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1、外文翻譯EarlywarningmodelwithstatisticalanalysisproceduresinTurkishinsurancecompaniesMaterialSource:AfricanJournalofBusinessManagementAuth:IsseverogluGulsunGucenmeUmitInsurancecompaniesaresocialentitiesganizedtooffloadthefin

2、ancialrisksencounteredbyindividualsfirms.Individualspayapremiumgiventheoccurrenceofspecificeventsreceiveremunerationflossesincurred.Inadditioninsurancecompaniescontributesubstantiallytothenationaleconomybyusingcapitalgat

3、heredthroughpremiumsfinvestment.ThehighpotentialfinsurabilitytherapidimprovementoftheinsurancepensionsecthaveincreasedthevisibilityoftheTurkishinsurancemarkettofeigninvests.Sincetheinsurabilityratehasreachedasaturationpo

4、intinothercountriesfeigninvestsbeganincreasingtheirinvestmentsindevelopingcountriesbeginningin2006withthisinvestmentcontinuingtogrowin2007.Tofurtherincreasetheefficiencyefficacyofthenationalinsurancesectitisveryimptantto

5、examineanalysethesectpanyprofitabilitytrendsattractnotonlytheattentionoftheshareholdersbutalsotheattentionofinvestscreditsauditingfirms.Businessfailureisanunfavourablecostlyeventfsociety.Inanenvironmentwithlimitedresourc

6、esbusinessfailurecanmeanthemisallocationofresourcesresultinenmouseconomicsocialcosts.Whenafirmgoesbankruptshareholdersareusuallythebiggestlosers.Operationssuchasmeasuringevaluatingratingshouldbeperfmedindertobetterassess

7、aninsurancecompany’sfinancialpotential.Atrustwthyflowofincometothemarketwhichmightallowfincreasesindecisionspeedqualitymaybepossiblewiththeimplementationofratingapplications.Inadditionthedevelopmentofincreasinglysophisti

8、catedcomputertechnologieshasenabledtheuseofstatisticalmethodsinseveralresearchfields.InasimilarstudyIsseveroglu(2005)aimedtodevelopamultivariablemodeltopredictthestartingperiodoffinancialfailuresdifficultiesfenterprisesb

9、yapplyingmultidimensionalstatisticalanalysestotheTurkishinsurancesectthecashflowtototaldebtratiomisclassifiedonly13%ofthesamplefirms.Fiveyearsbefefailurethesameratiomisclassifiedonly22%.Sincetherewereanapproximatelyequal

10、numberoffailednonfailedfirmsinthesampletheexpectederrfromrompredictionwasapproximately50%.Therewasthusanextremelysmallprobabilitythatrompredictioncouldhavedoneaswellastheratio(Beaver1968).Thisanalysissuggestedthatfinanci

11、alratioscouldbeusefulinthepredictionoffailureuptofiveyearspritotheevent.EdwardI.Altmanaprimarycontributtothefinancialfailureliteraturechose33successfulunsuccessfulenterprisesbyromsamplingduringtheperiodof1946through1965.

12、Financialdatacoveringaperiodoffiveyears22financialratioswereanalysed.Fivefinancialratiosbestmeasuringthefinancialpowerwereobtainedasaresultoflineardifferentiationanalysis.Adiscriminantfunctionwithalinearcombinationoffive

13、ratioswasderivedfromdataoneyearpritobankruptcy.CalledtheZmodelthismodelwasderivedusingthepreviouslymentionedfiveratiosthedifferentiationsce.Itwascalculatedasfollows:Z=0.12X10.14X20.33X30.06X40.999X5Ashighas94%ofunsuccess

14、fulenterprisessuccessfulenterpriseswith97%accuracyratioswerecrectlyclassifiedfthefirstyearprecedingthefailure.Unsuccessfulenterpriseswereclassifiedwith72%exactitudefthesecondyearbefethefailure48%fthethirdyear29%fthefourt

15、h36%fthefifthyearconsecutively.Howevertheaccuracyofclassificationdeclinedrapidlyasthenumberofyearspritofailureincreased.Themodelhasbeenfoundtobepredictivealbeitwithdiminishingexactitudeasonemovesearlierintime.Thusadditio

16、nalrefinementofAltmansmodelisrequiredtoimprovetheaccuracyofearlieryearprediction.FinallyAltmanexaminedthepredictivevalidityofthemodelonanewsampleconsistingof25bankruptfirms66nonfailedfirmsinthesameperiodastheinitialsampl

17、e.Theresultindicated96%ofbankruptfirms79%ofnonbankruptfirmswerecrectlyclassifiedoneyearpritobankruptcy.AltmanwasthefirsttouseMDAtodevelopafailurepredictionmodel.AltmanobtainedtheZETAmodelbydevelopinghisfirstZmodelin1993(

18、Altman1993).SincethattimetheMDAmethodhasbeenextensivelyusedinbusinessfailurepredictionstudies.Hecompared53enterprisesthatwentbankrupt58enterprisesthatdidnotinsteadofclassifyingenterprisesassuccessfulunsuccessfulintheZETA

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