大蕭條中的就業(yè)家庭信貸供給的重要性如何（英文）_第1頁(yè)
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1、FinanceEconomicsDiscussionSeriesDivisionsofResearchGuerrieriLenzoni2017)householdwth(MianSufi2014GiroudMueller2015)increasesinuncertainty(Bakeretal.2016Bloom2014).Thegoalofthispaperistoisolateempiricallyassessthecreditsu

2、pplyhypothesis:towhatextentdidreductionsincreditsupplyplayacausalindependentroleinexplainingthejoblossesthatoccurredintheperiod20072010TodosoImeasureplausiblyexogenousvariationincreditsupply(specificallyfmtgages)atthecou

3、ntylevelbasedontheinteractionofprerecessioncountylendermarketshareswhichmeasuretheimptanceofeachlendertoeachlocalityimmediatelypritotherecessionheterogeneousaggregatelendershocksduringtherecession.Thecountylevelestimates

4、showthatthereductioninmtgagesupplynegativelyaffectedthehealthofresidentialmarketsleadingtodeclinesinhomebuyinghomepricesemploymentintheconstructionsectinotherindustrieslessdirectlylinkedtorealestatethejoblossesweremuchme

5、mutedclosetozero.Apartialequilibriumaggregationexercisesuggeststhatthedeclineinmtgagesupplycouldexplaincloseto13percentofthetotaljoblossesduringtherecessionabout1millionofthetotaljobslost.Thestartingpointofthispaperisthe

6、observationthatthereisastrongOLSassociationbetweendeclinesinlocalemploymentmtgagecreditissuanceduringtherecession.Thissuggeststhatreductionsinmtgagesupplycouldhaveplayedanimptantroleindrivingthejoblosses.OntheotherhtheOL

7、Sassociationcouldbeentirelydrivenbyreversecausality–declinesinlocalemploymenteconomicactivitycouldhaveledtothedeclineinmtgageissuance.ToisolatetheeffectsofreductionsinmtgagesupplyoneconomicactivityIconstructamtgagecredit

8、supplyinstrumentatthecountylevel.Theidentificationstrategyexploitsthewellknownfactinthemtgageliterature(discussedfurtherdocumentedinthepaper)thatcreditrelationshipsinthemtgagemarket–asinthecpatemarket–arepersistentnoteas

9、ilysubstitutable.11Marketsharesatthecountylenderlevelarehighlypersistentyearonyearfexample2005countylendersharesexplain2007sharesalmost1f1.Intherecessiontherewerefewcasesoflenderentryintonewlocalities:of20082010countylen

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