環(huán)保工程及服務(wù)行業(yè)融資望改善，督查促發(fā)展，龍頭迎機(jī)遇

1、內(nèi)容目錄一、環(huán)保行業(yè)2018年整體表現(xiàn)............................................................................41.行情回顧：跌幅較大，估值處于歷史底部..............................................................42.業(yè)績(jī)表現(xiàn)：去杠桿下增速回落，子板塊分化顯著..................

2、......................................5二、融資回款改善，PPP走向規(guī)范..........................................................................61.融資及回款雙重改善，壓制因素得緩解................................................................62.PPP走

3、向規(guī)范，利于優(yōu)質(zhì)PPP釋放....................................................................8三、環(huán)保監(jiān)管趨嚴(yán)，倒逼行業(yè)需求顯現(xiàn).....................................................................111.監(jiān)管趨嚴(yán)，倒逼環(huán)保需求顯現(xiàn)...................................

4、....................................112.各領(lǐng)域環(huán)保治理需求仍大...........................................................................151)大氣領(lǐng)域：排放標(biāo)準(zhǔn)趨嚴(yán)帶來(lái)增量空間...........................................................152)水務(wù)領(lǐng)域：十三五提標(biāo)

5、擴(kuò)容新周期，投資空間仍大.................................................173)垃圾焚燒領(lǐng)域：十三五期間垃圾焚燒增量空間仍大.................................................184)農(nóng)村環(huán)保領(lǐng)域：基礎(chǔ)較差，投資需求強(qiáng)烈.........................................................18四、競(jìng)

6、爭(zhēng)加劇，精選高景氣、高壁壘子行業(yè).................................................................191.競(jìng)爭(zhēng)格局惡化，高壁壘資產(chǎn)價(jià)值凸顯.................................................................191)跨界者涌入，高壁壘行業(yè)為優(yōu)選方向..................................

7、...........................192)參考海外，高壁壘子行業(yè)價(jià)值顯現(xiàn)...............................................................212.督查倒逼，供不應(yīng)求，危廢行業(yè)高景氣...............................................................231)危廢供需不匹配，監(jiān)管倒逼真實(shí)需求.......

8、......................................................232)行業(yè)格局“小散亂”，龍頭望脫穎而出.............................................................253.下沉空間廣闊，監(jiān)測(cè)需求仍大...................................................................

9、....281)政策推動(dòng)需求擴(kuò)張，監(jiān)測(cè)行業(yè)高景氣.............................................................282)監(jiān)測(cè)行業(yè)集中度提升，龍頭持續(xù)受益.............................................................30五、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)提示..............................................

10、.............................................31圖表目錄圖表1：年初以來(lái)環(huán)保板塊表現(xiàn)（%）.................................................................4圖表2：環(huán)保行業(yè)跌幅居行業(yè)倒數(shù)第一.................................................................4圖表3

11、：環(huán)保板塊整體收入利潤(rùn)增速...................................................................5圖表4：部分環(huán)保公司經(jīng)營(yíng)轉(zhuǎn)變.......................................................................5圖表5：細(xì)分行業(yè)歷年收入增速.......................................

12、................................6圖表6：細(xì)分行業(yè)歷年利潤(rùn)增速.......................................................................6圖表7：近期民企股權(quán)及融資市場(chǎng)改善.................................................................6圖表8：近期重要融資利好政策....

13、...................................................................7圖表9：市場(chǎng)利率下行（%）.........................................................................8圖表10：碧水源CRMW示意圖..................................................

14、.....................8圖表11：PPP各階段項(xiàng)目數(shù)變化（個(gè)）................................................................9圖表12：PPP項(xiàng)目投資額:生態(tài)建設(shè)和環(huán)境保護(hù)各階段（億元）............................................9圖表13：環(huán)保類PPP占項(xiàng)目數(shù)及融資額比例上行（億元）............

15、....................................9圖表14：近期PPP相關(guān)利好政策.....................................................................10圖表15：2016年基建資金來(lái)源......................................................................11()))(())

16、(((((((Ⅱ()(()(((()((()()()(())(((())Ⅱ()())(100102030405060一、環(huán)保行業(yè)2018年整體表現(xiàn)1.行情回顧：跌幅較大，估值處于歷史底部受去杠桿、PPP監(jiān)管趨嚴(yán)等影響，環(huán)保板塊2018年整體跌幅較大。環(huán)保行業(yè)自去杠桿以來(lái)信用擴(kuò)張受阻，前端融資不暢使得工程進(jìn)展緩慢、后端地方政府財(cái)政趨緊導(dǎo)致支付能力下降，使得環(huán)保企業(yè)現(xiàn)金流惡化、壞賬增加，故EPS、PE均有下調(diào)。截止2018年12月31日，環(huán)

17、保行業(yè)跌幅為48.1%，在申萬(wàn)35個(gè)行業(yè)中環(huán)保行業(yè)排行最后，跑輸大盤(pán)22.9個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，跑輸創(chuàng)業(yè)板18.5個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。此外，當(dāng)前環(huán)保板塊估值20.5倍，已下降至歷史低點(diǎn)，而近期一系列融資改善政策的出臺(tái)，板塊望受益，配置價(jià)值凸顯。圖表1：年初以來(lái)環(huán)保板塊表現(xiàn)（%）環(huán)保(中信)上證指數(shù)滬深300創(chuàng)業(yè)板指20資料來(lái)源：wind、圖表2：環(huán)保行業(yè)跌幅居行業(yè)倒數(shù)第一0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%銀休燃非醫(yī)計(jì)電上滬食農(nóng)鋼