seeingdoubleatcentralbanks一個(gè)央行兩個(gè)大頭

1、SeeingDoubleatCentralBanks一個(gè)央行兩個(gè)大頭Oxfd–Centralbanksarenowtargetingliquiditynotjustinflation.Thecreditboomofthepastdecadehighlightedtheinadequacyoffocusingonlyonpricesunderscedtheneedfthemoaryauthityofacountrytomonitthefi

2、nancialsect.Macroprudentialregulationisthenewtermofartamongcentralbankerssupplementingtheirwellestablishedinflationtargetingregimes.牛津——如今，央行的目標(biāo)不僅包括通脹，也包括流動(dòng)性。過去十年的信貸繁榮清楚地表明僅僅關(guān)注價(jià)格水平是不夠的，貨幣當(dāng)局還需要密切監(jiān)控金融部門。宏觀審慎監(jiān)管已成為央行所要掌握的新技能

3、，以補(bǔ)充已經(jīng)成型的通脹目標(biāo)機(jī)制。ThisshiftinfocuscouldradicallychangemoarypolicybutfbetterwseTheBankofEnglmaybeblazingthewayinthistransitionbuttheECBtheUnitedStatesFederalReserveBoardaretakingonmefinancialregulationaswell.IndeedtheECB’sE

4、uropeanSystemicRiskBoardservesafunctionthatissimilartotheUnitedKingdom’snewFinancialPolicyCommittee(FPC).這一政策焦點(diǎn)的轉(zhuǎn)變將徹底改變貨幣政策，但會(huì)變好還是變壞？英格蘭銀行正在邁出轉(zhuǎn)變的步伐，但歐洲央行和美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)董事會(huì)也在采取更多的金融管制手段。事實(shí)上，歐洲央行的歐洲系統(tǒng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)委員會(huì)和英國(guó)的新金融政策委員會(huì)（FPC）具有相同的職能。Att

5、heendofarecentdiscussionwithyHaldanetheBankofEngl’sExecutiveDirectfFinancialStabilityamemberoftheFPCIasked:WhathappensifinflationishighlendingislowUnderthisscenariotheBankofEngl’sMoaryPolicyCommittee(MPC)wouldfavanincrea

6、seininterestrateswhiletheFPCwouldwanttoloosenmoaryconditions.最近，我和英格蘭銀行負(fù)責(zé)金融穩(wěn)定性的執(zhí)行董事兼FPC成員霍爾丹（yHaldane）進(jìn)行了探討，討論結(jié)束時(shí)，我問：如果通脹高企而貸款量很低怎么辦？在這一情形下，英格蘭銀行貨幣政策委員會(huì)（MPC）將傾向于提高利率，而FPC則更愿意放松銀根。IamstillponderingthequestionthatIposedtoH

7、aldanebecausethepotentialfsuchcontradictypolicyimperativesappearsunavoidable–nevermesothannow.對(duì)于這個(gè)問題，我自己仍在思考，因?yàn)閺哪壳暗那闆r來(lái)看，這種政策上的相互沖突已經(jīng)是不可避免的了。Thelastdecade–untilthecollapseofLehmanBrothersinSeptember2008–wasknownastheGreat

8、Moderationaperiodoflowinflationstronggrowththatreflectedmajnewdevelopmentssuchasglobalintegrationofemergingmarketsmajcentralbanks’adoptionofinflationtargetingregimesduringthe1990’s.IntheUnitedKingdomtheBankofEnglwasmadei

9、ndependentin1997givenatargetof2%annualinflation.過去十年（直到2008年雷曼兄弟公司倒閉之前）被稱為“大穩(wěn)健”時(shí)代，這段低通脹、高增長(zhǎng)的時(shí)期反映了多項(xiàng)重大新發(fā)展，比如新ouldfacecompetingpressures.Looserlendingruleswouldconflictwiththehighercostofmoney.BecauseboththeFPCtheMPCrelyon

10、amoarytransmissionmechanismthatoperatesthroughbanksitisn’tclearthatinflationtargetingliquiditymaintenancecanbesoneatlyseparated.現(xiàn)在的問題是，衡量流向私人部門的貸款的指標(biāo)——貨幣總量（M4）正處于十年來(lái)的最低點(diǎn)，而通脹率則是英格蘭銀行目標(biāo)率的兩倍。如果FPC放松資本要求以刺激貸款，而MPC提升利率以抑制通脹，那

11、么銀行將會(huì)面臨競(jìng)爭(zhēng)壓力。放松貸款規(guī)則與提高資金成本是相互沖突的。由于FPC和MPC均須依賴銀行實(shí)現(xiàn)貨幣傳遞機(jī)制，因此要把通脹目標(biāo)和保證流動(dòng)性目標(biāo)相分離并不容易。Thereisalsotheaddedcomplexityofglobalregulation.Theideaisthatcountrieswouldcodinatecountercyclicalregulatymeasurestherebypreventingcapitalfr

12、omskirtingthembymovingacrossbders.Butwhatif–thisisverylikely–businesscyclesarenotcodinatedAfterallChinaistighteningcreditwhiletheUKisencouragingmeofit.全球監(jiān)管的復(fù)雜性也在增加。人們的如意算盤是各國(guó)能在實(shí)施反周期監(jiān)管措施方面合作無(wú)間，從而防止資本通過跨國(guó)流動(dòng)規(guī)避監(jiān)管。但是，如果商業(yè)周期并不

13、協(xié)調(diào)怎么辦——而這樣的可能性非常大？如今英國(guó)正在刺激信貸，而中國(guó)卻在收緊信貸。ClosertoBritaintheECBispotentiallyembarkingonatighteningcyclewithdrawinghundredsofbillionsofeurosinliquidityprovidedduringthecrisisowingtoconcernsabout“addicted”banks.Willitreallylo

14、osencapitalrequirementsindertoalignitselfwiththeBOE與英國(guó)更接近的歐洲央行由于擔(dān)心銀行“產(chǎn)生依賴心理”，也進(jìn)入了緊縮周期，正在著手收回危機(jī)期間放出了數(shù)千億歐元。歐洲央行真的會(huì)為了和英格蘭銀行保持一致而放松資本要求嗎？Againsuchpolicieswouldhavewkedadecadeagoinanenvironmentoflowinflationrapidlendinggrowth

15、.Buttimeshavechangedmoarypolicywillofcourseshiftaccdingly.TheproblemisthatifbodiesliketheFPCbecomeasimptanttocentralbanksasmoarypolicycommitteeswemaybeleftwonderingwhichtargettakesprecedencewhentheyclash.這些政策在十年前的低通脹、高貸款