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1、原文:原文:ThehazardofmalhazardinterventiontosavetheeconomymaybeendangeringitByJamesK.GlassmanWhensomeoneinsuresyouagainsttheconsequencesofanastyeventoddlyenoughberaisestheincentivesfyoutobehaveinawaythatwillcausetheevent.Soi
2、fyourdiamondringisinsuredf$50000youaremelikelytoleaveitoutofthesafe.Economistscallthisphenomenon“malhazard“ifyoulookaroundyouwillseeiteverywhere.“Withautomobilecollisioninsurancefexampleoneismelikelytoventurefthonanicyni
3、ght“writesHarvardeconomistRidZeckhauser.FederaldepositinsurancemadeSafteralltheinsurercanraisepremiums)butfromimplicitones.Ifyourteenagerthinksyouwillbailhimoutofjailfixitwiththejudgeifhegetsarrestedthenhewillbemeapttodr
4、ivedrunk.MebroadlyintherescuersinstitutedpoliciesthatmadetheefftsofTimesCommitteetoSavetheWldseemquaint.InthecommitteesheydaytheAsiansgot$40billioninhelptheRussians$23billiontheGreenwichhedgefundguys$4billion.Butin200820
5、09justtwoprogramsinonecountry—AmericasTroubledAssetsReliefProgram(TARP)itsstimuluspackagetogethertotalmethan$1.5trillion.MeanwhiletheFedcutshtterminterestratestozerotheWhiteHouseCongressdecidedtosavethecountryslargestins
6、urancecompany(AmericanInternationalGroupAIG)itslargestsecondlargestautomakers(GeneralMotsChrysler)itstwolargestprovidersofmtgagefinancing(FannieMaeFreddieMac)variousgiganticcommercialinvestmentbanksfinancecompanies.Thecr
7、eepingdreadisthatpreviousrescuepolicieshadinducedthemalhazardthatmadethe200809crisisnotonlyinevitablebutalsofarwseinscalethantheeconomicdisruptionsthathadcomebefe—thatthe200809rescuewillinduceadisasterwsestill.Thefinanci
8、alhistianlesKindlebergerinhisclassicManiasPanicsCrasheshaditrightmethan30yearsagowhenhedescribed“themalhazardthatthemeinterventionisttheauthitiesarewithrespecttothecurrentcrisisthemeintensethenextbubblewillbebecausemanyo
9、fthemarketparticipantswillbelievethattheirpossiblelosseswillbelimitedbygovernmentmeasures.“HowmuchmalhazardissloshingaroundthewldThatcantbemeasuredbutPeterL.BernsteinoneofthegreathistiansofeconomicriskwroteinJune:“Themal
10、hazardimposedonthesysteminrecentmonthsistrulymindbogglinginscalescope.Acrosstheglobethebanksinsurerswhoseerrsofjudgmentcreatedthebubbleshavebeenbailedoutwithouthesitation.“BernsteinwhodiedinJuneat91wrotethosewdsinashtman
11、upublishedposthumouslybytheHarvardBusinessReview.Hearguednotjustthatthereisagreatdealofmalhazardaroundbutalsothatunlikeinthepastfewpeopleseemwriedaboutit.Hewascertainlyalonelyvoice.“Iamdisturbed“hewrote“bythealmostcomple
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