外文翻譯-----物流金融的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估和早期預(yù)警系統(tǒng)

1、<p>　　本科畢業(yè)論文外文翻譯</p><p>　　外文題目：Risk Assessment and Early Warning System for Logistics Finance</p><p>　　出 處：2008年國(guó)際會(huì)議論文集—IEEE服務(wù)運(yùn)作，物流及信息 &l

2、t;/p><p>　　作 者：Xiao MeiDan, Li Ye, Liu Bin </p><p><b>　　原文：</b></p><p>　　Risk Assessment and Early Warning System for Logist

3、ics Finance</p><p>　　Abstract-Logistics finance is an innovative financial solution which combines goods flow with funds flow, with diverse benefits that appeal to buyers, sellers, logistics enterprises and

4、commercial banks. For example, Commercial banks can widen service ranges and enlarge the loans with lower risks and small and medium-sized enterprises can obtain working capital and speed up their development. Logistics

5、finance has attracted great attention in both academia and in business recently, but the logis</p><p>　　Keywords-logistics finance, early warning system</p><p>　　1. INTRODUCTION</p><p

6、>　　Logistics finance is the integration of physical flow and financial flow, with diverse benefits by focusing on servicing the different needs for logistics enterprises, commercial banks, small and medium-sized enter

7、prises, and insurance companies. Which improves the finance situations through solving the difficulty in financing for small and mediumsized enterprises and in providing loans for commercial banks, and bringing the great

8、 opportunities for the development of logistics industry in china.</p><p>　　The problem at present or next stage is to study on risk management of logistics finance in china.</p><p>　　For this r

9、easons, we derive the risk assessment and early warning system for logistics finance basing on the comprehensive evaluation of unascertained theory and fuzzy method.</p><p>　　2. THE MAIN CRITERIA AND TGEIR H

10、IERARCHICAL</p><p><b>　　STRUCTURE</b></p><p>　　According to the existing research results and Chinese actual situation, this paper selected the following five categories of criteria

11、(BI-BS) as crucial for evaluating the risk for logistics finance in china, These five factors are further divided into 16 concrete and detailed criteria (ClCl6) as follows:</p><p>　　Credit risk of the custom

12、er corporation (Bl):</p><p>　　Subjects related to the credit status and business scale of customer corporation which would influence on the repayment. This criterion is divided into: (Cl)Professional ability

13、 of customer enterprise;(C2)Credit rating of customer enterprise.</p><p>　　The collateral risk(B2):</p><p>　　Terms related to the factors of collateral as they affect the stability of the logist

14、ics finance. This criterion includes five factors:(C3)Ownership risk of pledge commodities;(C4) Supervision risk of pledge commodities;(CS) Fluctuation risk of market price of collateral;(C6) Liquidation venture of colla

15、teral;(C7) Whether buying insurance for pledge commodities.</p><p>　　Technical risk(B3):</p><p>　　Terms related to advanced technique of logistics enterprises. This criterion is explained by thr

16、ee factors, including:(C8)Conditions for establishing evaluation system of collateral value;(C9)Assessment technique of collateral value;(ClO)Operation technique for collateral.</p><p>　　Informatization risk

17、(B4):</p><p>　　Subjects related to informatization degree as they influence on information flow. This criterion is divided into:(Cll) Management technique of information system;(CI2) Investment on informatio

18、n.</p><p>　　External environment risk(BS):</p><p>　　Subjects related to the strategic aspects of macro and micro environment which would affect the stability of logistics finance. This criterion

19、 includes four factors:(C13) Macroeconomic policy;(CI4)Prospect of industry of logistics finance;(CIS)Condition for market change;(C1 6) Legal environment for logistics finance in china.</p><p>　　3. METHODO

20、LOGICA L ISSUES</p><p>　　According to the meaning of risk, risk R is expressed by the function by combining the occurrence probability of risk event( P) with the consequences caused by risk event( C). And th

21、e occurrence probability of risk event( P) and the consequences caused by risk event( C) are determined by unascertained theory and fuzzy method respectively, finally the total risk would be calculated by synthetic funct

22、ion of value P and value C.</p><p>　　After referencing to other literatures, risk grade can be classified into three grades. Usually, risk value above 0.7 shows risk grade is higher, when risk value lies bet

23、ween 0.3- 0.7illustrates risk grade is medium, and risk value below 0.3 shows risk grade is lower[51. The risk value of the logistics finance in this example is 0.6032 which belongs to 0.3 to 0.7, therefore, the logistic

24、s finance risk is medium, but is close to 0.7,requiring commercial banks and logistics enterprise to pay atten</p><p>　　Next, we analyze the risk value of five criteria and put forward the preventive measure

25、s on risk of logistics finance.</p><p>　　Firstly, the risk value of the Credit risk of the customer corporation(B1) is 0.6167 which is close to 0.7, illustrating that the risks of the professional ability of

26、 customer</p><p>　　enterprise(C1) and the credit rating of customer enterprise(C2) are relatively high,logistics enterprise should strengthen the credit and capability audit and supervision of customer enter

27、prises. When commercial bank or logisticsenterprise choose the coporators, they should avoid those companies which have weak professional ability and high asset-liability ratio, and observe the default of customer</p&

28、gt;<p>　　enterprises in history.</p><p>　　Secondly, the risk value of the collateral risk(B2) is 0.4861 shows that its risk degree is medium. Logistics enterprises can reduce the collateral risk by fo

29、llowing measures: First of all, logistics enterprise should ensure the owership of collateral, put an end to those smuggling and defective commodity as collateral; Secondly, it is important to standardize the manipulatio

30、n process of warehousing to reduce the commodity damaged; Thirdly, Utilizing the advanced methods to forecast the future p</p><p>　　Thirdly, the risk value of technical risk(B3) is 0.6574 which is near to 0.

31、7, illustrating that the technical risk is relatively higher for this logistics enterprise, so the logistics enterprise should pay more attention to their technical problem. In this paper, the technical problem is mainly

32、 refered to (C8)Conditions for establishing evaluation system of collateral value, (C9)Assessment technique of collateral value and (ClO)Operation technique for collateral. In order to improve the technica</p><

33、;p>　　Fourthly, the value of informatization risk(B4) is 0.4286 indicates the risk degree of this criterion is medium. Which shows the informatization level of this logistics enterprise is relatively higher, that is th

34、e scale and the management level of information system are a certain level.</p><p>　　Fifthly, the value of external environment risk(B5) is 0.8975 above 0.7, showing that the risk value of this factor is ver

35、y high. That is the macroeconomic policy and corresponding laws and regulations supporting logistics finance are very lack. Therefore, logistics enterprise should make contract with customer enterprises more carefully.&l

36、t;/p><p>　　4. CONCLUSIONS</p><p>　　Risk assessment of logistics project is the important content of risk management, and the logistics project risk is complexity and unascertained, this paper const

37、ructed evaluation model basing on unascertained theory and fuzzy method of logistics project risk, the model allows either interval number and absolutely value to describe evaluation data,which is more reasonable and rel

38、iable. </p><p>　　The proposed approaches can also be applied to many other societal problems for risk assessment purposes.</p><p>　　本科畢業(yè)論文外文翻譯</p><p>　　外文題目：Risk Assessment and Earl

39、y Warning System for Logistics Finance</p><p>　　出 處：2008年國(guó)際會(huì)議論文集——IEEE服務(wù)運(yùn)作，物流及信息 </p><p>　　作 者：Xiao MeiDan, Li Ye, Liu Bin </p>

40、<p><b>　　譯 文：</b></p><p>　　物流金融的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估和早期預(yù)警系統(tǒng)</p><p>　　摘要Introductionzaiyao摘要</p><p>　　物流金融是一種創(chuàng)新的金融服務(wù)，這種金融服務(wù)結(jié)合了貨物流與資金流，隨之帶來(lái)的不同的利益吸引買家，賣家，物流企業(yè)和商業(yè)銀行。例如，商業(yè)銀行可以擴(kuò)大服務(wù)范圍、增加

41、低風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的貸款，中小型企業(yè)可以取得營(yíng)運(yùn)資金并加快其發(fā)展。最近，物流金融收到了學(xué)術(shù)界和企業(yè)的高度重視，但物流金融的發(fā)展在中國(guó)只有幾年及其相關(guān)機(jī)制還不成熟，其參與主體多元化，隨之而來(lái)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)存在于物流金融的運(yùn)作中。因此，目前對(duì)物流金融的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)定量分析是非常有必要的。</p><p>　　關(guān)鍵詞：物流金融，早期預(yù)警系統(tǒng)</p><p><b>　　引言</b></p>

42、<p>　　物流金融融合了物理流程和資金流，通過(guò)聚集服務(wù)業(yè)中物理企業(yè)、商業(yè)銀行、中小企業(yè)和保險(xiǎn)公司的不同需求，帶來(lái)了不同的利益。物流金融這種金融機(jī)構(gòu)通過(guò)商業(yè)銀行提供的貸款解決了中小企業(yè)融資難的問(wèn)題，并給中國(guó)的的物流業(yè)的發(fā)展帶來(lái)了巨大的機(jī)遇。因此，物流金融收到了學(xué)術(shù)界和商界的高度重視，但物流金融的發(fā)展在中國(guó)只有幾年及其相關(guān)機(jī)制還不夠成熟，其參與主體多元化，隨之而來(lái)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)存在于物流金融運(yùn)作中。在中國(guó)，現(xiàn)有的文獻(xiàn)主要研究貿(mào)易業(yè)務(wù)

43、操作中的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)并建立物流金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指標(biāo)系統(tǒng)，它缺乏對(duì)物流金融的定量風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析。在中國(guó)，目前或下一階段的問(wèn)題是研究物流金融在管理方面的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。</p><p>　　由于這些原因，我們?cè)谖创_知綜合評(píng)價(jià)理論和模糊方法的基礎(chǔ)上得出了物流金融的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估和早期預(yù)警系統(tǒng)。</p><p>　　主要的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)和層次結(jié)構(gòu)</p><p>　　根據(jù)現(xiàn)有的研究成果和中國(guó)實(shí)際情況，本文選擇了以下五個(gè)標(biāo)

44、準(zhǔn)（BI-BS）類別作為評(píng)價(jià)中國(guó)物流金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的關(guān)鍵，這五個(gè)因素進(jìn)一步劃分為16個(gè)具體和詳細(xì)的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)（ClCl6）如下：</p><p>　　對(duì)客戶的信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)公司（B1）:</p><p>　　相關(guān)的資信狀況和經(jīng)營(yíng)規(guī)模的主體這將影響客戶對(duì)公司的還款。這個(gè)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)分為：（C1）客戶企業(yè)的專業(yè)能力;（C2）客戶企業(yè)的信用評(píng)級(jí)。</p><p>　　抵押品的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)（B2）：<

45、/p><p>　　涉及抵押品的因素而言，根據(jù)它們影響物流金融的穩(wěn)定性。這個(gè)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)包括五個(gè)因素：（C3）抵押權(quán)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)商品;（C4）的監(jiān)管風(fēng)險(xiǎn)抵押商品;（CS）的市場(chǎng)價(jià)格波動(dòng)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)抵押品;（C6）的抵押品清算企業(yè);（C7）是否為保證商品的購(gòu)買保險(xiǎn)。</p><p><b>　　技術(shù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)（B3）：</b></p><p>　　有關(guān)物流的先進(jìn)技術(shù)條款企業(yè)這個(gè)

46、標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的解釋是三個(gè)因素，其中包括：（C8）建立評(píng)估系統(tǒng)條件抵押品價(jià)值;（C9）評(píng)估抵押品技術(shù)價(jià)值;（C10）技術(shù)操作的抵押品。</p><p>　　信息化風(fēng)險(xiǎn)（B4）：</p><p>　　有關(guān)他們的信息化程度的主體對(duì)信息流這一標(biāo)準(zhǔn)劃分為：（C11）管理的信息技術(shù)制度;（C12）在信息方面的投資。</p><p>　　外部環(huán)境的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)（B5）：</p>&

47、lt;p>　　有關(guān)宏觀和微觀環(huán)境的戰(zhàn)略方面的課題，會(huì)影響物流金融的穩(wěn)定性。這個(gè)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)包括四個(gè)因素：（C13）宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策；（CI4）展望物流金融業(yè)；（C15）市場(chǎng)情況.(C16)在中國(guó)，物流金融的法律環(huán)境。</p><p><b>　　解決問(wèn)題的方法</b></p><p>　　根據(jù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的含義，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)R是表示通過(guò)結(jié)合風(fēng)險(xiǎn)發(fā)生的概率函數(shù)事件（P）的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)與事件和所造成的

48、后果（R）。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事件發(fā)生概率（P）和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事件造成的后果（C）是由未確知理論和模糊方法分別決定的，最后總風(fēng)險(xiǎn)將通過(guò)合成功能計(jì)算P和值C值。</p><p>　　經(jīng)過(guò)參考其他文獻(xiàn),風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等級(jí)可分為三個(gè)等級(jí)。通常情況下，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)值高于0.7,顯示風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等級(jí)較高；當(dāng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)值介于0.3-0.7,說(shuō)明風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等級(jí)為中等；當(dāng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)值低于0.3，顯示風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等級(jí)較低。在這個(gè)例子中，物流金融的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)價(jià)值為0.6032，屬于0.3至0.7，因此，物流金融

49、的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等級(jí)是中等的。但接近0.7時(shí)，商業(yè)銀行和物流企業(yè)要即刻注意防止和控制風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。 </p><p>　　接下來(lái)，我們分析了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估的五個(gè)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，提出了對(duì)物流金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的防范措施。</p><p>　　首先，對(duì)客戶信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)價(jià)值公司（B1）的0.6167，接近0.7，說(shuō)明這對(duì)企業(yè)的顧客專業(yè)能力的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)企業(yè)（C1）和對(duì)客戶的信用評(píng)級(jí)企業(yè)（C2）相對(duì)較高，物流企業(yè)應(yīng)加強(qiáng)對(duì)客戶企業(yè)的信用、能力的審計(jì)

50、和監(jiān)督。當(dāng)商業(yè)銀行或物流企業(yè)選擇合作伙伴時(shí)，他們應(yīng)避免選擇那些專業(yè)能力薄弱的公司，高資產(chǎn)負(fù)債率的公司，有客戶違約歷史的企業(yè)。</p><p>　　其次，擔(dān)保品的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)值（B2）為0.4861表明，其危險(xiǎn)程度為中等。物流企業(yè)可以通過(guò)以下措施減少抵押品的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)：首先，物流企業(yè)應(yīng)確保抵押品的所有權(quán)，杜絕這些走私等有缺陷的商品作為抵押品。其次，重要的是規(guī)范倉(cāng)儲(chǔ)的操作過(guò)程，降低商品的損壞程度。第三，利用先進(jìn)的方法來(lái)預(yù)測(cè)抵押品的

51、未來(lái)價(jià)格并分析了抵押市場(chǎng)的穩(wěn)定性。最后，它是還保證抵押必要的措施，是為物流企業(yè)分散風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的最好方法。</p><p>　　第三，技術(shù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)（B3）的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)值是0.6574，接近0.7，說(shuō)明對(duì)于這個(gè)物流企業(yè)該技術(shù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是相對(duì)高的，所以物流企業(yè)應(yīng)更加注重提高他們的技術(shù)問(wèn)題。在這個(gè)文件中，技術(shù)問(wèn)題，主要是指（C8的）條件，建立評(píng)估抵押物的價(jià)值系統(tǒng)，（C9）評(píng)估抵押物價(jià)值和（C10）的操作技術(shù)方法的抵押品。為了提高技術(shù)問(wèn)題，物流

52、企業(yè)應(yīng)建立科學(xué)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理方法，引入和處理抵押品價(jià)值更合理的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估體系，運(yùn)用科學(xué)的評(píng)估方法來(lái)評(píng)估抵押物的價(jià)值。然后，要在機(jī)械操作和自動(dòng)化的關(guān)鍵方面反映先進(jìn)技術(shù)，這樣物流企業(yè)可以投資，以改善這些方面的技術(shù)問(wèn)題。 </p><p>　　第四，信息化風(fēng)險(xiǎn)（B4）值是0.4286表明了該標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)程度為中等。這表明這個(gè)物流企業(yè)的信息化水平相對(duì)較高，規(guī)模和信息系統(tǒng)的管理水平達(dá)到一定的水平。 </p><

53、p>　　第五，外部環(huán)境風(fēng)險(xiǎn)（B5）值在0.7以上為0.8975，顯示出這一因素的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)價(jià)值非常高。這是因?yàn)楹暧^經(jīng)濟(jì)政策和相應(yīng)的法律、法規(guī)配套物流金融的極度缺乏。因此，物流企業(yè)應(yīng)與客戶企業(yè)簽訂更仔細(xì)的合同。 </p><p><b>　　結(jié)論</b></p><p>　　物流項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估是風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的重要內(nèi)容，物流項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是復(fù)雜的和未確定的，本文構(gòu)建未確知評(píng)價(jià)模型的基