經(jīng)濟(jì)周期、博弈論、外文文獻(xiàn)及翻譯

1、<p><b>　　西安建筑科技大學(xué)</b></p><p>　　畢業(yè)設(shè)計(jì)(論文)外文資料翻譯</p><p>　　院（系）： 管理學(xué)院 </p><p>　　專 　業(yè)： 公共事業(yè)管理 </p><p>　　姓 名：

2、 鄭 凱 </p><p>　　學(xué) 號(hào)： 091130126 </p><p>　　外文出處：Journal of Evolutionary Econom- -ics,2004,Vol.14(2) </p><p>　　Book review: Game theory and int

3、erdependence. Game Theory and its Applications in the Social and Biological Sciences, Andrew M. Colman, Oxford: Butterworth‐Heinemann, 1995. 375 pp, ISBN 0‐7506‐2369‐1.</p><p>　　附 件： 1.外文資料翻譯譯文；2.外文原文 <

4、;/p><p>　　完成日期： 2013年4 月10日 </p><p>　　1.Business cycle</p><p>　　the definition of the economic cycle, economic cycle: also called the business cycle, business cycles, econo

5、mic cycle, it is to point to in the operation of the economic cyclical economic expansion and contraction of alternate cycles of a phenomenon. Is the national total output, total revenue and total employment fluctuations

6、.</p><p>　　Under the condition of market economy, entrepreneurs are increasingly concerned about the economy, namely "economic climate change". The stand or fall of an enterprise production and bus

7、iness operation conditions, is influenced by its internal conditions, and by the external macroeconomic environment and market environment. , an enterprise is unable to determine its external environment, but can through

8、 the internal conditions to improve, to actively adapt to the change of the external environme</p><p>　　schumpeter and based on "innovation theory", in the economic cycle and relevant books and per

9、iodicals, presented his theory of economic cycle. By diffusion, a kind of innovation, he argues, to stimulate large-scale investment, caused the upsurge, once investment opportunities disappear, then into a recession. Be

10、cause the introduction of innovation is not continuous steady, but the high low, thus produce the economic cycle. Innovation in the history of the differ in thousands ways, its influence </p><p>　　Schumpeter

11、 also in "capitalism, socialism and democracy," a book attacked, labor value theory of Marx's historical materialism and surplus value theory. He put forward a capitalism will automatic transition to the &q

12、uot;socialist" argument. He asserted: once the economy progress makes all of non-life and automated, without human action, innovation itself down to a routine things, weak function, then entrepreneurs for innovation

13、, investment opportunities are disappearing and become useless, "capitalis</p><p>　　Current have been harsher about schumpeter's theory of the influence of the western academia have greater extensio

14、n, especially due to the progress of science and technology, schumpeter's "innovation theory" by western scholars more attention.</p><p><b>　　經(jīng)濟(jì)周期理論</b></p><p>　　經(jīng)濟(jì)周期的定

15、義　經(jīng)濟(jì)周期(Business cycle)：也稱商業(yè)周期、商業(yè)循環(huán)、景氣循環(huán)， 它是指經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行中周期性出現(xiàn)的經(jīng)濟(jì)擴(kuò)張與經(jīng)濟(jì)緊縮交替更迭、循環(huán)往復(fù)的一種現(xiàn)象。是國(guó)民總產(chǎn)出、總收入和總就業(yè)的波動(dòng)。 </p><p>　　在市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)條件下，企業(yè)家們?cè)絹碓蕉嗟仃P(guān)心經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)，也就是 “經(jīng)濟(jì)大氣候”的變化。一個(gè)企業(yè)生產(chǎn)經(jīng)營(yíng)狀況的好壞，既受其內(nèi)部條件的影響，又受其外部宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境和市場(chǎng)環(huán)境的影響。一個(gè)企業(yè)，無力決定它的外部環(huán)

16、境，但可以通過內(nèi)部條件的改善，來積極適應(yīng)外部環(huán)境的變化，充分利用外部環(huán)境，并在一定范圍內(nèi)，改變自己的小環(huán)境，以增強(qiáng)自身活力，擴(kuò)大市場(chǎng)占有率。因此，作為企業(yè)家對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)周期波動(dòng)必須了解、把握，并能制訂相應(yīng)的對(duì)策來適應(yīng)周期的波動(dòng)，否則將在波動(dòng)中喪失生機(jī)。</p><p>　　熊彼特又以“創(chuàng)新理論”為依據(jù)，在《經(jīng)濟(jì)周期》及有關(guān)書刊中，提出了他的經(jīng)濟(jì)周期理論。他認(rèn)為，一種創(chuàng)新通過擴(kuò)散，刺激大規(guī)模的投資，引起了高漲，一旦投資機(jī)

17、會(huì)消失，便轉(zhuǎn)入了衰退。由于創(chuàng)新的引進(jìn)不是連續(xù)平穩(wěn)的，而是時(shí)高時(shí)低的，這樣就產(chǎn)生了經(jīng)濟(jì)周期。歷史上的創(chuàng)新千差萬別，對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的影響也大小不同，因而周期有長(zhǎng)有短。他綜合了前人的論點(diǎn)，提出在資本主義歷史發(fā)展過程中同時(shí)存在著三種周期的主張：①歷時(shí)50～60年的經(jīng)濟(jì)長(zhǎng)周期或長(zhǎng)波，又稱“康德拉季耶夫周期”;②通常所說的平均9～10年的資本主義經(jīng)濟(jì)周期，又稱“朱格拉周期”；③平均40個(gè)月的所謂短周期或短波，又稱“基欽周期”。他宣稱，這幾種周期并存而且

18、互相交織的情況進(jìn)一步證明了他的“創(chuàng)新理論”的正確性。</p><p>　　熊彼特還在《資本主義、社會(huì)主義和民主主義》一書中攻擊了馬克思的歷史唯物主義、勞動(dòng)價(jià)值論和剩余價(jià)值論。他提出了資本主義將自動(dòng)過渡到“社會(huì)主義”的論點(diǎn)。他斷言：一旦經(jīng)濟(jì)進(jìn)步使一切都非人身化和自動(dòng)化了，無需人的作用了，創(chuàng)新本身降為例行事物了，那時(shí)企業(yè)家就因創(chuàng)新職能日弱、投資機(jī)會(huì)日漸消失而變得無用，“資本主義就將活不下去”，并將自動(dòng)地進(jìn)入“社會(huì)主義

19、”。然而熊彼特所謂的“社會(huì)主義”，以及作為社會(huì)主義標(biāo)志的“公有”和“公營(yíng)”，實(shí)際上仍然是資產(chǎn)階級(jí)的國(guó)有化和國(guó)營(yíng)，根本沒有改變或觸動(dòng)資本主義所有制。</p><p>　　當(dāng)前熊彼特學(xué)說在西方學(xué)術(shù)界的影響有更大的擴(kuò)展，特別是由于科學(xué)技術(shù)的進(jìn)步，熊彼特的“創(chuàng)新理論”受到西方更多學(xué)者的重視。</p><p>　　2.Game theory</p><p>　　Game th

20、eory is two people with each other in equal match-up strategy transform their confrontation strategy, achieve the goal of victory. Ancient existing game theory thought, sun tzu's the art of ancient China is not just

21、a military work, and is the earliest writing on game theory. Game theory original research outcome of chess, bridge, gambling problems, grasp of game situation only on experience, there is no theoretical development.<

22、/p><p>　　(1)Policy makers: in the game first to make a decision of the party, this party is often based on their own feelings, experience, and surface state priority one directional action.</p><p>

23、　　(2) antagonist: action lags in the games, two games of the people, and policymakers should basic negative decision, and his action is lagging, the default, passive, but in the end." His weaknesses may depend on th

24、e decision strategy choice, take up the space features, so confrontation is the only way of dominant, actually is the periodic end of the leader behavior.</p><p>　　(3) bureau middleman (players) : in a compe

25、tition or game, each have the decision-making power of the participants to be a player. There are only two players of game is called "two people game", and more than two players of game called "multiplayer

26、 game."</p><p>　　(4) strategies (strategies) : a game in the game, each player has a selection of practical complete action plan, the plan is not a stage of action, but to guide the whole a plan of acti

27、on, a player a viable from beginning to end global planning is a plan of action, called a device to this player. If there are limited in a game in the middle game strategy, it is called a "limited game", otherw

28、ise known as the "game".</p><p>　　(5) and (payoffs) : a game when the game ends as the result of the gain and loss. Each player in the game at the end of the game of the gain and loss, not only rel

29、ated to the agency in its chosen strategy, and with the global human take a set of strategies. So, a game at the end of the game each player "and" all the players are a set of fixed strategy function, often ref

30、erred to as payment (payoff) functions.</p><p>　　(6) order (orders) : each game party decisions have successively, and a game party will be decision option more than once, and in order; Other elements of the

31、 same order, the game is different.</p><p>　　(7) game comes to equilibrium, equilibrium is the balance point, in economics, the equilibrium meaning related to the amount in a stable value. In supply and dema

32、nd, market if a commodity at a certain price, want to buy this goods this price can buy per person, per person and want to sell to sell, at this point we can say, the goods has reached the equilibrium of supply and deman

33、d. So-called Nash equilibrium, it is a stable game result.</p><p>　　Nash Equilibrium (Nash Equilibrium) : in a strategy combination, all of the participants faced such a situation, when others don't chan

34、ge strategy, his strategy is the best. That is to say, if he change the strategy at this time his income would be reduced. On the Nash equilibrium, each rational participants will not have the urge to change tactics alon

35、e. Nash equilibrium existence proof is the premise of the concept of "accidentally" game equilibrium. Even so-called "equilibrium" is in A zero-s</p><p>　　Accidentally in this way, "

36、equilibrium" defined as: a pair of strategies a * (belong to the policy set a) and strategy b * (belong to the policy set b) accidentally called equilibrium, for any strategy and strategy (belong to the policy set a

37、) b (belong to the policy set b), there are: (a, b *) even the acuities were to (a *, b *) or greater to (a *, b).</p><p>　　To non-zero-sum also has the following definition: a strategy for a * (belong to th

38、e policy set a) and strategy b * (belong to the policy set b) accidentally called non-zero-sum equilibrium, for any strategy and strategy (belong to the policy set a) b (belong to the policy set b), there are: the game i

39、n a pair (a, b *) accidentally or less for (a *, b *); Game in B to acuities were to (a *, B) (a *, B *).</p><p>　　With the above definition, immediately get Nash theorem:</p><p>　　Any two peopl

40、e with limited pure strategy game with at least one equilibrium. This equilibrium is called a Nash equilibrium.</p><p>　　Nash theorem proved strictly use the fixed point theory, fixed point theory is the mai

41、n economic equilibrium research tools. In popular culture, for the existence of equilibrium is equivalent to find the fixed point game.</p><p>　　Nash equilibrium concept provides a very important means of an

42、alysis, can make the game theory research in the structure of a game looking for more meaningful results.</p><p>　　But Nash equilibrium definition is only limited to any players don't want to unilaterall

43、y change strategy, while ignoring the possibility of other players change strategy, therefore, in many cases, the conclusion is unconvincing, Nash equilibrium, the researchers vividly called "cute" Nash equilib

44、rium.</p><p>　　Theoden (r. Selten) in multiple equilibrium of some unreasonable equilibrium according to certain rules, and formed two balanced refining concepts: sub game equilibrium and trembling hands per

45、fect equilibrium completely.</p><p>　　The classification of the game according to the classification of different benchmarks also have different. It is generally believed that game mainly can be divided into

46、 cooperative game and non-cooperative game. Cooperative game and non-cooperative game of difference between interact each other have a binding agreement between the parties, if any, is a cooperative game, if not, it is a

47、 cooperative game.</p><p>　　From time series of the behavior, game theory is further divided into two categories, static game and dynamic game, static game is to point to in the game, participants in the sel

48、ection or at the same time, though not at the same time choose after the actors didn't know what specific actors to take the first action;</p><p>　　Dynamic game is to point to in the game, participates i

49、n a person's actions have order, and actors can be observed after the first actors chosen action. Popular understanding: "prisoner's dilemma" is the decision making at the same time, belongs to static g

50、ame; And decisions or actions such as board games has order, belongs to the dynamic game</p><p>　　According to the understanding of the players on the other player is divided into complete information game a

51、nd incomplete information game. Complete game is to point to in the process of game, every players on the other player's characteristics, the strategy space and yield function with accurate information.</p>&l

52、t;p>　　Incomplete information game is to point to if the players on the other player's characteristics, the strategy space and the revenue function information not accurate enough, or not to all participants in the

53、 characteristics, the strategy space and profit function has accurate information, in this case the game is the incomplete information game.</p><p>　　Now economists are now talking about game theory generall

54、y refers to the non-cooperative game, due to the complexity of cooperative game theory than the non-cooperative game theory, the theory of maturity than a non-cooperative game theory. Non cooperative game is divided into

55、: complete information static game and dynamic game with complete information and incomplete information static game of incomplete information dynamic game. And corresponding to the four kinds of game equilibrium concept

56、 is</p><p>　　Game theory still has a lot of classification, such as: the game for the number of times or continuous length can be divided into finite game and an infinite game; To form can also be divided in

57、to general type (strategic) or open type; Based on the logic of game and different can be divided into traditional game and evolutionary game theory.</p><p><b>　　2、博弈論</b></p><p>　　博

58、弈論是二人在平等的對(duì)局中各自利用對(duì)方的策略變換自己的對(duì)抗策略，達(dá)到取勝的目的。博弈論思想古已有之，中國(guó)古代的《孫子兵法》就不僅是一部軍事著作，而且算是最早的一部博弈論著作。博弈論最初主要研究象棋、橋牌、賭博中的勝負(fù)問題，人們對(duì)博弈局勢(shì)的把握只停留在經(jīng)驗(yàn)上，沒有向理論化發(fā)展。</p><p>　?。?)決策人：在博弈中率先作出決策的一方，這一方往往依據(jù)自身的感受、經(jīng)驗(yàn)和表面狀態(tài)優(yōu)先采取一種有方向性的行動(dòng)。</

59、p><p>　　(2)對(duì)抗者：在博弈二人對(duì)局中行動(dòng)滯后的那個(gè)人，與決策人要作出基本反面的決定，并且他的動(dòng)作是滯后的、默認(rèn)的、被動(dòng)的，但最終占優(yōu)。他的策略可能依賴于決策人劣勢(shì)的策略選擇，占去空間特性，因此對(duì)抗是唯一占優(yōu)的方式，實(shí)為領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人的階段性終結(jié)行為。</p><p>　　(3)局中人（players）：在一場(chǎng)競(jìng)賽或博弈中，每一個(gè)有決策權(quán)的參與者成為一個(gè)局中人。只有兩個(gè)局中人的博弈現(xiàn)象稱為“兩

60、人博弈”，而多于兩個(gè)局中人的博弈稱為 “多人博弈”。</p><p>　　(4）策略（strategies）：一局博弈中，每個(gè)局中人都有選擇實(shí)際可行的完整的行動(dòng)方案，即方案不是某階段的行動(dòng)方案，而是指導(dǎo)整個(gè)行動(dòng)的一個(gè)方案，一個(gè)局中人的一個(gè)可行的自始至終全局籌劃的一個(gè)行動(dòng)方案，稱為這個(gè)局中人的一個(gè)策略。如果在一個(gè)博弈中局中人都總共有有限個(gè)策略，則稱為“有限博弈”，否則稱為“無限博弈”。</p><

61、;p>　　(5）得失（payoffs）：一局博弈結(jié)局時(shí)的結(jié)果稱為得失。每個(gè)局中人在一局博弈結(jié)束時(shí)的得失，不僅與該局中人自身所選擇的策略有關(guān)，而且與全局中人所取定的一組策略有關(guān)。所以，一局博弈結(jié)束時(shí)每個(gè)局中人的“得失”是全體局中人所取定的一組策略的函數(shù)，通常稱為支付（payoff）函數(shù)。</p><p>　　(6）次序（orders）：各博弈方的決策有先后之分，且一個(gè)博弈方要作不止一次的決策選擇，就出現(xiàn)了次序

62、問題；其他要素相同次序不同，博弈就不同。</p><p>　　(7）博弈涉及到均衡：均衡是平衡的意思，在經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)中，均衡意即相關(guān)量處于穩(wěn)定值。在供求關(guān)系中，某一商品市場(chǎng)如果在某一價(jià)格下，想以此價(jià)格買此商品的人均能買到，而想賣的人均能賣出，此時(shí)我們就說，該商品的供求達(dá)到了均衡。所謂納什均衡，它是一穩(wěn)定的博弈結(jié)果。</p><p>　　納什均衡(Nash Equilibrium）：在一策略組合中

63、，所有的參與者面臨這樣一種情況，當(dāng)其他人不改變策略時(shí)，他此時(shí)的策略是最好的。也就是說，此時(shí)如果他改變策略他的收益將會(huì)降低。在納什均衡點(diǎn)上，每一個(gè)理性的參與者都不會(huì)有單獨(dú)改變策略的沖動(dòng)。納什均衡點(diǎn)存在性證明的前提是“博弈均衡偶”概念的提出。所謂“均衡偶”是在二人零和博弈中，當(dāng)局中人A采取其最優(yōu)策略a*，局中人B也采取其最優(yōu)策略b*，如果局中人B仍采取b*，而局中人A卻采取另一種策略a，那么局中人A的收益不會(huì)超過他采取原來的策略a*的收益。

64、這一結(jié)果對(duì)局中人B亦是如此。</p><p>　　這樣，“均衡偶”的明確定義為：一對(duì)策略a*（屬于策略集A）和策略b*（屬于策略集B）稱之為均衡偶，對(duì)任一策略a（屬于策略集A）和策略b（屬于策略集B），總有：偶對(duì)（a,b*）≤偶對(duì)（a*,b*）≥偶對(duì)（a*，b）。</p><p>　　博弈的分類根據(jù)不同的基準(zhǔn)也有不同的分類。一般認(rèn)為，博弈主要可以分為合作博弈和非合作博弈。合作博弈和非合作博

65、弈的區(qū)別在于相互發(fā)生作用的當(dāng)事人之間有沒有一個(gè)具有約束力的協(xié)議，如果有，就是合作博弈，如果沒有，就是非合作博弈。</p><p>　　從行為的時(shí)間序列性，博弈論進(jìn)一步分為靜態(tài)博弈、動(dòng)態(tài)博弈兩類：靜態(tài)博弈是指在博弈中，參與人同時(shí)選擇或雖非同時(shí)選擇但后行動(dòng)者并不知道先行動(dòng)者采取了什么具體行動(dòng)；</p><p>　　動(dòng)態(tài)博弈是指在博弈中，參與人的行動(dòng)有先后順序，且后行動(dòng)者能夠觀察到先行動(dòng)者所選擇

66、的行動(dòng)。通俗的理解："囚徒困境"就是同時(shí)決策的，屬于靜態(tài)博弈；而棋牌類游戲等決策或行動(dòng)有先后次序的，屬于動(dòng)態(tài)博弈</p><p>　　按照參與人對(duì)其他參與人的了解程度分為完全信息博弈和不完全信息博弈。完全博弈是指在博弈過程中，每一位參與人對(duì)其他參與人的特征、策略空間及收益函數(shù)有準(zhǔn)確的信息。</p><p>　　不完全信息博弈是指如果參與人對(duì)其他參與人的特征、策略空間及收

67、益函數(shù)信息了解的不夠準(zhǔn)確、或者不是對(duì)所有參與人的特征、策略空間及收益函數(shù)都有準(zhǔn)確的信息，在這種情況下進(jìn)行的博弈就是不完全信息博弈。</p><p>　　目前經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們現(xiàn)在所談的博弈論一般是指非合作博弈，由于合作博弈論比非合作博弈論復(fù)雜，在理論上的成熟度遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)不如非合作博弈論。非合作博弈又分為：完全信息靜態(tài)博弈，完全信息動(dòng)態(tài)博弈，不完全信息靜態(tài)博弈，不完全信息動(dòng)態(tài)博弈。與上述四種博弈相對(duì)應(yīng)的均衡概念為：納什均衡(Na

68、sh equilibrium），子博弈精煉納什均衡（subgame perfect Nash equilibrium），貝葉斯納什均衡(Bayesian Nash equilibrium），精煉貝葉斯納什均衡(perfect Bayesian Nash equilibrium）。</p><p>　　博弈論還有很多分類，比如：以博弈進(jìn)行的次數(shù)或者持續(xù)長(zhǎng)短可以分為有限博弈和無限博弈；以表現(xiàn)形式也可以分為一般型（戰(zhàn)略