外貿外文翻譯---對中國外匯儲備快速增長的反思

1、<p><b>　　附錄</b></p><p>　　Rethinking Fast Growth in China’s Foreign Exchange Reserves</p><p>　　Yuanlong Wang</p><p>　　I．Introduction</p><p>　　Since2000

2、, China’s foreign exchange reserves have been growing fast. By the end of2001, China’s foreign exchange reserves had exceeded US$200bn and by the end of 2002 had reached US$286.4bn. By the end of2003, it had reached US$4

3、03.3bn and in 2004 it reached US$609.9bn. In l 999, China’s foreign exchange reserves accounted for l 5.6 percent of its GDP. The ratio has been growing continually and Was 36.88 percent of GDP by 2004, making China the

4、second largest foreign exchange reserve holder in t</p><p>　　China has reserves of US$771 bn by the end of June 2005. However, China has a larger ratio of foreign exchange reserve to GDP than Japan. In 2005,

5、 China’s ratio of foreign exchange reserve to GDP was 37 percent, whereas that of Japan was 18 percent. By the end of December 2005, China’s foreign exchange reserves had expanded further to reach US$818.87bn.</p>

6、<p>　　II．Cause of China’s Sustained High Growth</p><p>　　of Foreign Exchange Reserves</p><p>　　The main reason for China’s sustained fast-expanding foreign exchange reserves in recent year

7、s, is continual surpluses in the current and capital accounts of China’s balance of payments. In terms of sources, foreign exchange reserves can be divided into creditor’s rights-based reserve and debt-based reserve. The

8、 former is reserve from current accounts, whereas the latter is from the capital accounts．Foreign exchange reserves of developing countries are mainly composed of debt-based reserve. Sinc</p><p>　　It is note

9、worthy that since 2004, the expectation for renminbi appreciation has been growing continually and a large amount of speculative capital has swarmed in. The Central Bank has adopted a compulsory foreign exchange settleme

10、nt policy to maintain the relative stability of the renminbi exchange rate, which is an important factor behind expanding foreign exchange reserves. Seen from the current situation and the development trend in the near f

11、uture, the factors that have caused expansion of C</p><p>　　Admittedly, the sustained surpluses in the current and capital accounts of China’s balance of payments in recent years are the main reason for its

12、continually fast-expanding foreign exchange reserves. However, two fundamental factors are worth considering：(i) flaws in the formation of the renminbi exchange rate regime are the institutional root cause of sustained h

13、igh growth of foreign exchange reserves and (ii) the various theoretical misconceptions about China’s foreign exchange reserves have </p><p>　　In terms of institutional causes, the eruption of the 1997 Asian

14、 financial crisis held back the process of the China’s reform of the renminbi exchange rate regime.The renminbi came under great pressure to depreciate. To maintain the stability of the renminbi exchange rate, there was

15、a forced departure from the original“managed floating exchange rate regime.” In the wake of the crisis, the Chinese economy was afected by the global economic recession and worsening deflation, which has gradually ma<

16、/p><p>　　In terms of policy orientation, there have long been many theoretical misconceptions regarding the basic functions and roles of foreign exchange reserves：for example, that foreign exchange reserves equ

17、al economic strength, exaggeration of the function of foreign exchange reserves, and accumulating reserves without definite and justifiable reasons. All these factors have strongly pushed the sustained high growth of Chi

18、na’s foreign exchange reserves.</p><p>　　III．Analysis of the Theoretical Misconceptions on</p><p>　　China's Foreign Exchange Reserves</p><p>　　1．Regarding the Opinion that Forei

19、gn Exchange</p><p>　　Reserves Equal Economic Strength</p><p>　　Since the 1990s, there has been a popular opinion that the more foreign exchange reserves China has, the better it is, and that the

20、 growth of foreign exchange reserves reflects China’s economic strength and improvement of its international status. The rapid growth in foreign exchange reserves is seen as a sign of sound economic operation. In reality

21、, this is a biased viewpoint that fails to appreciate China’s actual economic condition．</p><p>　　Foreign exchange reserve is a balancing item for international payments, which is closely related to various

22、aspects of the economy and to changes in the world economy. In considering the rational scale of foreign exchange reserves, one must take into account various factors in the economy，including the scale and development pa

23、ce of the national economy, the level of economic opening up and foreign dependency, the level and structure of foreign trade development, the level of utilization of fore</p><p>　　In determining a rational

24、scale of foreign exchange reserves, China needs to be aware of the internationally accepted empirical standards, and to consider its own actual economic conditions, that is, the imperfect macroeconomic regulation system,

25、 unstable macroeconomy, imperfect market economic system, relatively fragile financial system and foreign exchange regime, and inconvertibility of the renminbi. In addition, China is undergoing economic transition and fa

26、ces many uncertainties. Therefore,</p><p>　　(1)Everything Needs to be “within Limits,”and so does the Scale of Foreign Exchange</p><p><b>　　Reserves</b></p><p>　　(2)The

27、Scale of Foreign Exchange Reserves does not Necessarily Represent the Overall Economic Strength of a Country</p><p>　　(3)In General, Growth of Foreign Exchange Reserves does not Necessarily have a Positive C

28、orrelation with Economic Operation</p><p>　　Exaggeration of the Function of Foreign Exchange Reserves</p><p>　　With the rapid development of financial globalization, the basic functions of forei

29、gn exchange reserve have also undergone changes. The demand for foreign exchange reserves is not only for transactions and risk prevention, but there is also “development-oriented demand'’. Especially in the case of

30、emerging-market countries, increasing attention is often paid to foreign exchange reserves as a way to boost public morale, strengthen international credibility, to improve financing capacity in the in</p><p&g

31、t;　　(1)Foreign Exchange Reserves can Only Adjust Temporary Imbalance of International Payments</p><p>　　It is only a temporary measure to use foreign exchange reserves to balance international payments. It i

32、s implemented only for saving time in domestic economic restructuring. When a country encounters a large amount of deficit in international payments over a relatively long period of time, although foreign exchange reserv

33、es can be used to intervene in the process, its role will be limited no matter how large the scale of the reserve is. If foreign exchange reserves were to diminish rapidly, publ</p><p>　　(2)Large-scale Forei

34、gn Exchange Reserves are not the Decisive Factor in the Prevention of Financial Crisis</p><p>　　The Asian financial crisis that broke out in the 1990s is a typical case for the study of modern financiaI cris

35、is. Some Asian economies became severely affected as a result of interest rate changes in international markets, increases in foreign debt, abnormal changes in international capital flow and the speculative attack by int

36、ernational hot money. Although those countries were all holding high level of foreign exchange reserves before the crisis burst out, they still could not manage to survi</p><p>　　China successfully survived

37、the Asian financial crisis. A rather popular view is that it was because of China’s high-level foreign exchange reserves. Such a view deserves discussion. Admittedly, China was able to make use of high-level foreign exch

38、ange reserves for the demand of transactions, crisis prevention and development. In particular, it did play an active role in bolstering confidence in the economic development. However, those were not the key factors. In

39、 fact, during the Asian financia</p><p>　　With China’s relatively stringent foreign exchange management, it is worth discussing the necessity to maintain a large pool of foreign exchange reserves as an anti-

40、withdrawal emergency fund. For example, consider whether high-level foreign exchange reserve can really help to improve the confidence of foreign investors. By the end of 2004, Japan had foreign exchange reserves of US$8

41、44.5bn, ranking first in the world. Chinese Taiwan，in the same period, owned US$240bn foreign exchange reserves and</p><p>　　3. Making Reserve “For the Reserve’s Sake”</p><p>　　Regarding China’s

42、 foreign exchange reserves, there is a theoretical misconception that leads to advocating reserve for reserve’s sake. This view is derived from the idea that foreign exchange reserves equal economic strength, and the vie

43、w that deifies the function of foreign exchange reserve. This view is manifested in two ways．</p><p>　　(1)Passive Holding of Foreign Exchange Reserves</p><p>　　Under the influence of the view th

44、at foreign exchange reserves equal economic strength, and the more reserves the better, some take a one-sided view that precautionary holding of foreign exchange reserves will avert peril, and reserves should not be used

45、 until the critical moment. As a result, foreign exchange reserves have in reality not been effectively utilized although there has been a large pool of them. Reflecting such a view, in the management of foreign exchange

46、 reserves, such factors as</p><p>　　(2)Taking the Increasing of Foreign Exchange Reserves as a Policy Objective</p><p>　　Foreign exchange reserves are the important part of a country’s monetary

47、policy. Change in reserves is an item for balancing international payments, and it is usually a result of intervention in the foreign exchange market by the central banks of various countries. Change in the reserve aims

48、to stabilize the exchange rate. Therefore, change in the foreign exchange reserve in itself is not a policy objective, but, rather, keeps the exchange rate stable to protect the export competitiveness of dom</p>&

49、lt;p>　　No doubt, the various theoretical misconceptions regarding the scale of China’s foreign exchange reserves are important factors in the country’s sustained rapid expansion of reserves, a mater that brews risk.&l

50、t;/p><p>　　IV．Adjustment of Foreign Exchange Reserve Policies</p><p>　　China’s foreign exchange reserves have maintained a high growth rate. Although large-scale foreign exchange reserves have stre

51、ngthened financial security, the security of the foreign exchange reserve asset itself is worrisome. China has paid a high price and shouldered high risks for its large pool of foreign exchange reserves. There are furthe

52、r high risks, such as loss of interest and the shrinking of the real value of its foreign exchange reserves. The large scale of foreign exchange reserves </p><p>　　1. Control the Scale of Foreign Exchange Re

53、serves</p><p>　　First, China’s foreign exchange reserves should be maintained at a reasonable leve1. From an international perspective, it is generally accepted that the minimum foreign exchange reserves sho

54、uld be able to sustain imports for at least 3months, a period that is considered the warning threshold. Based on intemational experience, the warning limit for the ratio of foreign exchange reserve to foreign debt balanc

55、e is 30 percent. From China’s point of view, its imports over 3 months in 2004 would have</p><p>　　Second, China needs to choose the appropriate time to adjust relevant macroeconomic</p><p>　　po

56、licies and strategies that have led to the sustained surplus in its balance of international payments, including foreign trade, foreign investment and industrial policies. Regarding trade policy, for instance, China has

57、long implemented the traditional trade strategy that is based on the basic principle of creating foreign exchange through exports. This has led to sustained trade surplus and rapid expansion of foreign exchange reserves,

58、 which not only exacerbates the pressure for renminbi appr</p><p>　　2. Strengthen Management of Foreign Exchange Reserves</p><p>　　In the current situation, apart from controlling the scale of f

59、oreign exchange reserves, it is more importan t for China to implement sound man agement and use of reserves. First, it should be well man aged so as to produce the maximum economic and social benefits. In managing forei

60、gn exchange reserves, besides reducing its adverse impacts on the macroeconomy, the most urgent task is to bring out the positive role of the large pool of renminbi deposits and foreign exchange reserves in boosting e<

61、;/p><p>　　對中國外匯儲備快速增長的反思</p><p><b>　　I．序言</b></p><p>　　從2000年起，中國的外匯儲備一直快速增長。2001年底，中國的外匯儲備已超過2000億美元；2002年底，達到2864億美元；2003年底，達到4030億美元；及至2004年底，這一數(shù)字已達到6099億美元。在1999年，中國的外匯

62、儲備占國內生產總值的15.6%。這一比例不斷增長，到2004年已經達到36.88%，至此中國已經成為僅次于日本的世界第二大外匯儲備國。根據日本財政部在2005年7月公布的數(shù)據顯示，到2005年6月底，日本的外匯儲備總額為8435億美元。</p><p>　　2005年6月底，中國的外匯儲備達到7710億美元。但中國的外匯儲備占國內生產總值的比例要大于日本。2005年，中國的外匯儲備占國內生產總值的37%，而日本是

63、18%。2005年12月底，中國的外匯儲備已經增長到8188.7億美元。</p><p>　　II．中國外匯儲備持續(xù)快速增長的原因</p><p>　　近年來中國外匯儲備持續(xù)快速增長的主要原因是中國國際收支平衡中經常項目和資本項目的長期盈余。從來源來看，外匯儲備可以分為以債權人權利為基礎的儲備和以債務為基礎的儲備。前者來自于經常項目，后者來自于資本項目。而發(fā)展中國家的外匯儲備主要是由以債務

64、為基礎的儲備構成。自20世紀90年代后半期以來，中國外匯儲備來源的結構發(fā)生了很大變化。從1994年到1996年，中國外匯儲備主要由以債務為基礎的儲備構成。所增長的外匯儲備主要來自于外國直接投資引起增加的資本項目。從1997年開始，中國外匯儲備的債權人權利部分開始不斷增長。不過，在2003-2004年間，以債務為基礎的儲備大幅反彈。在此期間，資本項目的盈余從2003年的527.26億美元激增到2004年的1106.6億美元，2004年中國

65、的外匯儲備增加了2066.81億美元。這與不斷增長的對人民幣升值的預期和追求投機收益的國際“熱錢”的涌入密切相關。</p><p>　　值得注意的是，自2004以來，對人民幣升值的預期不斷增長，同時大量投機資本蜂擁而至。中央銀行采取了強制性的外匯儲備結算政策來維持人民幣匯率的相對穩(wěn)定，而這正是外匯儲備增長的一個重要因素。從目前的狀況和近期的發(fā)展趨勢看來，造成中國外匯儲備增長的因素還將持續(xù)存在。</p>

66、<p>　　無可否認，近年來中國的國際收支平衡中，經常項目和資本項目的持續(xù)盈余是中國外匯儲備不斷快速增長的主要原因。不過，還有兩個基本因素值得考慮：（i）人民幣匯率制度形成中的缺陷是外匯儲備持續(xù)高速增長的體制根源；（ii）關于中國外匯儲備的各種理論誤解使得政策搖擺不定，也促使了中國外匯儲備的持續(xù)高速增長。</p><p>　　在體制根源方面，1997年爆發(fā)的亞洲金融危機抑制了中國人民幣匯率制度的改革

67、進程。當時人民幣承受了巨大的貶值壓力。為了維持人民幣匯率的穩(wěn)定性，中國不得不遠離原本的“可控制的浮動匯率制度”。危機結束后，中國經濟受到了全球經濟衰退和不斷惡化的通貨緊縮的影響，這使得人民幣匯率制度實際上轉變成為“與美元掛鉤的匯率制度”。除了外部影響，中國的宏觀經濟政策和戰(zhàn)略，例如有關外貿、外國資本、外匯儲備、和產業(yè)政策上的錯誤，也導致了人民幣匯率制度形成的畸變。這種畸變的一個明顯特征就是銀行的強制性外匯結售和封閉的銀行間外匯市場。在此

68、種體制框架之下，強制性外匯結售的執(zhí)行，經常項目的可兌換性，以及中央銀行對指定辦理外匯業(yè)務銀行的控制，都意味著銀行、企業(yè)和居民不能依照自己的意愿持有外匯。與此同時，中央銀行以國家外匯儲備的形式持有相當數(shù)量的外匯。這樣的安排必然會導致外匯儲備的持續(xù)加速增長。</p><p>　　在政策傾向方面，長期存在著許多對于外匯儲備的基本功能和作用的理論誤解：例如，將外匯儲備等同于經濟實力，夸大外匯儲備的功能，在沒有明確合理理由

69、的情況下積累外匯儲備。所有這些因素都有力的推動了中國外匯儲備的持續(xù)高速增長。</p><p>　　III．關于中國外匯儲備理論誤解的分析</p><p>　　關于外匯儲備等同于經濟實力的觀點</p><p>　　自20世紀90年代起，有一種很普遍的觀點：中國的外匯儲備越多越好，外匯儲備的增長反映著中國的經濟實力和國際地位的提高。外匯儲備的高速增長被看做是經濟運行良好

70、的標志。 事實上，這是一種不能正確評價中國實際經濟狀況的片面觀點。</p><p>　　外匯儲備是國際收支的一項平衡項目，它與本國經濟的各個方面和世界經濟的種種變化密切相關。在考慮外匯儲備的合理規(guī)模時，必須要考慮到本國經濟的各種因素，包括國民經濟的規(guī)模和發(fā)展速度，經濟開放和對外依賴的程度，外貿發(fā)展的水平和結構，國外投資的利用程度和國際融資的能力，經濟調整和規(guī)范的效率，以及外匯管理系統(tǒng)。從國際角度來看，發(fā)達國家擁有

71、更強的綜合實力和更好的宏觀經濟調控框架。他們本國的貨幣是可兌換的，并且可用于國際支付。因此他們對于外匯儲備的需求就相對較弱。與此相反，發(fā)展中國家受低發(fā)展水平和不完善的宏觀經濟調控系統(tǒng)的束縛，他們的外匯資源短缺，并且本國貨幣常常不能用于國際支付。因此它們在國際市場中的依賴性很高，對外匯儲備的需求也很大。</p><p>　　在決定外匯儲備的合理規(guī)模時，中國需要知道國際公認的經驗標準，需要考慮本國的實際經濟狀況:不完

72、善的宏觀經濟調控系統(tǒng)，不穩(wěn)定的宏觀經濟，不完善的市場經濟體系，相對脆弱的金融體系和外匯制度，以及人民幣的不可兌換性。另外，中國正在經歷經濟轉型，面臨著許多的不確定性，因此需要持有外匯儲備以備不時之需。</p><p>　　但這并不意味著擁有越多的外匯儲備，經濟就會越好，原因有以下幾點：</p><p>　　任何事情都需要有“度”，外匯儲備也不例外。</p><p>

73、　　外匯儲備的規(guī)模并不一定代表著一個國家的整體經濟實力。</p><p>　　一般說來，外匯儲備并不一定與經濟運行狀況成正比。</p><p>　　2. 對外匯儲備功能的夸大之詞</p><p>　　隨著金融全球化的快速發(fā)展，外匯儲備的基本功能也有了變化。對外匯儲備的需求不再僅僅是為了交易和風險防范，還出現(xiàn)了“以發(fā)展為導向的需求”。尤其是在新興市場國家，外匯儲備得到

74、了越來越多的關注，它已經變成了提高公眾士氣，加強國際信譽，改善在國際市場的融資能力，降低變革風險的一種方式。這種對外匯儲備的需求就被稱之為“以發(fā)展為導向的需求”，人們對于外匯儲備功能的理解有了一定的發(fā)展。過去，外匯儲備只被用來彌補國際收支赤字和維持本國貨幣匯率穩(wěn)定?，F(xiàn)在它被用作維護一個國家的國際聲譽和增強其在國際市場競爭優(yōu)勢的手段。然而，對于外匯儲備作用變化的片面理解形成了一個似是而非的觀點：外匯儲備數(shù)量上的變化是宏觀經濟是否運行良好的

75、一個重要的評判標準或信心指數(shù)。在這個觀點中，外匯儲備的主要功能并不在于它的效用，而在于它作為一項指數(shù)的作用。因此，漸漸形成了一種主流認識，認為一個國家擁有越多的外匯儲備越好。進而外匯儲備的功能被神化，它調節(jié)國際收支的作用被夸大。事實上，外匯儲備調節(jié)國際收支和防止金融危機發(fā)生的作用是有限的，并且僅限于以下兩個方面：</p><p>　?。?）外匯儲備只能調節(jié)暫時的國際收支失衡。</p><p&g

76、t;　　用外匯儲備來平衡國際收支只是一個臨時措施，它只能為國內經濟重組節(jié)省時間。如果一個國家在相對較長的時期內面臨高額的國際收支逆差，盡管外匯儲備可以用來干預這一過程，但不管這個國家的外匯儲備規(guī)模有多大，它的作用都是有限的。如果外匯儲備減少的太快，公眾的信心也許會崩潰，這可能會對國內經濟發(fā)展產生災難性的影響。</p><p>　?。?）大規(guī)模的外匯儲備并不是防止金融危機發(fā)生的決定性因素。</p>&

77、lt;p>　　20世紀90年代爆發(fā)的亞洲金融危機是研究現(xiàn)代金融危機的一個典型案例。由于國際市場的利率變化，外債的增加，國際資金流動的異常變化以及國際熱錢的投機性沖擊，一些亞洲國家的經濟受到了很大的影響。盡管那些國家在危機爆發(fā)前全都持有大量的外匯儲備，他們仍然不能在大量投機資本的沖擊下幸存。主要原因是這場危機的起因非常復雜，包括錯誤的政府政策，不斷惡化的經濟基礎，投資者信心和市場預期的突然變化，脆弱的金融體系以及金融監(jiān)管中的錯誤。而

78、根本原因是當時的大背景，即重塑的國際經濟格局，加速的金融全球化和自由化以及結構性問題，政策失誤，這些統(tǒng)統(tǒng)加劇了危機對這些經濟轉型國家的影響。所以，即使他們擁有大量的外匯儲備也無濟于事。</p><p>　　中國從亞洲金融危機中幸存了下來。一種比較普遍的觀點認為這是中國擁有大量外匯儲備的緣故。這種觀點值得探討。誠然，中國可以利用大筆的外匯儲備以滿足交易，防范危機和發(fā)展的需求。特別是外匯儲備的確在增強信心，發(fā)展經濟方

79、面發(fā)揮了積極的作用。但這些并不是中國幸存于亞洲金融危機的關鍵因素。事實上，在亞洲金融危機爆發(fā)期間，中國只有1500億美元的外匯儲備。同巨額的國際投機熱錢相比，這僅僅是滄海一粟，它防范金融危機的作用十分有限。中國幸存于亞洲金融危機的一個重要原因是中國尚未開放其資本市場，并嚴格控制其資本項目。幸虧有這樣一道“防火墻”，大規(guī)模的投機資本被擋在了門外。</p><p>　　鑒于中國相對嚴格的外匯管理制度，保持大量的外匯儲

80、備作為防提款緊急基金的必要性值得探討。例如，考慮一下大量的外匯儲備是否真的有助于增強外國投資者的信心。到2004年底，日本的外匯儲備為8445億美元，位列世界第一。中國臺灣同期的外匯儲備為2400億美元，而且其外匯儲備占國內生產總值的比率很高。但到目前為止，沒有數(shù)據顯示日本或臺灣對外國投資者有多少吸引力。相反，美國的外匯儲備只夠維持不到一個月的進口，這遠遠低于理論上的警戒線。盡管如此，沒有一個國家或個人會懷疑美國的國際支付能力。作為證明

81、，美國長期保持著他吸引外資的優(yōu)勢。1997年亞洲金融危機爆發(fā)時，受到影響的亞洲國家全都持有大量的外匯儲備，但沒有一個躲過了這場危機。</p><p><b>　　3．為了儲備而儲備</b></p><p>　　關于中國的外匯儲備，有一種理論上的誤解：提倡為了儲備而儲備。這種誤解起源于外匯儲備等同于經濟實力和將外匯儲備功能神化的觀點，表現(xiàn)在以下兩個方面：</p&g

82、t;<p>　?。?）被動持有外匯儲備</p><p>　　在外匯儲備等同于經濟實力，外匯儲備越多越好的觀點影響之下，有些人片面的認為預先持有外匯儲備能防止危險，并且不到緊急時刻不得使用。結果盡管中國擁有大量的外匯儲備，但實際上它們并沒有得到有效的利用?；谶@種觀點，外匯儲備管理中的經濟效益，社會效益，風險控制，運行效率，貨幣結構及其資產結構等因素統(tǒng)統(tǒng)都被忽略了。這使外匯儲備的管理變得僵硬死板。&l

83、t;/p><p>　　（2）將增加外匯儲備作為政策目標</p><p>　　外匯儲備是一個國家貨幣政策的重要組成部分。儲備的變化用于平衡國際收支，它通常是各國的中央銀行干預外匯市場的結果。改變儲備的目的是為了穩(wěn)定匯率。因此改變外匯儲備本身并不是政策目標，而是要保持匯率穩(wěn)定以保護本國企業(yè)的出口競爭力。這與促進經濟增長和確保充分就業(yè)的措施密切相關，而這兩者都是保持發(fā)展平衡的關鍵內部因素。顯然，改變

84、外匯儲備并不是貨幣政策的唯一目標。但在中國卻有將外匯儲備不斷增長作為政策目標的趨勢。</p><p>　　毫無疑問，關于中國外匯儲備規(guī)模的各種理論誤解是的中國外匯儲備持續(xù)快速增長的重要因素，并且正醞釀著風險。</p><p>　　IV．對外匯儲備政策的調整</p><p>　　中國的外匯儲備一直保持著高增長率。盡管大規(guī)模的外匯儲備加強了金融安全，但外匯儲備資產本身的

85、安全卻仍然令人擔憂。中國已經為其龐大的外匯儲備付出了高昂的代價，承擔了巨大的風險。還有更多的風險在等著，例如利息損失和外匯儲備實際價值的縮水。大規(guī)模的外匯儲備對中國的經濟發(fā)展已有一系列的不利影響，并且制造了風險。中國外匯儲備的現(xiàn)狀已經變成了威脅金融安全的一個重要隱患。因此，目前迫切需要調整中國的外匯儲備政策。</p><p>　　1.控制外匯儲備的規(guī)模</p><p>　　首先，中國的外匯

86、儲備應該保持在合理的水平內。國際上普遍認為，外匯儲備應該能夠維持至少3個月的進口，3個月是公認的警告閥值。依據國際經驗，外匯儲備占外債余額的警戒比率為30%。從中國的角度來看，2004年中國3個月的進口需要大約1400億美元的外匯儲備，但還需要700億美元來滿足外匯儲備占外債余額的警戒比率。如果考慮到外國投資者將利潤轉移到他們本國，金融改革以及其他不時之需，中國的外匯儲備規(guī)模應該大體保持在3000-4000億美元這樣一個合理的范圍內。&

87、lt;/p><p>　　其次，中國需要選擇一個合適的時機，對導致其國際收支持續(xù)順差的相關宏觀經濟政策和策略作出調整，包括外貿，國外投資和產業(yè)政策。例如，關于貿易政策，中國長期以來實行傳統(tǒng)的貿易戰(zhàn)略，即依據通過出口創(chuàng)造外匯的基本原則，這就導致了貿易的持續(xù)順差和外匯儲備的高速增長，不僅加劇了人民幣升值的壓力，還帶來了巨大的風險。此外，增強以人民幣匯率為基礎的決心，矯正其扭曲的形成機制，將會改善外匯市場，增強匯率靈活性和完

88、善匯率形成機制，這樣就能阻止外匯儲備的高速增長。毫無疑問，調整相關的宏觀經濟政策，包括外貿政策和策略，正是確保中國外匯儲備安全的需要。</p><p>　　2. 加強外匯儲備的管理</p><p>　　就目前的情況看來，除了要控制外匯儲備的規(guī)模，更重要的是中國要實施健全的外匯儲備管理和使用制度。首先，應當妥善管理外匯儲備，以便產生最大的經濟效益和社會效益。管理外匯儲備，除了要降低其對宏觀經