2018年年度策略報告穿透迷霧，尋找未來

1、目錄目錄1、2018年市場回顧...................................................................................52、市場關心的三只靴子...............................................................................62.1經(jīng)濟增速下滑.....................

2、..............................................................62.2中美貿(mào)易摩擦..................................................................................172.3全球流動性拐點到來....................................................

3、........................213、市場正在發(fā)生的三個積極變化......................................................................273.1股票市場基礎制度不斷完善......................................................................273.2投資者結(jié)構(gòu)發(fā)生改變........

4、....................................................................293.3股票市場的機會成本下降........................................................................314、穿透迷霧，尋找未來...................................................

5、...........................324.1A股歷史上的大底部.............................................................................324.2A股歷史底部特征的啟示.........................................................................374.32019年市場走

6、勢展望............................................................................395、2019年市場熱點與行業(yè)配置展望....................................................................405.1科技成長行情有望貫穿全年....................................

7、..................................415.2金融板塊戰(zhàn)略配置價值顯現(xiàn)......................................................................445.3消費板塊有望繼續(xù)獲得外資青睞.................................................................455.4周期性板塊存在預期差

8、糾偏的機會................................................................46圖表1：2018年主要經(jīng)濟體股票市場表現(xiàn)............................................................5圖表2：2018年A股主要指數(shù)走勢圖..................................................

9、..............5圖表3：申萬一級行業(yè)漲跌幅......................................................................6圖表4：GDP增速（）............................................................................7圖表5：工業(yè)增加值（）......................

10、...................................................7圖表6：中采PMI.................................................................................7圖表7：社融規(guī)模增速（）.................................................................

11、......7圖表8：三大需求對GDP增長貢獻率（）...........................................................8圖表9：制造業(yè)投資增速（）.....................................................................8圖表10：房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)投資增速（）...................................

12、.............................8圖表11：制造業(yè)中創(chuàng)新科技行業(yè)投資增速（）......................................................9圖表12：制造業(yè)中上游行業(yè)投資增速（）..........................................................9圖表13：房地產(chǎn)投資增速與銷售增速（）.................

13、.........................................9圖表14：2017年固定資產(chǎn)投資各分項占比...........................................................9圖表15：基建投資增速（）.....................................................................10圖表16：固定資產(chǎn)投資增速

14、（）.................................................................10圖表17：出口同比（）.........................................................................10圖表18：新出口訂單指數(shù).....................................................

15、...................10圖表19：2018年6月份以來人民幣快速貶值........................................................11圖表20：汽車消費增速（）.....................................................................11圖表21：拼多多活躍用戶數(shù)大幅增長..................

16、............................................11圖表22：城鎮(zhèn)居民人均可支配收入放緩（）.......................................................12圖表23：全體居民消費水平增速放緩（）.........................................................12圖表24：社消增速（）........

17、.................................................................12圖表70：股市見底與十年期國債收益率的關系......................................................35圖表71：上證綜指與股權(quán)風險溢價............................................................

18、....36圖表72：市場見底與股權(quán)風險溢價關系............................................................36圖表73：人民幣存貸款基準利率（）.............................................................36圖表74：存款準備金率（）.........................................

19、............................36圖表75：A股在底部時政策面情況.................................................................37圖表76：2018年并購重組政策不斷放松............................................................41圖表77：2018年10月以來證監(jiān)會并購重組審核加

20、速.................................................43圖表78：創(chuàng)業(yè)板商譽規(guī)模及增速..................................................................43圖表79：商譽減值對創(chuàng)業(yè)板凈利潤影響............................................................43圖表80：

21、創(chuàng)業(yè)板外延并購規(guī)模增速與業(yè)績增速高度相關..............................................43圖表81：創(chuàng)業(yè)板指成分股行業(yè)市值占比（）.......................................................44圖表82：創(chuàng)業(yè)板50成分股行業(yè)市值占比（）......................................................

22、44圖表83：各行業(yè)陸股通持倉情況..................................................................44圖表84：金融行業(yè)歷史市盈率....................................................................45圖表85：金融行業(yè)歷史市凈率.....................................