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1、Whyreadthisrept?Wearebullishontheglobalphotovoltaicproductmarketin201921eassolargetsclosertocompetingwithfossilfuelsonanequalfooting?Chineseproducerssttobenefitastheyincreasetheirdominanceoftheglobalsupplychainwethinkpol
2、icyconcernsareoverdone?WeexplainwhyLongiTongweiarebestpositionedtobenefitThekeymessagesThesolarindustryisnostrangertovolatility.Sharpswingsinproductpricesovercapacityissuesinturnknockoneffectsonstockpriceshavebeencommon.
3、Therootcauseisoftensubsidiesasgovernmentspushfcleanerpower.Germanyledthewaybecamethewld’slargestsolarmarketin2010.Chinasoontookoversolarcapacitygrewfrom19GWin2013to175GWin2018.ButthisledtoovercapacityasupplyglutsoChinaha
4、scutbacksubsidiesplanstophasethemoutcompletelyby2021.ChinaisnotaloneincuttingCeyChan(S1700518100001)HeadofAshareInfrastructureResearchHSBCQianhaiSecuritiesLimitedcey.chan@.cn8675588983404DunWang(S1700519060002)AnalystAsh
5、areInfrastructureHSBCQianhaiSecuritiesLimiteddun.wang@.cnEmployedbyanonUSaffiliateofHSBCSecurities(USA)IncisnotregisteredqualifiedpursuanttoFINRAregulationssubsidies.OthercountrieslikeBritainSpainhavealsoreducedsubsidies
6、assolargetsclosertocompetingwithfossilfuelsonanequalfooting.InthisreptweexplainwhywehaveabullishoutlookontheChinesesolarcompaniesgiven:1)ourglobalteam’sbullishfecastsfglobalsolarinstallations:2)China’srisingperationofthe
7、globalsolarsupplychain.Whileweexpectcostsinthesupplychaintokeepfallingwebelievetherateofcostdeclineislikelytosubside.Weexpectfuturecostreductionstocomeinthefmofhighercellefficiencylessrawmaterialconsumptioneconomiesofsca
8、leinproduction.Lowersolarcosts–theyhavealreadyfallen92%inthelastdecade–shoulddrivelongtermdemincreasephotovoltaic(PV)installations.Whereourviewdiffersfromconsensus?Webelieveconsensusconcernsaboutpolicyriskareoverdone.Wet
9、hinktherolepolicyincentivesplayinnewsolarinstallationswilldiminishasthemarketmovesclosertogridparitythepointwherealternativeenergieslikesolarmatchthepriceofusingfossilfuels.?Weanalyzeindustrytechnologytrendsseemeuncertai
10、ntyincellmoduletechnologythanfwaferpolysilicon.?Wecomparetheriskstooversupplyofdifferentpartsofthesupplychainconcludethatwafermanufacturingisarelativelysafeplacegivenitsrelativelyconsolidatedmarkethighinvestmentbarriers.
11、Stocks:AssupplychaincostpressureislikelytopersistweexpectcostleaderstostoutwepreferLongi–thecostleaderinwafer–Tongwei–thecostleaderinpolysiliconcellbothratedBuy.Comparedwithotherpartsofthesupplychainwebelievewaferpolysil
12、iconcostleaderswillfinditrelativelyeasiertomaintainscaleadvantagesgiventhehighshareoffixedcostintheircoststructure.WealsohaveBuyratingsonZhonghuanJingsheng.WehaveaReduceratingonFirstAppliedMaterial(FAM)asweseepressureone
13、arnings.Factsfigures11%GlobalnewPVinstallationsCAGRin201820e129GWGlobalnewPVinstallationin2020ecRMB270bnMarketsizeoftheglobalPVsupplychainin2020ec90%China’sshareinglobalwafersupplyin2018c80%China’sshareinglobalcellmodule
14、supplyin2018c50%China’sshareinglobalpolysiliconproductionin201826%TheshareofnewglobalPVinstallationsbycountriesthatachievedsolargridparityin201892%Howmuchsolarcostshavepedinthelastdecade1040%Thisishowmuchsolarcostsneedto
15、fromthecurrentlevelfsolargridparityonaglobalscaleWeexpectthesharetoincreasetoover70%by2021whenChinareachesgridparitymakingpolicyincentivealessimptantfactfsolardemWeexpectacloserlevelizedcostofelectricity(LCOE)gapbetweens
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