煤炭行業(yè)2019年年度投資策略報告君子藏器于身，待時而動，順勢而為

1、目錄1.煤市的變與不變煤市的變與不變....................................................................................................................................................................................51.1變化一：高庫存貫穿全年.......

2、.......................................................................51.2變化二：煤價呈現(xiàn)淡季不淡旺季不旺...................................................................61.3變化三：內(nèi)陸電廠與沿海電廠日耗分化加劇.......................................

3、.......................61.4變化四：表外產(chǎn)能逐步回歸表內(nèi)........................................................................71.5不變：穩(wěn)煤價、去杠桿的總目標(biāo)不動搖..................................................................92.明后兩年產(chǎn)能釋明后兩年產(chǎn)能釋放力度

4、有限力度有限................................................................................................................................................................92.1表內(nèi)：在建產(chǎn)能雖多但邊際貢獻有限..................................

5、.................................102.2表外：產(chǎn)能集中釋放需至2021年.....................................................................132.3去產(chǎn)能：加大引導(dǎo)南方地區(qū)落后產(chǎn)能退出...............................................................142.4進口煤：調(diào)控

6、供需、煤價的重要舉措...................................................................163.經(jīng)濟放緩經(jīng)濟放緩需求承壓需求承壓...........................................................................................................................

7、.................................................173.1電力：煤炭消費的“壓艙石”.........................................................................................................................................183.1.1電能替代、居民用電

8、支撐用電需求...............................................................183.1.2電煤消費增速小幅回落.........................................................................203.2鋼鐵：地產(chǎn)趨弱基建托底需求承壓.........................................

9、..........................213.2.1地產(chǎn)：韌性仍存...............................................................................213.2.2基建：政策托底基建投資有望觸底回升..........................................................223.3建材：水泥行業(yè)高景氣延續(xù)需求

10、穩(wěn)中有升..............................................................233.4煤化工：現(xiàn)代煤化工極具發(fā)展?jié)摿?....................................................................244.價格展望價格展望.....................................................

11、.........................................................................................................................................254.1供需雙弱缺口收窄......................................................................

12、............254.2動力煤：先抑后揚價格中樞略有下移..................................................................264.3焦煤：緊平衡格局依舊價格高位震蕩..................................................................264.4焦炭：彈性十足關(guān)注政策落地情況..............

13、......................................................275.投資策略：伺機投資策略：伺機而動緊抓三條主線緊抓三條主線......................................................................................................................................

14、........275.1陜西煤業(yè)：陜煤有道回購顯阡陌海內(nèi)稟賦異............................................................285.2中國神華：全產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈一體化運營熨平周期波動..........................................................285.3昊華能源：西山煤盡期可汗騰龍換鳥譜新章.....................

15、.......................................295.4潞安環(huán)能：低估值噴吹煤龍頭.........................................................................29表格目錄表格目錄表1:煤炭最低和最高庫存制度煤炭最低和最高庫存制度.......................................................

16、.............................................................................................................6表2:表內(nèi)合法生產(chǎn)煤礦產(chǎn)能變化表內(nèi)合法生產(chǎn)煤礦產(chǎn)能變化...................................................................................

17、.............................................................................7表3:在建礦井產(chǎn)能變化（不含新建）在建礦井產(chǎn)能變化（不含新建）...............................................................................................................

18、.......................................10表4:能源局口徑內(nèi)新建礦井未來產(chǎn)能源局口徑內(nèi)新建礦井未來產(chǎn)能投放進度投放進度......................................................................................................................................11東興證券年

19、度報告東興證券年度報告煤炭行業(yè)：君子藏器于身待時而動順勢而為DONGXINGSECURITIES圖28:煤化工產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈化工產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈.............................................................................................................................................................

20、.....................24圖29:截止2017年底我年底我國部分現(xiàn)代煤化工項目發(fā)展概況部分現(xiàn)代煤化工項目發(fā)展概況....................................................................................................................25圖30:110月煉焦煤產(chǎn)量同比下降月煉焦煤產(chǎn)量同比下降3.2%.....

21、............................................................................................................................27圖31:煉焦煤供需平衡情況焦煤供需平衡情況.........................................................................

22、.............................................................................................27圖32:110月焦炭產(chǎn)量同比下降月焦炭產(chǎn)量同比下降1%..................................................................................................