徐友方畢業(yè)論文

1、我國(guó)轎車市場(chǎng)需求量預(yù)測(cè)分析徐友方院 別：數(shù)學(xué)科學(xué)學(xué)院 學(xué) 科： 理學(xué)專 業(yè)： 統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)指導(dǎo)教師： 段彥玲貴州?銅仁2015年6月鋼£學(xué)陌#9柏召臼UNWEREITY學(xué) 號(hào)：2011041163本科畢業(yè)論文我國(guó)轎車市場(chǎng)需求量預(yù)測(cè)分析數(shù)學(xué)科學(xué)學(xué)院統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)專業(yè)徐友方摘要本文對(duì)我國(guó)轎車市場(chǎng)需求量的研究，在國(guó)家統(tǒng)計(jì)年鑒小，搜集大量有關(guān)轎車生產(chǎn)、 銷量和使用的信息。做相應(yīng)的定性、定量分析，找出影響我國(guó)轎車市場(chǎng)需求量的因素， 并求岀相應(yīng)的回歸模

2、型；運(yùn)用時(shí)間數(shù)列預(yù)測(cè)法和調(diào)用GM預(yù)測(cè)軟件(即灰色系統(tǒng)預(yù)測(cè) 軟件)對(duì)我國(guó)未來(lái)轎車市場(chǎng)需求量進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)。選用多種模型進(jìn)行分析，根據(jù)多種模型的 擬合優(yōu)度進(jìn)行比較，選用最好的擬合優(yōu)度，得出相應(yīng)的三次曲線模型。通過(guò)對(duì)2003 ~ 2014年的數(shù)據(jù)對(duì)2015 ~ 2020年的轎車需求量進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)，并為有關(guān)行業(yè)和企業(yè)促進(jìn)轎車 市場(chǎng)的發(fā)展提供參考。關(guān)鍵詞：時(shí)間數(shù)列預(yù)測(cè)；GM預(yù)測(cè)軟件；擬合優(yōu)度；三次曲線模型China's Car Market

3、Demand Forecast AnalysisInstitute Of Mathematical Sciences StatisticsStatistics professionalXu YoufangABSTRACTIn this paper, the study of China's car market demand, in the national statistical yearbook, collect a lot

4、 of information about car production, sales and use. Do the corresponding qualitative and quantitative analysis, find out the influence factors of China's car market demand, and the corresponding regression model; Us

5、ing time series prediction method and call GM prediction software (that is, the grey system prediction software) to forecast demand for cars in the future market in China? A variety of model is analyzed, according to a v

6、ariety of goodness of fit of the model, it USES the best goodness-of^fit, draw the corresponding curve model three times. Based on data from 2003 to 2014 in 2015 ?2020 car demand forecast, as well as relevant industries