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1、Disclosures&DisclaimerThisreptmustbereadwiththedisclosurestheanalystcertificationsintheDisclosureappendixwiththeDisclaimerwhichfmspartofit.Issuerofrept:TheHongkongShanghaiBankingCpationLimitedViewHSBCGlobalResearchat::ww

2、w.research.????THISCONTENTMAYNOTBEDISTRIBUTEDTOTHEPEOPLESREPUBLICOFCHINA(THE“PRC“)(EXCLUDINGSPECIALADMINISTRATIVEREGIONSOFHONGKONGMACAO)?BackfromthesolarexpoinShanghaiweremaincautiousonneartermsolarinstallationpricesalon

3、gthesupplychain?GlobaldemsupplybalanceturningmeunfavourableespeciallyChina’spolicycutsonpricecapacity?Recentsharepricecrectionsappeartoreflectcurrentrisksbutmenegativecatalystsmaybeonthehizon.MaintainBuyonXYSSlowerinstal

4、lationsshouldcreatedownsiderisksonvolumesASPs:AfterattendingtheSNECScientificConferenceExpoinShanghaiweremaincautiousonsolarinstallationprices.Asthegovernmenttriestorationalizenewsolarprojectswenowfecastnewinstallationsa

5、t37GWin2018(down31%YoY)whichshouldnegativelyimpactdeliveriesfourcoveredsolarequipmentplays.SolarproductshavebeenonadowncycleYTDwebelievethenewpolicycutinongridtariffapprovalsfnewcapacitybuildon31May2018willcreatefurtherp

6、ressureacrossthesupplychain.Asourcoveredsolarcompaniesarelargelyexposedtothemanufacturingsolarproductsearningsaresubjecttocontractionsinbothvolumemargins.AsasolarglassmakerwebelieveXinyiSolar(XYS968HKBuy)isrelativelywell

7、positionedwithmeresilientfluctuations.Inthisnoteweprovideaglobalsolardemsupplymatrix(Chinapivotundermines2018growthoutlook8June2018)aswellastakeawaysfromourrecentattendanceoftheSNECexpocalculatedIRRsfnewsolarprojectsatgr

8、idparityetc.Recaponrecentpolicytocurbsolargrowth:On31May2018NEANDRCMOFannouncedatariffcutofRMB0.05kWhfsolarpowerplantsthatbeginoperationafter31May2018whileongridtariffsfnewutilityscaleprojectsnotyetapprovedwouldbedetermi

9、nedthroughacompetitivebiddingprocess.Alsonomeutilityscalequotas(previous:13.9GW)weregivenf2018distributedPVinstallationswerecappedat10GWwhichwasalreadyachievedinMay2018.FdetailsreferChinaSolar:Anothersolarshock4June2018.

10、GCLPolysellingitssolarmaterialbusiness:On6JuneGCLPoly(3800HKHold)proposedplansofsellingits51%interestinthepolywaferproductionbaseJiangsuZhongnengtoShanghaiElectric.WebelievethisdisposalshoulddegearGCL’sbalancesheetwithen

11、hancedcashliquidityprovidingaoneoffreratingopptunity.GCLPoly&ShanghaiElectric:Bothgettingwhattheywant7June2018.HoldratingsonGCLSingyes.BuyratingonXYS:Wecutour201820eearningsonthebackoflowervolumeproductprices.XYS(TPcutto

12、HKD3.50fromHKD4.20)isourpreferredpickfitsmarketleadershipinsolarglasshigherROE.ReiterateHoldonGCLPoly(HKD0.87TPunchanged)ChinaSingyes(750HKTPcuttoHKD2.90fromHKD3.30)giventheirexposuretoupstreamcomponentsEPCbusinesswhicha

13、remevulnerable.8June2018EvanLiHeadofUtilities&AlternativeEnergyResearchAPACTheHongkongShanghaiBankingCpationLimitedevan.m.h.li@.hk85229966619HebeZhouAssociateUtilities&AlternativeEnergyTheHongkongShanghaiBankingCpationLi

14、mitedhebe.j.zhou@.hk85229149973ShanmugaSundaramArumugamAssociateBangaleEmployedbyanonUSaffiliateofHSBCSecurities(USA)IncisnotregisteredqualifiedpursuanttoFINRAregulationsChinaSolarEQUITIESELECTRICUTILITIESChinaWaitingfsu

15、nshine????3EQUITIES●ELECTRICUTILITIES8June2018?Asgridparityapproachesweexpectfurthertariffcutstocomebefe2020.Alongwithtariffcutswebelievethat1)constructioncostperMWwillalsocontinuetofallontechnologyadvancement2)improvedu

16、tilizationhoursdrivenbylowercurtailmentpriitydispatchofrenewableenergysupptedbyfavourablepolicies.WecalculateequityIRRat810%fapprovedprojectsthatcomeonlineafter1June2018estimateequityIRRat67%fprojectsthatbecomeoperationa

17、lin2020.EquityIRRfnewsolarpowerprojects201620172018e2019e2020eAssumedtariffs(RMBkWh)Zone10.800.650.500.430.35Zone20.880.750.600.500.40Zone30.980.850.700.580.45Utilisationassumptions(hours)Zone114001456152815641600Zone212

18、201274136214061450Zone3800895107211611250Constructioncost(RMBmMW)7.06.25.75.44.9EquityIRRsZone116%15%9%7%6%Zone214%15%10%9%7%Zone36%8%8%7%6%Source:NEANDRCHSBCestimatesExpectslowdownininstallationsofteneddemin2018?Duringt

19、heconferenceseveralindustryexpertsexpressedconcernsthatannualsolarnewinstallationmayslowin2018afterarecdaddof53GWin2017.Ourindustryresearchefftswithwaferpolysiliconsuppliersaswellasmodulemanufacturersduringthetradeshowal

20、sosuggeststhatthe“rushinstallation”aheadof30Juneseeninpastseveralyearsisunlikelythisyear.?Unlikeprevioustariffcutsthatbecomeeffectiveonapredeterminedfuturedatenewpolicyonexistingprojects(tariffcuts)futureapprovals(warran

21、tedthroughbidding)iseffectiveimmediatelyleavingnograceperiodfanotherinstallationrushinthemarket.AsthegovernmenttriestorationalisesolardevelopmentgiventheRenewableEnergyFundisrunningonadeficitexceedingRMB110bnasofend2017w

22、ebelievenewsolarinstallationin2018couldfallYoY.Basedonannouncedpoliciesourindustryresearchefftsattheexpoourscenarioanalysissuggestsnewsolarinstallationin2018couldbeonly37GWimplyinga31%from53GWin201722%shtofconsensusestim

23、atesof50GWearlierthisyear.Inourpreviousrepts(e.g.YearoftheDogOutlook:Whosgotthepedigree23February2018)wefecastonly45GWin2018withabearcasescenarioof35GWcomparedto53GWachievedin2017.Possibleonly37GWofsolartobeinstalledin20

24、18implyinga31%YoYYearUtilityscalewithnationalsubsidyUtilityscalewithoutnationalsubsidy(estimated)FrontrunnerDistributedsolarwithnationalsubsidyDistributedsolarwithoutnationalsubsidy(estimated)Povertyalleviation1stbatch(a

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