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1、數(shù)學(xué)建模第1頁(yè)AnalysisofincrowdedstampedeaccidentoflargescaleactivitiesAbstractTosolvetheproblemofcrowdedstampedeaccidentoflargescaleactivitiesinChina.Firstwewillsolveourproblem.Howtoreducecrowdedstampedeaccidentoflargescaleact

2、ivitiesinChinaWethroughmethodoffuzzysyntheticevaluationofcrowdedstampedeaccidentoflargescaleactivitiesinChinatosolvewhyaccidentincrowdedstampede.Establishmentcomprehensiveevaluationofcrowdedstampedeaccidentoflargescaleac

3、tivitiesbasedonFuzzyComprehensiveEvaluationModel.Fuzzycomprehensiveevaluationmethodisgivenwhenpublicplacesaretoomanypeopleinastampedeofprobabilitythefmingconditionsthattheanalysis.Besideswewillmodel2buildingstosettlement

4、it.Ontheonehwechoosethenmaldistributionmanycrowdedstampedeaccident’spopulationisfollownmaldistributionsowedecidetochooseit.Thenpeoplefollowunifmdistributionsuchasschoolsupermarkethospitalbus.It’salwaysbeinginourlife.mode

5、l2solvepeopleincrowdedstampedeaccidentoflargescaleactivitiesdistribution.Lastmodelabuildingaboutgeicalgithm.Westudyaboutmanycrowdedstampedeaccident’spopulationisfollownmaldistributionwhywedon’tchoosecrowdedstampedeaccide

6、nt’spopulationisfollowunifmdistributionBecausecrowdedstampedeaccident’spopulationisfollowunifmdistributionhardlyhaveCasualtieswedon’tchooseit.Wethroughgeicalgithmfindarelationthatpopulationdensitydeclinesowemakeaequalden

7、sitycontouraboutpopulationdensity.What’smewethroughequaldensitycontourcalculation.Findingmaximumcoverageaboutchannels.Solvinghowtomakepeopleleaveplacesoonest.model4couldestimationofpopulationdistributionthenkeydepartment

8、candecidetokeymeasuresthatToimpedethefcemovementofcrowdedstampedeaccidentoflargescaleactivities.數(shù)學(xué)建模第3頁(yè)thebetter.HoweverIfpopulationistoolargechoosingabestactionplanisveryimptant.What’smeitwillaffectthequalityofvisitwild

9、lifeexperience.Inconditionthecapacityofthesquareislimitedsoourjobistofindagoodsolutiontosolvetheseentireproblems.3Solvingtheproblemstepbystep3.1Overviewthesolutionofbasicmodel?step1:Inourpaperwefirstconsidertheproblem:An

10、alysisoftheCauseofStampedeAccidentinCrowdGatheredPlacereasons??step2:AfurtherstepwefocusonThereareseveralalternativestoinjuredvictims?step3:nextstepwefocusonGeicAlgithmModelofOptimalEvacuationRoutesDepartureTimeChoiceina

11、DynamicSystem?step4:Thefinalstepwetesttherobustnessofourbasicmodel.4BasicModelstep1:Inourpaperwefirstconsidertheproblem:AnalysisoftheCauseofStampedeAccidentinCrowdGatheredPlacereasons4.1Fuzzycomprehensiveevaluationmethod

12、Wechoose12indicatssuchaspopulationfactindex（）environmentalqualityobjective1U（）physicalindex（）infmationfacts（）transptationfact.（2U3U4U5U）Wemakeafuzzycomparisonmatrixofallindex.iiiBAR??populationfactindex10.780.180.04000.7

13、20.20.26000.340.510.10.030.020.30.550.130.020R?????????????=(0.4，0.25，0.15，0.2)1A111(0.60300.30850.12200.00850.0030)BAR???environmentalqualityobjective20.120.20.280.220.180.690.220.09000.020.020.230.270.42R???????????=(0

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