氣候變化對(duì)長(zhǎng)江中下游地區(qū)水稻生產(chǎn)的影響及適應(yīng)性研究.pdf

1、中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)科學(xué)院碩士學(xué)位論文氣候變化對(duì)長(zhǎng)江中下游地區(qū)水稻生產(chǎn)的影響及適應(yīng)性研究姓名：趙海燕申請(qǐng)學(xué)位級(jí)別：碩士專業(yè)：氣象學(xué)指導(dǎo)教師：許吟隆20060501AbstractTheaveragesurfketemperatureofeanhwasrecordedupby0602℃oVerthe20’“centuryandinChina05℃～08℃increasewasshowninthesameperiodGlobalclimatechang

2、ewiHa何色ctgreatlyenvironmental，ecolo酉calandsocialeconomicsystemssinceagricultureisoneofthemostsensitivesectorstoclimatechange，itisofsignificancetoevaluateimpactsofclimatechangeonrice(oneofmainthreefoodstufrcmp)Inordertore

3、ducetheha咖ofclimatechange，adaptabilitystudyisnecessary，whichsve叫importanttocropsupplysafetyinChinaRiceexperimentda七aandobservedmeteorologicaldataat48earlyricestationsand30middlericestationfrom19812003wereappliedt0analyze

4、therelationoftemper咖reandprecipitationandrjcecomponents，focusingonanalysisoft|1reestagesnowering，premiIkandlatemilkThepu耳loseofthestudywastoexploretheimpactsofhistoricalclimatechangeonriceelementsnwasgroundworkofimpactsa

5、ssessmentofclimatechangeinthefutureBasedonhistoricalanalysis，impacts0fclimatechangeon—cewereevaluatedFirstly’cropmodelwasValidatedusingriceexperimentdata；secondly，outputofPREcIs(ProVidingRegionaIclimatesforImpactsstydies

6、)drivenbyEcMwFreanalysisdata(ERA)wereemployedtocropmodeltovalidatethelinkageappmachofPRECISoutputswithcmpmodel；Thirdly，growthseasona11dyieldofriceatastationwereevaluatedunderA2andB2scenanosin2080s(2071—2100)；Finally，some

7、adaptjvemeasures，suchasadjustingplantingdate，cultiVatinga11dint∞ducingnewricetype，werepresentedbytheresultsofsimulation，Theconclusionsareasfollowing：1_Hjstoricalanalysis：rainhadnegatjvee髓ctoneanyriceats【agesofnoweringand

8、milkthi曲ertemperaturewouldbene白tearlyriceBesidesran，duratiVehottemperaturewouIdaddpercentageofundeVelopedgrainandpaniallydeVelopedgminofmiddIericeSohistorjcal910balwanningwoulda虢ctmiddlericeoVerthemiddleandloweroftheYan百

9、zeriVerII、，alidationoflinkageapproachofcropmodeIandPRECISoutput：Comparisonbetweensimulationandobservatjonindicatedthatt11eapproachofPRECIScoupledCERESRicewasfeasibleandcouldevaluatechangeofriceyieldandgro、vthseasonunderA

10、2andB2scenarios111Climatechangeimpactsassessment：UnderA2andB2scenarios，growthseasonofricewouldbeshonened，themostshorteneddaysofearlyandmiddlericewouldbel8and25respectively：WiIhoutC02directe腩ct，earIyandmiddlericeyieldwoul

11、dbereduced17％～4l％(A2scenarjo)and9，0％～36O％(B2scenario)respectively；WilhC02directe艉ct，C02fenilizationefr音ctmayo仃etnegativeimpactsofclimatechangeon—ceandtheyieldofsomericestationwouldincreasethemostincreasewouldbe26O％(B2sce

12、na—o)IVAdaptabiIitystudy：AdvancingplantingdatewouIdbebene打cialtoearly—ceandpostponingthedatetomiddIe—ceYieldearlvandmiddlericewouldberosebvl66％a11d173％comDaredwithyieldunderthesamescena打os；increasjngthevalueofG4(temperat