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1、<p>  Risk Analysis of the International Construction Project</p><p>  By: Paul Stanford Kupakuwana</p><p>  Cost Engineering Vol. 51/No. 9 September 2009</p><p><b>  A

2、BSTRACT</b></p><p>  This analysis used a case study methodology to analyse the issues surrounding the partial collapse of the roof of a building housing the headquarters of the Standards Association o

3、f Zimbabwe (SAZ). In particular, it examined the prior roles played by the team of construction professionals. The analysis revealed that the SAZ’s traditional construction project was generally characterized by high ris

4、k. There was a clear indication of the failure of a contractor and architects in preventing and/or m</p><p>  KEY WORDS:Arbitration, claims, construction, contracts, litigation, project and risk</p>&

5、lt;p>  The structural design of the reinforced concrete elements was done by consulting engineers Knight Piesold (KP). Quantity surveying services were provided by Hawkins, Leshnick & Bath (HLB). The contract was

6、awarded to Central African Building Corporation (CABCO) who was also responsible for the provision of a specialist roof structure using patented “gang nail” roof trusses. The building construction proceeded to completion

7、 and was handed over to the owners on Sept. 12, 1991. The SAZ took effecti</p><p>  The roof structure was in place 10 years before partial failure in December 1999. The building insurance coverage did not c

8、over enough, the City of Harare, a government municipality, issued the certificate of occupation 10 years after occupation, and after partial collapse of the roof .</p><p>  At first the SAZ decided to go to

9、 arbitration, but this failed to yield an immediate solution. The SAZ then decided to proceed to litigate in court and to bring a negligence claim against CABCO. The preparation for arbitration was reused for litigation.

10、 The SAZ’s quantified losses stood at approximately $ 6 million in Zimbabwe dollars (US $1.2m) .</p><p>  After all parties had examined the facts and evidence before them, it became clear that there was a g

11、reat probability that the courts might rule that both the architects and the contractor were liable. It was at this stage that the defendants’ lawyers requested that the matter be settled out of court. The plaintiff agre

12、ed to this suggestion, with the terms of the settlement kept confidential .</p><p>  The aim of this critical analysis was to analyse the issues surrounding the partial collapse of the roof of the building h

13、ousing the HQ of Standard Association of Zimbabwe. It examined the prior roles played by the project management function and construction professionals in preventing/mitigating potential construction problems. It further

14、 assessed the extent to which the employer/client and parties to a construction contract are able to recover damages under that contract. The main objective o</p><p>  Experience suggests that participants i

15、n a project are well able to identify risks based on their own experience. The adoption of a risk management approach, based solely in past experience and dependant on judgement, may work reasonably well in a stable low

16、risk environment. It is unlikely to be effective where there is a change. This is because change requires the extrapolation of past experience, which could be misleading. All construction projects are prototypes to some

17、extent and imply chan</p><p>  Construction professionals need to know how to balance the contingencies of risk with their specific contractual, financial, operational and organizational requirements. Many c

18、onstruction professionals look at risks in dividually with a myopic lens and do not realize the potential impact that other associated risks may have on their business operations. Using a holistic risk management approac

19、h will enable a firm to identify all of the organization’s business risks. This will increase the probab</p><p>  Recommended key construction and risk management strategies for future construction projects

20、have been considered and their explanation follows. J.W. Hinchey stated that there is and can be no ‘best practice’ standard for risk allocation on a high-profile project or for that matter, any project. He said, instead

21、, successful risk management is a mind-set and a process. According to Hinchey, the ideal mind-set is for the parties and their representatives to, first, be intentional about identifying</p><p>  According

22、to D. Atkinson, whether contractor, consultant or promoter, the right team needs to be assembled with the relevant multi-disciplinary experience of that particular type of project and its location. This is said to be nec

23、essary not only to allow alternative responses to be explored. But also to ensure that the right questions are asked and the major risks identified. Heads of sources of risk are said to be a convenient way of providing a

24、 structure for identifying risks to completion of </p><p>  It is stated that the use of analytical techniques based on a statistical approach could be of enormous use in decision making . Many of these tech

25、niques are said to be relevant to estimation of the consequences of risk events, and not how allocation of risk is to be achieved. In addition, at the present stage of the development of risk management, Atkinson states

26、that it must be recognized that major decisions will be made that can not be based solely on mathematical analysis. The complexity of</p><p>  The new, simplified Construction Design and Management Regulatio

27、ns (CDM Regulations) which came in to force in the UK in April 2007, revised and brought together the existing CDM 1994 and the Construction Health Safety and Welfare (CHSW) Regulations 1996, into a single regulatory pac

28、kage. </p><p>  The new CDM regulations offer an opportunity for a step change in health and safety performance and are used to reemphasize the health, safety and broader business benefits of a well-managed

29、 and co-ordinated approach to the management of health and safety in construction. I believe that the development of these skills is imperative to provide the client with the most effective services available, delivering

30、 the best value project possible.</p><p>  Construction Management at Risk (CM at Risk), similar to established private sector methods of construction contracting, is gaining popularity in the public sector.

31、 It is a process that allows a client to select a construction manager (CM) based on qualifications; make the CM a member of a collaborative project team; centralize responsibility for construction under a single contrac

32、t; obtain a bonded guaranteed maximum price; produce a more manageable, predictable project; save time and money; an</p><p>  CM at Risk, a more professional approach to construction, is taking its place alo

33、ng with design-build, bridging and the more traditional process of design-bid-build as an established method of project delivery.</p><p>  The AE can review the CM’s approach to the work, making helpful reco

34、mmendations. The CM is allowed to take bids or proposals from subcontractors during completion of contract documents, prior to the guaranteed maximum price (GMP), which reduces the CM’s risk and provides useful input to

35、design. The procedure is more methodical, manageable, predictable and less risky for all.</p><p>  The procurement of construction is also more business-like. Each trade contractor has a fair shot at being t

36、he low bidder without fear of bid shopping. Each must deliver the best to get the projec. Competition in the community is more equitable: all subcontractors have a fair shot at the work .</p><p>  A continge

37、ncy within the GMP covers unexpected but justifiable costs, and a contingency above the GMP allows for client changes. As long as the subcontractors are within the GMP they are reimbursed to the CM, so the CM represents

38、the client in negotiating inevitable changes with subcontractors.</p><p>  There can be similar problems where each party in a project is separately insured. For this reason a move towards project insurance

39、is recommended. The traditional approach reinforces adversarial attitudes, and even provides incentives for people to overlook or conceal risks in an attempt to avoid or transfer responsibility. </p><p>  A

40、contingency within the GMP covers unexpected but justifiable costs, and a contingency above the GMP allows for client changes. As long as the subcontractors are within the GMP they are reimbursed to the CM, so the CM rep

41、resents the client in negotiating inevitable changes with subcontractors.</p><p>  There can be similar problems where each party in a project is separately insured. For this reason a move towards project in

42、surance is recommended. The traditional approach reinforces adversarial attitudes, and even provides incentives for people to overlook or conceal risks in an attempt to avoid or transfer responsibility. </p><p

43、>  It was reasonable to assume that between them the defects should have been detected earlier and rectified in good time before the partial roof failure. It did appear justified for the plaintiff to have brought a ne

44、gligence claim against both the contractor and the architects.</p><p>  In many projects clients do not understand the importance of their role in facilitating cooperation and coordination; the design is pre

45、pared without discussion between designers, manufacturers, suppliers and contractors. This means that the designer can not take advantage of suppliers’ or contractors’ knowledge of build ability or maintenance requiremen

46、ts and the impact these have on sustainability, the total cost of ownership or health and safety .</p><p>  This risk analysis was able to facilitate, through its multi-dimensional approach to a critical exa

47、mination of a construction problem, the identification of an effective risk management strategy for future construction projects. This work also served to emphasize the point that clients are becoming more demanding, mor

48、e discerning, and less willing to accept risk without recompense. They do not want surprises, and are more likely to engage in litigation when things go wrong.</p><p>  國(guó)際建設(shè)工程風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析</p><p>  保羅 斯坦

49、福 庫(kù)帕庫(kù)娃娜</p><p>  工程造價(jià)卷 第五十一期 2009年9月9日</p><p><b>  摘要</b></p><p>  此次分析用實(shí)例研究方法分析津巴布韋標(biāo)準(zhǔn)協(xié)會(huì)總部(SAZ)的屋頂部分坍塌的問(wèn)題。特別是,它審查了建設(shè)專業(yè)隊(duì)伍發(fā)揮的事先作用。分析顯示,津巴布韋標(biāo)準(zhǔn)協(xié)會(huì)總部的傳統(tǒng)建筑工程普遍具有高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的特點(diǎn)。一個(gè)明顯失敗的跡

50、象,是由原告所聲稱的承包商和建筑師們?cè)陬A(yù)防和/或緩解可能發(fā)生的建設(shè)問(wèn)題上是失敗的。推斷在部分屋頂坍塌之前兩者之間的缺陷應(yīng)該及早發(fā)現(xiàn)并及時(shí)糾正是合理。原告有理由對(duì)承包者和建筑師雙方帶來(lái)的疏忽索賠看來(lái)是合乎情理的。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析,通過(guò)多方位方法分析建設(shè)問(wèn)題的決定性查問(wèn),使有效風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理策略對(duì)失敗建設(shè)問(wèn)題的鑒定容易。越強(qiáng)調(diào)服務(wù)的重點(diǎn),委托方的要求越來(lái)越高,挑剔越來(lái)越多,并不太愿意接受沒有賠償?shù)娘L(fēng)險(xiǎn)。委托方不想要驚喜,并且當(dāng)事情出現(xiàn)問(wèn)題更可能去訴訟。&

51、lt;/p><p>  關(guān)鍵詞:仲裁,索賠,建設(shè),合同,訴訟,工程和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)</p><p>  加強(qiáng)的混凝土構(gòu)件的結(jié)構(gòu)設(shè)計(jì)由KP咨詢工程師設(shè)計(jì)。工料測(cè)量服務(wù)由HLB提供。該合同授予非洲中心建筑公司(CABCO),該公司也負(fù)責(zé)提供采用專利的“四人幫釘”屋架屋頂結(jié)構(gòu)。建筑建設(shè)完工后,于1991年9月12日移交給業(yè)主。津巴布韋標(biāo)準(zhǔn)協(xié)會(huì)總部實(shí)際接受了對(duì)沒有占有證書的總部房屋的占有。另外,不合格責(zé)任期只有

52、3個(gè)月。</p><p>  屋頂結(jié)構(gòu)在1999年12月局部坍塌前已經(jīng)用了10年。該房屋并不在保險(xiǎn)范圍內(nèi),哈拉雷城市,一個(gè)政府自治區(qū), 10年之后下發(fā)了占有證書,并且是在部分屋頂坍塌之后。</p><p>  起初津巴布韋標(biāo)準(zhǔn)協(xié)會(huì)總部決定去仲裁, 但未能產(chǎn)生一個(gè)即時(shí)的解決辦法。津巴布韋標(biāo)準(zhǔn)協(xié)會(huì)總部然后決定在法庭上進(jìn)行對(duì)簿,并且因?yàn)榉侵拗行慕ㄖ镜氖韬鱿蚍侵拗行慕ㄖ舅髻r。準(zhǔn)備為仲裁再次

53、訴訟。津巴布韋標(biāo)準(zhǔn)協(xié)會(huì)總部的量化損失大約為600萬(wàn)津巴布韋幣(折合120萬(wàn)美元)。</p><p>  所有當(dāng)事人都已檢查了這個(gè)事實(shí),并且在他們證明之前,很明顯有一個(gè)很大的可能那就是法院也許裁定建筑師和施工方都有責(zé)任。正是在這個(gè)階段,被告的律師請(qǐng)求將這個(gè)問(wèn)題達(dá)成庭外和解。原告同意了這項(xiàng)建議,并同意對(duì)和解的條款保密。</p><p>  此項(xiàng)重要分析的目的是圍繞住房標(biāo)準(zhǔn)分析津巴布韋協(xié)會(huì)總部房

54、屋的部分屋頂坍塌問(wèn)題。此項(xiàng)分析調(diào)查了工程管理的作用和建設(shè)專業(yè)人士在預(yù)防/緩解潛在的建設(shè)問(wèn)題中發(fā)揮的重要作用。它進(jìn)一步對(duì)雇主/承包方和當(dāng)事人在建設(shè)合同下彌補(bǔ)損害賠償進(jìn)行了評(píng)估。這種重要的分析的主要目的是確定一種未來(lái)建設(shè)工程風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的有效策略。這項(xiàng)研究的重要性在于它多方面的審查方式。</p><p>  經(jīng)驗(yàn)表明,一個(gè)工程的參與者以自己的經(jīng)驗(yàn)為基礎(chǔ)也能夠很好的識(shí)別出風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。僅采用建立在過(guò)去的經(jīng)驗(yàn)和判斷的基礎(chǔ)上的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理

55、方法,可以很好地并合理地在穩(wěn)定的低風(fēng)險(xiǎn)環(huán)境中工作。在有變化的地方這是不可能有效的。這是因?yàn)樾枰淖円酝慕?jīng)驗(yàn)推斷,這可能會(huì)產(chǎn)生誤導(dǎo)。所有建設(shè)工程都在一定程度上暗示原型和改變。建筑行業(yè)本身的變化表明,過(guò)去的經(jīng)驗(yàn)是不可能自行足夠的。一個(gè)結(jié)構(gòu)化的方法是必需的。這種結(jié)構(gòu)不能,并且絕對(duì)不能取代參與者的經(jīng)驗(yàn)和專業(yè)知識(shí)。相反,它帶來(lái)額外的好處,幫助澄清了目標(biāo),確定了不確定性的性質(zhì),介紹了有效的溝通制度,提高了決策,介紹了有效的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制措施,保障了項(xiàng)目

56、目標(biāo)和提供了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)教訓(xùn)知識(shí)。</p><p>  建筑專業(yè)人員需要知道如何用他們具體的合同,財(cái)務(wù),業(yè)務(wù)和組織需求平衡不可預(yù)見的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。許多建筑專業(yè)人士鼠目寸光的看個(gè)人的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),并且沒有意識(shí)到其他相關(guān)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)可能對(duì)他們的業(yè)務(wù)產(chǎn)生潛在影響。用全面的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理方法,能使一個(gè)公司確定該組織的業(yè)務(wù)的所有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。用總風(fēng)險(xiǎn)排除的最大目標(biāo),會(huì)增加減輕風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的概率。</p><p>  為未來(lái)的建筑工程推薦的關(guān)鍵建設(shè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)

57、策略已經(jīng)被考慮,并且它們的解釋如下。Hinchey J.W.聲稱在一個(gè)高利潤(rùn)的工程中不可能存在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分配問(wèn)題的最佳實(shí)踐標(biāo)準(zhǔn),任何工程都是這樣的。他說(shuō),相反的,成功的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理是一種心態(tài)也是一個(gè)過(guò)程。根據(jù)Hinchey,對(duì)一個(gè)特定的項(xiàng)目,理想的心態(tài)的當(dāng)事人及其代表者,首先在有意的關(guān)于工程項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別中,然后是在發(fā)展系統(tǒng)和理解的過(guò)程中,通過(guò)合同避免,緩解,管理和最終分配這些風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的最佳方式。據(jù)說(shuō)這個(gè)過(guò)程需要以一種科學(xué)形式開始并且以一種藝術(shù)形式結(jié)束

58、。</p><p>  根據(jù)D. Atkinson,無(wú)論承包商還是顧問(wèn),正確的團(tuán)隊(duì)需要集合有關(guān)的多學(xué)科經(jīng)驗(yàn)的項(xiàng)目特殊類型和位置。這被認(rèn)為是必要的,不僅僅允許其他反應(yīng)加以探討。而且,以確保正確的問(wèn)題被問(wèn)和主要風(fēng)險(xiǎn)被鑒定。能源危機(jī)首長(zhǎng)據(jù)說(shuō)對(duì)項(xiàng)目的部分參與者提供一個(gè)方便的結(jié)構(gòu)化風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別的方法。有效的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理?yè)?jù)說(shuō)還需要多學(xué)科的方法。不可避免的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理需要工程,法律和相關(guān)保險(xiǎn)檢查。</p><p>

59、  據(jù)指出,以統(tǒng)計(jì)方法為基礎(chǔ)的分析技術(shù)應(yīng)廣泛應(yīng)用在決策制定上。這些技術(shù)被認(rèn)為與許多風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事件的后果的估計(jì)有關(guān),而不是如何實(shí)現(xiàn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的分擔(dān)。此外,在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的發(fā)展階段,阿特金森(Atkinson)聲稱制定重大決策而不能僅僅基于數(shù)學(xué)分析的狀態(tài)。建設(shè)工程的復(fù)雜性意味著,無(wú)論在物理形態(tài)還是組織結(jié)構(gòu)上將項(xiàng)目定義為僅考慮相對(duì)較小數(shù)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。據(jù)說(shuō)這則一般的結(jié)構(gòu)化方法,可以適用于任何建設(shè)工程,以增加參與者的認(rèn)識(shí)。</p><p> 

60、 新的、簡(jiǎn)化的建筑設(shè)計(jì)和建設(shè)管理辦法(CDM條例),已于2007年4月在英國(guó)生效,修訂和匯集了CDM1994規(guī)范和建設(shè)健康安全和福利(CHSW)1996規(guī)范,而成為單一規(guī)范包。</p><p>  新的建筑設(shè)計(jì)和建設(shè)管理辦法提供了一個(gè)健康和安全性能的逐步改變的機(jī)會(huì),被用于再次強(qiáng)調(diào)健康,安全和良好的管理和協(xié)調(diào)以達(dá)到建設(shè)健康和安全管理更廣泛的商業(yè)利益的方法。我相信,這些技能的發(fā)展對(duì)業(yè)主提供最有效的便利服務(wù)是必要,使發(fā)

61、展最佳價(jià)值的項(xiàng)目成為可能。</p><p>  建設(shè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理(簡(jiǎn)稱CM at Risk),與建立工程承包私營(yíng)部門的方法類似,很受公共部門的歡迎。這是一個(gè)過(guò)程,允許業(yè)主選擇一個(gè)建立在資格基礎(chǔ)上的建設(shè)管理者(簡(jiǎn)稱CM);建立一個(gè)合作工程團(tuán)隊(duì);在建筑合同下集中工程責(zé)任;取得最高價(jià)格保證;產(chǎn)生更多可管理,可預(yù)測(cè)的工程;節(jié)省時(shí)間和金錢,并減少對(duì)業(yè)主,建筑師和建設(shè)管理者的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。</p><p>  建

62、設(shè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理,對(duì)建設(shè)更專業(yè)的方法,正在隨著設(shè)計(jì)建造,橋的設(shè)計(jì)和投標(biāo)建造為項(xiàng)目執(zhí)行過(guò)程中建立的方法的改變而改變傳統(tǒng)的地位。</p><p>  工程師可以瀏覽項(xiàng)目管理者的工作方法,并提供有益的建議。在完成合同文件之間允許項(xiàng)目管理者讓分包商投標(biāo)或提供建議,最高保證價(jià)格(GMP),從而降低了建設(shè)管理者的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),并提供有益的投入設(shè)計(jì)。該過(guò)程對(duì)所有相關(guān)者更有條理,易于管理,可預(yù)測(cè)和減少風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。</p><p&

63、gt;  這使得工程采購(gòu)也更加務(wù)實(shí)。每個(gè)行業(yè)的承包商沒有競(jìng)標(biāo)購(gòu)物的恐懼,公平目標(biāo)是成為低投標(biāo)人。每個(gè)人都必須提供最好地項(xiàng)目。社會(huì)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)是比較公平的:所有分包商有一個(gè)公平的工作目標(biāo)。</p><p>  不可預(yù)見費(fèi)包含在最高保證價(jià)中,涵蓋了意想不到的但是合乎情理的費(fèi)用,在最高保證價(jià)以上的不可預(yù)見費(fèi)允許為業(yè)主改變。只要分包商在最高保證價(jià)內(nèi)它們就被償還給建設(shè)管理者,因此建設(shè)管理者代表業(yè)主和分包商談判變更事項(xiàng)。</

64、p><p>  在項(xiàng)目里每一方單獨(dú)投保存在類似的問(wèn)題。因?yàn)檫@個(gè)原因,工程保險(xiǎn)是被推薦的。傳統(tǒng)的方法增加了反對(duì)的態(tài)度,甚至提供給人們忽略或者隱瞞風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的動(dòng)機(jī),以企圖避免或者轉(zhuǎn)移責(zé)任。</p><p>  許多項(xiàng)目中的業(yè)主不理解他們?cè)诖龠M(jìn)合作與協(xié)調(diào)中擔(dān)當(dāng)?shù)闹匾越巧?;沒有與設(shè)計(jì)師、制造商、供應(yīng)商、承包商進(jìn)行討論設(shè)計(jì)就已經(jīng)完成了。這意味著,設(shè)計(jì)師不能利用供應(yīng)商或承包商的房建能力或維護(hù)要求以及影響可持續(xù)

65、性、總成本,或健康和安全知識(shí)。</p><p>  推斷它們之間的缺陷應(yīng)該在部分屋頂坍塌之前及早發(fā)現(xiàn)并及時(shí)糾正是合理的。因此原告對(duì)承包者和建筑師疏忽的索賠是理所當(dāng)然的。</p><p>  這種風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析能夠更容易,通過(guò)它的多方位方法對(duì)建設(shè)問(wèn)題做重要的檢查,為未來(lái)建設(shè)項(xiàng)目做一個(gè)有效的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理策略的鑒定。這項(xiàng)工作還有助于強(qiáng)調(diào)一點(diǎn),就是業(yè)主的要求越來(lái)越高,挑剔越來(lái)越多,并不太愿意接受沒有賠償?shù)娘L(fēng)

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