外文文獻(xiàn)翻譯--國際外包對德國勞動力市場的影響（節(jié)選）

1、<p>　　2200單詞，12500英文字符,3200漢字</p><p>　　文獻(xiàn)出處：Bachmann R, Braun S. The impact of international outsourcing on labour market dynamics in Germany [J]. Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 2011, 58(1): 1-2

2、8.</p><p>　　http://www.wenku1.com/news/43185F8A7EB5B836.html</p><p><b>　　原文</b></p><p>　　THE IMPACT OF INTERNATIONAL OUTSOURCING ON LABOUR</p><p>　　MARKET D

3、YNAMICS IN GERMANY</p><p>　　Ronald Bachmann and Sebastian Braun</p><p><b>　　ABSTRACT</b></p><p>　　Using an administrative data set containing daily information on indivi

4、dual workers' employment histories, we investigate how workers' labour market transitions are affected by international outsourcing. In order to do so, we estimate hazard rate models for match separations, as wel

5、l as for worker flows from employment to another job, to unemployment, and to nonparticipation. Outsourcing has a positive but small impact on overall job stability in the manufacturing sector, and considerably increa<

6、;/p><p>　　Keywords: Job stability, labour market transitions; worker flows, outsourcing, duration analysis</p><p>　　INTRODUCTION</p><p>　　Fears of economic competition from low-wage co

7、untries are widespread among workers, trade unionists and politicians in many industrialized countries. The concern is that economies with relatively high labour costs are adversely affected by labour demand shifting tow

8、ards economies with lower labour costs, thereby reducing job stability and increasing unemployment. One mechanism which is suspected of leading to such an evolution is international outsourcing, which occurs when a domes

9、tic firm subco</p><p>　　While a number of theoretical papers has underlined the importance of international outsourcing for relative labour demand and factor prices (see, for instance, Feenstra and Hanson, 1

10、996a; Arndt, 1997; Deardorff, 2001; Kohler, 2004), no consensus has yet emerged in this regard. Depending on the specific modelling approach, low-skilled workers may lose or benefit from outsourcing. More importantly, th

11、ere are very few theoretical contributions which depart from the assumptions of full employment a</p><p>　　In this paper, we analyse the effects of international outsourcing on the dynamics of the German lab

12、our market, i.e., on the stability of job matches, as well as on worker flows. The case of Germany is particularly interesting for several reasons. First, Germany is the largest economy in the European Union. It is also

13、much more open to international trade than most other large developed economies, including Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States, and regularly features the highest level</p><p>　　We are not the fi

14、rst to analyse the effects of international outsourcing on the German labour market. However, while the existing literature is mostly concerned with job stability only, we additionally investigate the effects of internat

15、ional outsourcing on labour market dynamics by looking at worker flows. In particular, we focus on the three flows resulting from the separation of an employer–employee match: direct job-to-job transitions, the flow from

16、 employment to unemployment and the flow fr</p><p>　　Our analysis also takes into account the fact that international outsourcing increasingly affects sectors outside manufacturing, in particular the service

17、 sector. While until recently services were considered to be largely impervious to international competition, rapid developments in information and communication technology (ICT) have provided increasing opportunities fo

18、r international sourcing in the service sector as well. In this context, ICT allows for the coordination of tasks performed at</p><p>　　OUTSOURCING AND THE LABOUR MARKET IN THE LITERATURE</p><p>

19、;　　There now exists a sizeable empirical literature that investigates the labour market effects of international outsourcing. In particular, its impact on relative labour demand and the wage skill premium has been widely

20、 discussed (see, for instance, Feenstra and Hanson, 1996b, 1999 for the United States; Geishecker and Görg, 2008 for Germany; Hijzen et al., 2005 for the United Kingdom). However, the literature is much thinner when

21、 it comes to the effects on transitional labour market dynamics. At </p><p>　　Pfaffermayr et al. (2007) examine the importance of outsourcing (and trade) for the year-to-year transition probabilities of empl

22、oyment between sectors. Using a random sample of Austrian males, the authors estimate a multinomial logit model with fixed effects. They distinguish between six labour market states: employment in four different sectors,

23、 unemployment and out of the labour force. The individual data are matched with industry-level trade and outsourcing indicators that are, however, only</p><p>　　Munch (2010) analyses the effects of internati

24、onal outsourcing on individual job separations. The paper concentrates on the Danish manufacturing sector and combines individual yearly spell data with indicators for international outsourcing at the industry level. The

25、 estimation of a single-risk model documents a negative effect of outsourcing on the job separation rate. Distinguishing between job-to-job and job-to-unemployment transition flows, the author also estimates a competing

26、risk model. Ou</p><p>　　Using the same data set on individual workers' employment histories as we do in our analysis, as well as a data set on the tasks performed in an occupation, Baumgarten (2009) inve

27、stigates the effects of international outsourcing on the individual risk of leaving the occupation. He finds that the impact of international material outsourcing on occupational stability is slightly negative, while it

28、is positive for international service outsourcing. Furthermore, the effects depend on the nature of t</p><p>　　The paper at hand contributes to the existing literature on the effects of international outsour

29、cing on labour dynamics in several respects. First, we consider both the manufacturing and the service sector, and compare the effects outsourcing has in these two sectors. Second, we distinguish between the risks that g

30、o together with a match separation, namely the risks of making a job-to-job, a job-to-unemployment or a job-to-nonemployment transition. While Munch (2010) has implemented a similar fr</p><p>　　Narrow vs. wi

31、de outsourcing</p><p>　　We performed the same analysis for the manufacturing and the service sector using the wide outsourcing indicator. The results for the manufacturing sector are very similar when using

32、the wide rather than the narrow outsourcing concepts. The coefficient on the wide indicator is significant, and negative, for separations, for direct job-to-job transitions, and for the transition from employment to unem

33、ployment. In contrast to that, the hazard of exiting the labour market is significantly increased</p><p>　　While for services the results for wide and narrow outsourcing are therefore clearly very different,

34、 they could be due to the same underlying mechanism. As argued above, an increase in outsourcing is likely to increase productivity. This implies that firms are able to offer higher wages to their employees, which potent

35、ially reduces voluntary job-to-job transitions. This seems to be the case for narrow outsourcing. On the other hand, the increase in productivity can also decrease involuntary tran</p><p>　　CONCLUSION</p&

36、gt;<p>　　In this paper, we investigate the impact of international outsourcing on job stability as well as on worker flows from employment to another job, to unemployment and out of the labour force. Our analysis

37、focuses on the German manufacturing and service sectors during the time period 1991–2000 and uses a very large administrative micro data set covering 2% of German employees. Apart from the large size of the data set, its

38、 main advantages are that measurement error is likely to be very low and tha</p><p>　　Our paper thus contributes to the growing evidence that international outsourcing has no negative effects on aggregate la

39、bour market performance. However, we show that certain worker groups seem to be adversely affected. Furthermore, we demonstrate that there exist important differences in the effects of international outsourcing between t

40、he manufacturing and the service sectors, and that it is crucial to distinguish between different labour market transitions. The underlying reasons for these d</p><p><b>　　譯文</b></p><p

41、>　　國際外包對德國勞動力市場的影響</p><p>　　羅納德·巴赫曼；塞巴斯蒂安·布勞恩</p><p><b>　　摘要</b></p><p>　　本文使用的是一個數(shù)據(jù)集，包含工人的個人日常信息、就業(yè)歷史經(jīng)歷等，我們調(diào)查國際外包對工人勞動力市場的影響。為了完成研究目標(biāo)，我們預(yù)估了外包對工人的流動，從當(dāng)前工作到另

42、一份工作或失業(yè)的危險率模型。經(jīng)研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，外包對制造業(yè)工人勞動力沒有特別顯著的影響，工人整體上工作穩(wěn)定，不過在服務(wù)業(yè)企業(yè)中，工人的穩(wěn)定性明顯地得到了增加。此外，外包對勞動力市場的影響變動幅度很大，主要是工人的技能水平和年齡群體不同。特別是在制造業(yè)企業(yè)部門中，年紀(jì)偏大和技能水平中等的員工的失業(yè)率隨著國際外包的發(fā)展呈現(xiàn)明顯的上升趨勢。</p><p>　　關(guān)鍵詞：工作穩(wěn)定性；勞動力市場轉(zhuǎn)型；職工流動；外包；持續(xù)時間分析

43、 </p><p><b>　　引言</b></p><p>　　來自低工資國家的工人、工會會員和政治家們都普遍擔(dān)憂國家的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展及國際競爭力情況。他們的主要擔(dān)憂是經(jīng)濟(jì)較發(fā)達(dá)國家相對較高的勞動力成本對發(fā)展中國家的低勞動力市場轉(zhuǎn)型會造成不利的影響，從而會導(dǎo)致這些國家工人工作的不穩(wěn)定以及失業(yè)增加。國際外包，被懷疑是導(dǎo)致這種情況發(fā)生的原因，特別是當(dāng)國內(nèi)的公司將業(yè)務(wù)分包給另一

44、個國外的公司的時候，國際外包對于該國勞動力市場造成的影響很大。</p><p>　　雖然許多理論都強(qiáng)調(diào)國際外包相對勞動力需求和要素價格的重要性(例如，分斯特拉，漢森，1996；阿恩特，1997；迪爾多夫，2001；科勒，2004)，在這方面，理論界目前還沒有達(dá)成共識。根據(jù)特定的建模方法，低技能水平的工人可能會失去工作或者從外包中獲益。更重要的是，很少有相關(guān)的理論對充分就業(yè)和完美要素的流動性進(jìn)行研究，或是分析全球化

45、的短期動態(tài)生產(chǎn)過程，以及隨之而來的勞動力市場后果。一個值得注意的例子就是密特拉和蘭詹與2010年的研究文獻(xiàn)，他們通過一個兩分模型，分析了外包對失業(yè)率的影響。在這個模型中，在這個模型中將生成外包對勞動力市場的影響，外包對工人工資的增加或減少失業(yè)率的影響。這一研究結(jié)果與公眾的看法還是有所差異的，國際外包主要對就業(yè)方面產(chǎn)生的影響。然而，它符合經(jīng)濟(jì)合作與發(fā)展組織(OECD)的觀點(diǎn)，國際外包可能會引起就業(yè)增長或者增加公司的競爭力和生產(chǎn)力。艾格和科

46、瑞克梅爾最近研究了國際外包與不完善的勞動力市場模型。在模型設(shè)置中，外包可以促進(jìn)擴(kuò)大勞動密集型部門，另外，低技能工人的失業(yè)率也可以相應(yīng)的減少。 </p><p>　　本文中，我們主要分析了國際外包對德國勞動力市場動態(tài)、工作的穩(wěn)定性以及人員流動的影響。選擇德國的勞動力市場作為研究案例，主要有以下幾個原因：首先，德國是歐盟中最大的經(jīng)濟(jì)體。第二，相比于其他大多數(shù)的大型發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體,包括日本、英國和美國，它的國際貿(mào)易更加開放

47、，另外，它還長期處于全球出口的最高水平。第三，近年來，德國的國際外包得到了充分的發(fā)展。不過外包對于其制造業(yè)更重要性，在1990年代，服務(wù)業(yè)的增長速度就已經(jīng)相當(dāng)高了( 霍爾果斯，2009)。最后，有證據(jù)表明，德國曾經(jīng)經(jīng)歷了一個經(jīng)濟(jì)動蕩期，這也是其及頂級結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)型的經(jīng)歷之一 （巴赫曼和布爾達(dá)，2010)。國際外包的加速是這一發(fā)展所引起的附屬效應(yīng)。</p><p>　　我們的研究并不是第一次分析國際外包對德國的勞動力市場

48、影響，在這之前，已經(jīng)有人進(jìn)行了相關(guān)的研究。然而，現(xiàn)有文獻(xiàn)似乎大多是只關(guān)心工作穩(wěn)定性，我們則另外調(diào)查了國際外包對勞動力市場動態(tài)的影響，側(cè)重于工人流動方面。特別是，我們專注于雇主與雇員之間的流動分離情況，包括：直接就業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)換，就業(yè)失業(yè)和就業(yè)的流動。這三個勞動力市場過渡的區(qū)別是很重要的，因?yàn)槊恳粋€市場分離情況都有非常不同的原因和后果。例如，這種情況可能是由工人發(fā)起的，比如他找到了一份更好的工作。這將可能導(dǎo)致直接員工的就業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移。但也可能是員工被老

49、板解雇的情況，在這種情況下，工人失業(yè)的幾率相對較高，從失業(yè)到就業(yè)，這需要一個過渡期。工人甚至?xí)箽?，會離開勞動力市場。這些不同的就業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移都有其非常特殊的因素。為了評估國際外包對它們造成的后果，因此，對這三個就業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移情況進(jìn)行區(qū)分是至關(guān)重要的。</p><p>　　我們的分析也考慮這樣一個事實(shí)，即國際外包越來越多地影響著制造業(yè)以外的其他行業(yè)，特別是服務(wù)行業(yè)。而直到最近，服務(wù)行業(yè)才被認(rèn)為是基本上不受國際競爭的影響，電子

50、商務(wù)信息和通訊技術(shù)(ICT)的快速發(fā)展提供了服務(wù)業(yè)的國際采購機(jī)會。在這種背景下，電子商務(wù)信息和通訊技術(shù)允許協(xié)調(diào)不同區(qū)域的任務(wù)，便于傳輸指令信息和許可信息。例如，數(shù)據(jù)錄入和信息處理(IT服務(wù))、咨詢服務(wù)等，這些現(xiàn)在都可以通過互聯(lián)網(wǎng)進(jìn)行遠(yuǎn)程和電信視頻會議來實(shí)現(xiàn)。（經(jīng)合組織，2004)。</p><p>　　國際外包和勞動力市場相關(guān)的文獻(xiàn)綜述</p><p>　　帕發(fā)梅爾等人于2007年檢查了外

51、包(貿(mào)易)對就業(yè)領(lǐng)域的重要性。使用一個隨機(jī)樣本，選取奧地利的勞動力作為樣本，他們區(qū)分了六類勞動力市場狀態(tài)，在四個不同領(lǐng)域的勞動力就業(yè)失業(yè)情況，他們側(cè)重于研究制造業(yè)。研究表明，制造業(yè)勞動力市場可能隨著國際外包的水平上而保持或發(fā)生改變。</p><p>　　蒙奇(2010)分析了國際外包對個人工作就業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移情況的影響。本文集中研究的是丹麥的制造業(yè)，結(jié)合個人年度數(shù)據(jù)與國際外包產(chǎn)業(yè)水平指標(biāo)。單一風(fēng)險的估計(jì)模型用來分析外包對

52、員工工作的負(fù)面影響。區(qū)分直接轉(zhuǎn)移和間接轉(zhuǎn)移，作者還開發(fā)了競爭風(fēng)險模型。研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，外包減少了教育機(jī)構(gòu)的工作風(fēng)險率，不過低技能和年長工人的失業(yè)風(fēng)險增加了。蒙奇(2010)認(rèn)為，外包的短期調(diào)整成本很小。 在我們的分析中，使用相同的工人就業(yè)歷史數(shù)據(jù)集，鮑姆加滕(2009)調(diào)查了國際外包對個人轉(zhuǎn)移職業(yè)風(fēng)險的影響。他發(fā)現(xiàn)國際外包對職業(yè)的穩(wěn)定性影響有點(diǎn)消極，雖然國際服務(wù)外包本身是積極的。此外，執(zhí)行的效果取決于職業(yè)的性質(zhì)。</p><

53、;p>　　現(xiàn)有的很多文獻(xiàn)關(guān)于國際外包對勞動力市場的影響的文獻(xiàn)，主要集中在以下幾個方面：首先，有文獻(xiàn)考慮制造業(yè)和服務(wù)業(yè)并比較外包對這兩個行業(yè)領(lǐng)域的影響。第二，也有文獻(xiàn)區(qū)分三中不同分類的職業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移情況，即直接就業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移，崗位轉(zhuǎn)換，待業(yè)。而蒙奇(2010)已經(jīng)實(shí)現(xiàn)了類似的丹麥國家數(shù)據(jù)的一個分析框架，而德國沒有類似的研究。第三，研究的開展，要先對員工按不同年齡和技能及進(jìn)行分組。最后，我們的數(shù)據(jù)集包含的信息主要是工人每天的勞動力市場狀況，而不是

54、分析年度或每月的市場狀況。</p><p><b>　　窄外包和寬外包</b></p><p>　　我們也對制造業(yè)和服務(wù)業(yè)外包指標(biāo)做了相同的分析。寬外包對制造業(yè)有著非常相似的結(jié)果，而窄外包則不是。寬外包的勞動力市場指標(biāo)系數(shù)是顯著的、消極的。相比之下，在窄外包下，員工退出勞動力市場的風(fēng)險顯著地增加了，考慮到制造業(yè)兩個指標(biāo)之間巨大的相關(guān)性，結(jié)果似乎并不令人驚訝。然而，以往

55、的研究沒有發(fā)現(xiàn)寬外包對勞動力就業(yè)市場的顯著影響。</p><p>　　而對于廣義和狹義外包服務(wù)的結(jié)果，顯然是非常不同的。正如上文所說的，國際外包可能會提高企業(yè)的生產(chǎn)力。這意味著公司能夠?yàn)閱T工提供更高的工資，更好地待遇，從而能夠顯著減少員工自愿職業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移的風(fēng)險。這似乎是窄外包的獨(dú)有優(yōu)勢。另一方面，企業(yè)生產(chǎn)力的增加也可以減少非自愿轉(zhuǎn)換失業(yè)的風(fēng)險，這似乎是寬外包的優(yōu)勢。對比發(fā)現(xiàn)，可能是因?yàn)閷捦獍粫?dǎo)致任何直接的(負(fù)面)

56、的就業(yè)效應(yīng)。外包會促進(jìn)企業(yè)生產(chǎn)力的顯著增加，促進(jìn)就業(yè)增長，增加就業(yè)保障。因此，工人的職業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移風(fēng)險也會大大降低。</p><p><b>　　結(jié)論</b></p><p>　　在本文中，我們主要調(diào)查了國際外包對工人就業(yè)情況的影響，包括工作穩(wěn)定性以及流動性。我們的分析集中在德國的制造業(yè)和服務(wù)業(yè)，時間跨度為1991年 – 2000年這一時期，我們使用的數(shù)據(jù)很龐大，覆蓋2%的

57、德國員工數(shù)據(jù)集。使用大型數(shù)據(jù)集資料，其主要優(yōu)點(diǎn)是測量誤差可能會非常低，能夠反映最真實(shí)的勞動力市場情況。</p><p>　　經(jīng)過我們的研究，發(fā)現(xiàn)有越來越多的證據(jù)表明，國際外包對勞動力市場的總體性能沒有負(fù)面影響。然而，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，某些工人團(tuán)體似乎受到了不利影響。此外，我們還發(fā)現(xiàn)，國際外包在制造業(yè)和服務(wù)業(yè)，其產(chǎn)生的影響存在重要差異，關(guān)鍵是要區(qū)分不同的勞動力職業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移類型。這些差異的根本原因依然存在，然而，這是往后研究所需