熱力站負荷預報和節(jié)能監(jiān)控軟件設計.pdf

1、同濟大學軟件學院碩士學位論文熱力站負荷預報和節(jié)能監(jiān)控軟件設計姓名：李博申請學位級別：碩士專業(yè)：軟件工程指導教師：張晨曦劉依20090701AbstractABSTRACTThedissertationfocusesonheatloadforcastingofheatingsupplystationbasedontimeseriesforcastingmethodBecauseCentralheatinghasgraduallybecom

2、ethecityoneofthefoundationsofthenortherncitiesHowtomakethewholecentralheatingsysteminagoodandefficientoperationbecomemoreandmorenecessaryHoweverheatingloadwithacertaindegreeofrandomness，thetraditionaloperationofheatingsy

3、stemisonlybasedonweatherconditionsandworkexperiencetegulatetheheatsupplynetworkoperatingparameters，thustheaccuracyofitislessInthispaper’usesseveralmethodsoftimeseriesanalysisandreal—timedatacollectedintheheatingsystemtof

4、orecastthenextsamplingtimevaluesUsingitasthebasisforoptimalschedulingofheatingsystem，energy—efficientheatingsystemwillIUllandplayanimportantroleinrealtimecontr01Firstofall，thedissertationadoptstheoriginaldatacollectedinh

5、eatingsupplystationandmakesdatapreprocessingSecondlytheuseofhorizontal，vertical，cross—loadforecasting，multipleseasonalARIMAmodeloftheproductheatloadforecastingmethod，resultsshowedthattheapplicationoftheproductofthemultip

6、leseasonalARIMAmodelforecastingtheeffectsofgoodandbetterthanthepreviouspredictionalgorithmAtthesametime，themultipleseasonalARIMAmodelCanautomaticallycompletetheselectionorderFinallythemultipleseasonalARIMAmethodhasbeenap

7、pliedtocentralheatingsystemTheintelligentmanagementsoftwareincludestwoparts；thesearemonitoringsystemandforecastingsystem，andmonitoringsystemincludesdataprocessingsystems，usermanagementsystems，querysystems，input—outputsys

8、tems，securitysystem。Monitoringandmanagementinterfacewillbegivenalotofloadforecastingvalueoftheproposedrevision，SOthatoperatorsCanmonitormoreintuitiveadjustmentofheatingsystem，andguideheatingsystemtosaveenergyandtheseareo