我國企業(yè)并購估價風(fēng)險的評價.pdf

1、華中科技大學(xué)碩士學(xué)位論文我國企業(yè)并購估價風(fēng)險的評價姓名：徐蓓申請學(xué)位級別：碩士專業(yè)：金融學(xué)指導(dǎo)教師：劉方池20060401IIAbstract In the process of M&A（Merger & Acquisition）, the inaccurate estimation of target enterprise’s value because of information asymmetry conclud

2、e two aspects, one is financial situation deterioration and finance achievement loss caused by overestimation of coordinated effect, the other is the failure of M&A and the loss of ahead investment caused by underest

3、imation of target corporation. Both of the possibility and uncertainty of these two conditions are called the evaluation risk of M&A, it is not only integrated reflection of all risks in M&A but also an important

4、 influence factor of success. First, a concrete analysis of the causes of the evaluation risk in M&A is made in this paper (mainly including localization and untruth of financial reports, information asymmetry, faul

5、tiness of evaluation methods, lag of agency institution development, etc.).Then Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Model, Artificial Neural Network Model and Value at Risk Model are compared with each other, it is believed t

6、hat VaR Model fit the appraisal on evaluation risk in M&A best. Finally a M&A cases is analyzed with BS(Black-Scholes) formula and VaR Model and several corresponding countermeasures to the control of the evaluat

7、ion risk in M&A are put forward. The economics mathematics research approach is mainly used in this paper, to quantize and appraise the evaluation risk in M&A, including the BS formula, Fuzzy Comprehensive Evalua

8、tion Model, Artificial Neural Network Model and VaR Model. The innovations of this paper are: the BS formula is brought in to estimate the value of targeted corporations in M&A, the main causations of evaluation risk

9、 in M&A are analyzed in an all-round way, the VaR Model is brought in to appraise the evaluation risk in M&A, two cases of M&A are analyzed with this two models, some suggestions are pointed out to keep the e