它的忽視。那個時候，高水平的貿(mào)易保護(hù)，投入補(bǔ)貼，信用補(bǔ)貼，國家的采購政策和食品價格管控措施在中歐和東歐是很常見的，在農(nóng)民、食品消費(fèi)者和納稅人間造成巨大的經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)移（伊萬諾瓦等，1995）。</p><p>　　在20世紀(jì)90年代，科索沃的阿爾巴尼亞人引進(jìn)的平行私營部門的主動權(quán)為農(nóng)業(yè)提供一系列的服務(wù)（食品加工，投入和機(jī)械化供應(yīng)，獸醫(yī)服務(wù)等）。政府政策歧視他們，否認(rèn)族群和私有農(nóng)場的投入。投入使用的下降可以與科索沃的阿

63、爾巴尼亞人對合作社、使用貿(mào)易政策限制供應(yīng)和提高農(nóng)業(yè)投入的排斥相聯(lián)系。這個團(tuán)體的私有化和以市場為基礎(chǔ)的主動權(quán)在沖突前取得發(fā)展，為國際捐贈組織發(fā)起恢復(fù)農(nóng)村經(jīng)濟(jì)提供了機(jī)會。</p><p><b>　?。ㄋ模┍容^優(yōu)勢</b></p><p>　　科索沃發(fā)展農(nóng)業(yè)計(jì)劃的目標(biāo)</p><p>　?。?）重新奪回科索沃有比較優(yōu)勢的部分國內(nèi)食品市場；</

64、p><p>　?。?）重新建立一個以恢復(fù)區(qū)域農(nóng)產(chǎn)品出口為基礎(chǔ)的可行計(jì)劃。</p><p>　　科索沃是一個傳統(tǒng)上食品凈進(jìn)口的國家，農(nóng)產(chǎn)品有小麥。然而部分農(nóng)業(yè)土地肥沃，適合于生產(chǎn)糧食和經(jīng)濟(jì)作物，人們認(rèn)為它不可能在生產(chǎn)大量、低值易耗商品上有比較優(yōu)勢。低投入使用導(dǎo)致谷類作物收成低，意味著科索沃在谷物食品生產(chǎn)上沒有出口優(yōu)勢。生產(chǎn)必須限制于服務(wù)國內(nèi)市場，保障我國農(nóng)村地區(qū)食品安全。</p>

65、<p>　　農(nóng)業(yè)上的比較優(yōu)勢很可能在勞動密集型生產(chǎn)活動中發(fā)現(xiàn)，比如蔬菜和水果，畜牧業(yè)生產(chǎn)過程，尤其是反謅動物的肉和奶產(chǎn)量。科索沃有大量相對廉價的勞動力，目標(biāo)應(yīng)該是專門從事勞動密集型生產(chǎn)。1989年以前，科索沃是一個水果和蔬菜都凈進(jìn)口的國家，尤其是南斯拉夫其他國家社會主義聯(lián)邦共和國?？扑魑钟袔缀鯖]什么用的牧草和飼料資源和適度的大陸性氣候，這些以其低成本的勞動力提供了競爭基礎(chǔ)，低成本、以飼料為基礎(chǔ)的畜牧生產(chǎn)。然而，效率和生產(chǎn)力必須