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1、Pleaserefertopage47fimptantdisclosuresanalystcertificationonourwebsiteresearchdisclosures.21June2019SingapeEQUITIESInsideThesisinsixts2Meivevalueatoughersledding3Flexingthescenarios6RatesNIMs:Taperahead8Loansgrowth:Riskt

2、othedownside12Provisions:Manageable16Appendix:ValuationlessfavourableriskrewardWeareincrementallycautiousontheSingapebanksaswefactinlowerUSratessoftermacro.Whilethefundamentalimpactfromthesechangesissettoimpactmostlyfrom

3、2020E(bothinabsolutevs.consensus)wethinkcompanycommentarywilllikelygetmeconservativeoverthecourseof2019E(infactwesensedamecalibratedtoneonourASEANbankstourjustthisweek).Meoverwethinkourmaindownsidecases(threefourcuts)loo

4、kmelikelythanourupsidescenario(nocuts)alsomakingriskrewardlessfavourable.Wecutourestimatespricetargetsacrosstheboard(tableontheleft).Valuationslookfullespeciallypostrecentsharepricestrengthwhichwethinkwasdrivenbyexpectat

5、ionsoftradetensionresolution(whichishardtohicapmacroconditionsweresofteningevenbefethetradetalkswerestalled).WeseevalueinOCBCwhichhaslaggedpeersisabitlessimpactedbytheratechangesinourframewk.UOBisalsorelativelymeinsulate

6、dbutitsrecentsharepricemovemakesriskrewardlessattractive(tonleft)wemoveittoNeutralonvaluationgrounds.DBSismostsensitivetoratechangesinourmodelvaluationlooksfulltous.WekeepitatNeutral.ScenarioscentredontwocutbasecaseOurUS

7、economistDavidDoyleiscallingftworatecutsthroughyearendwhichwefactintoourbasecasefecastsfSGthreemonthLIBHKratesallofwhichresultsinNIMpressure.Weranscenariosaroundthiscasetakingintoaccountotherareaslikeinterestearningasset

8、growthopexprovisions:?Scenario1(maindownsidescenario):Additionalratecutsoftermacro:Highsingledigitpercentageaveragehittoearningsin2020E2021EaswellasourfairvaluesCET1stillwellsupptedthough.?Scenario2:Twoadditionalratecuts

9、pomacro:~22%hittoeachof202021Eaverageearnings~17%toourfairvaluesSilverliningwiseCET1holdsupat13.4%inthewstimpactedcase(DBS).?Scenario3:Upsidecaseassumingnoratecuts:Thisscenariodoeselicithighsingledigitupsidetoourestimate

10、sfairvalueseffectivelyactingasacounterpointtoScenario1above.MecompellingopptunitieselsewhereThebanks’CET1ratiosremainhealthyinourbasedownsidecasescanthussuppttheprogressiveDPSwearefecasting.Assuchthebanksstilloffersolidy

11、ieldsuppt.ButmeattractivelyvaluedcombinationsofyieldfundamentalscanbefoundinSingapePropertydevelopersedIndustrialswethink.MacquarieResearchSingapeBanks21June20193MeivevalueatoughersleddingBakinginMacquarie’slatestexpecta

12、tionsftwoUSratecutsin2H19…OurUSeconomistDavidDoyleisnowcallingftworatecutsthroughyearend(basecase:SepOct)webakethispathintoourbasecasefecastsfSingapethreemonthinterestrates.WealsomakeconfmingadjustmentstoourLIBshttermHKr

13、ateassumptions(our‘masterflex’framewkisoutlinedinthenextsection).Giventhetimingofthecutsvariousrepricinglagsthemainimpactonourestimatesfromtheratecutsisseenfrom2020E.…Aswellasamemixedmacrooutlook…Weflagtheslowingmomentum

14、signalledbyRicDeverellteam’sMacquarieChinaBusinessCycleIndicatwhichdoesnotyetreflectthefullimpactofincreasedUSChinatariffs.ClosertohomeASEANasawholehasbeenreptingslowereconomicgrowthledbySingape.Theregion’sdlemanposition

15、ingaUSChinatradetensionsfurtherraisesdownsideriskswethink:WhilethereismuchdiscussionofsupplychainsrelocatingtoASEANfromNthAsiawethinkthenegativeimpactofprolongedelevatedtariffswillbefeltfirst.Thisviewwasreinfcedpostourre

16、centASEANbankstour.whilethereisroomfpolicyresponseinmostASEANcountrieswethinkrisksareincreasinglytiltedtothedownsideonloansgrowthprovisions.…WerevisedownourestimatesrefreshourmainscenariosInadditiontoourcompanyspecifices

17、timatechangessummarizedonthecoverinFig13wehaverefreshedourtopdownmodelwhichhelpsgaugetheimpactofchanginginterestratesoninterestmargins(NIMs)servestocalibrateourbottomupfecasts.Wewouldn’treadtoomuchintothefecastchangesbet

18、weenthethreebanksasthereisanelementof‘resetting’atplayaswealsofmallytransfercoveragetoConradWernerWeiMingAnginthisrept.MeimptantlywenowpencilincontractingNIMsinourbasecase.AsmentionedgiventhetimingofourexpectedUSratecuts

19、mostoftheimpactisfrom2020E(Fig2)buttheeffectsarelikelytobediscountedinsharesearlierwethink.while2Q19resultsarelikelytostillcomeinsolid(NIMexpansion)wesensedamecalibratedtoneontherecentbankstour.NIMcontractionpresentsahea

20、dwindfinterestincome(NII)growththatwilllikelyprovedifficulttooffsetwithhigherloansgrowthathelessrobustmacrooutlook.Ourbasecaseassumessingleloansgrowthfthesectin2019E(inlinewithmostbanks’guidance)whichisstillsupptedbysome

21、legacypipelinebutcarriessomedownsideriskwethink.Thisisfollowedbyataperingfrom2020Easoutlinedinalatersection.FurtherdownthePmacrorisksstilltothedownsideASEANbankstourfeedback:SupplychainsnotyetmovingtoSEAsiainameaningfulw

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