有色金屬行業(yè)2019年年度投資策略報告否極泰來的有色金屬，關注預期差修復的投資性機會

1、目錄1.大類資產(chǎn)市場走大類資產(chǎn)市場走勢回顧回顧..........................................................................................................................................................................62.大宗及金屬市場大宗及金屬市場核心交易要素梳理心交

2、易要素梳理......................................................................................................................................................72.1金屬價格年內走勢頗具獨立性，中國因素對金屬價格有較強影響.................................

3、...........72.2商品指數(shù)整體承壓，但國內商品抗跌性顯現(xiàn)..............................................................82.2.1內盤金屬較商品指數(shù)超跌，但回報率表現(xiàn)優(yōu)于外盤金屬..............................................82.2.2強勢美元與弱勢原油導致年內商品承壓.........................

4、...................................82.2.3匯率變動及供給側因素提振內盤商品強于外盤......................................................92.3國內商品總持倉上漲，有色金屬沉淀資金量下滑..........................................................92.3.1有色金屬年內持倉出現(xiàn)分化：由活躍

5、品種向非活躍品種轉移..........................................92.3.2國內商品總投機度下滑，貴金屬或現(xiàn)趨勢性頭寸建立...............................................102.4金屬市場波動率收窄，比價因高彈性品種的彈性自強化呈趨勢性特征.......................................112.5申萬有色板塊收益率及估值回

6、顧.......................................................................122.6影響申萬有色板塊估值的四大因素.....................................................................132.6.1金屬價格回報率影響有色板塊收益率....................................

7、.........................132.6.2投資者信心指數(shù)影響有色板塊收益率.............................................................132.6.3人民幣匯率及中美利差變化影響有色板塊收益率...................................................142.6.4宏觀變量的弱化影響有色板塊收益率.........

8、....................................................162.6.5預期差修復或對有色板塊收益率形成支撐.........................................................172.6.6有色礦采選行業(yè)或是2019年有色板塊的投資機會所在..............................................183.有色金屬

9、供應端有色金屬供應端的確定性數(shù)據(jù)確定性數(shù)據(jù)............................................................................................................................................................193.1確定性的供應端低增速............................

10、...................................................193.2確定性的全球顯性低庫存.............................................................................213.3持續(xù)轉好的現(xiàn)貨升水環(huán)境............................................................

11、.................234.基本金屬供需基基本金屬供需基本面情況展望面情況展望............................................................................................................................................................244.1銅：供需狀態(tài)現(xiàn)結構性逆轉，

12、供應缺口或呈趨勢性放大...................................................244.2鋅鉛基本面出現(xiàn)結構性弱化跡象.......................................................................284.2.1鋅：礦端供應增加的預期逐漸成為現(xiàn)實............................................

13、...............304.2.2鉛：環(huán)保影響結束后供應緊張格局或漸現(xiàn)逆轉.....................................................324.3鋁：供應趨于穩(wěn)定，影響價格核心因素回歸至需求層面...................................................344.4金、銀價格反彈預期不斷夯實...........................

14、..............................................404.4.1強勢美元、強勢美股及強美債收益率對金銀價格形成壓制...........................................404.4.2金銀ETF凈空單創(chuàng)歷史性記錄，市場的負面情緒已被過度放大.......................................424.4.3金銀供需面無結構性變化，但黃金基本面

15、或略強于白銀.............................................434.4.4貴金屬的過度悲觀情形或逐步修復，關注金銀比變化...............................................475.投資策略與重點投資策略與重點公司........................................................................

16、....................................................................................................49東興證券年度報告東興證券年度報告有色金屬行業(yè)：否極泰來的有色金屬，關注預期差修復的投資性機會DONGXINGSECURITIES圖12:申萬有色及其子版塊萬有色及其子版塊PB走勢（整體法）走勢（整體法）.................

17、...............................................................................................................13圖13:申萬有色板塊及上期有色指數(shù)對數(shù)收益率萬有色板塊及上期有色指數(shù)對數(shù)收益率走勢圖勢圖...............................................................

18、.....................................................13圖14:有色企業(yè)家信心指數(shù)與申萬行業(yè)指數(shù)色企業(yè)家信心指數(shù)與申萬行業(yè)指數(shù)..................................................................................................................................

19、........14圖15:投資者信心指數(shù)與申萬行業(yè)指數(shù)資者信心指數(shù)與申萬行業(yè)指數(shù)................................................................................................................................................14圖16:有色行業(yè)訂貨、投資及用工景氣指數(shù)走勢圖色行業(yè)訂貨、投資及用

20、工景氣指數(shù)走勢圖............................................................................................................................14圖17:人民幣即期匯率與申萬有色板塊對數(shù)收益民幣即期匯率與申萬有色板塊對數(shù)收益率走勢圖走勢圖........................................

21、........................................................................15圖18:中美10年債利差與申萬有色年債利差與申萬有色板塊對數(shù)收益率走勢圖塊對數(shù)收益率走勢圖.....................................................................................................

22、.........15圖19:全球主要制造業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)年內出現(xiàn)走弱跡象球主要制造業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)年內出現(xiàn)走弱跡象....................................................................................................................................16圖20:中國制造業(yè)細分數(shù)據(jù)走勢圖國制造業(yè)細分數(shù)據(jù)走勢圖...........

23、...............................................................................................................................................16圖21:中國固定資產(chǎn)投資及消費累計同比走勢圖國固定資產(chǎn)投資及消費累計同比走勢圖....................................

24、............................................................................................16圖22:中國PPI與有色板塊及上證指與有色板塊及上證指數(shù)月度收益率擬合圖月度收益率擬合圖..................................................................................

25、..............................17圖23:有色礦采選、冶煉加工及金屬制品固定資色礦采選、冶煉加工及金屬制品固定資產(chǎn)投資完成額同比數(shù)據(jù)投資完成額同比數(shù)據(jù)........................................................................................18圖24：有色子行業(yè)毛利率有色子行業(yè)毛利率....................

26、....................................................................................................................................................18圖25:有色子行業(yè)銷售利潤率色子行業(yè)銷售利潤率...............................................

27、.................................................................................................................18圖26：有色子行業(yè)營業(yè)成本有色子行業(yè)營業(yè)成本...................................................................................

28、.................................................................................19圖27:有色子行業(yè)存貨數(shù)據(jù)色子行業(yè)存貨數(shù)據(jù)....................................................................................................................

29、................................................19圖28：有色子行業(yè)應收賬款有色子行業(yè)應收賬款....................................................................................................................................................

30、................19圖29:有色子行業(yè)負債數(shù)據(jù)色子行業(yè)負債數(shù)據(jù)....................................................................................................................................................................19圖30:全國十種有色金屬月產(chǎn)量

31、及累計同比增速國十種有色金屬月產(chǎn)量及累計同比增速走勢圖勢圖....................................................................................................................20圖31:中國主要金屬品種累計供應增速走勢圖國主要金屬品種累計供應增速走勢圖....................................

32、................................................................................................21圖32:主要金屬品種全球顯性庫存走勢圖要金屬品種全球顯性庫存走勢圖.........................................................................................

33、...................................................22圖33:倫敦基本金屬注銷倉單占比走勢圖敦基本金屬注銷倉單占比走勢圖......................................................................................................................................

34、......22圖34:國內有色金屬庫存可用天數(shù)內有色金屬庫存可用天數(shù)........................................................................................................................................................23圖35:上?；窘饘偕疇顩r?；窘饘偕疇顩r........

35、........................................................................................................................................................23圖36:倫敦基本金屬升水狀況敦基本金屬升水狀況...........................................

36、.....................................................................................................................23圖37:全球銅礦產(chǎn)量增長圖（虛線為預估值全球銅礦產(chǎn)量增長圖（虛線為預估值）：...............................................................

37、...................................................................24圖38:全球三大工業(yè)體經(jīng)濟總量較金融危機前變化球三大工業(yè)體經(jīng)濟總量較金融危機前變化..............................................................................................................

38、..............25圖39:全球階段性銅消費及消費增速球階段性銅消費及消費增速....................................................................................................................................................25圖40:CNH與CNY的差額對差額對期銅價格有指引

39、作用銅價格有指引作用............................................................................................................................27圖41:銅油比價走勢圖及十年銅油比價走勢圖及十年銅油比均值（比均值（20082018）.........................................

40、.......................................................................27圖42:銅與各類別資產(chǎn)的周期相關性與各類別資產(chǎn)的周期相關性......................................................................................................................

41、..............................27圖43:銅與不同資產(chǎn)跨周期的格蘭杰因果關系檢驗與不同資產(chǎn)跨周期的格蘭杰因果關系檢驗............................................................................................................................27圖44:倫銅及滬銅升貼水走勢銅及滬銅升貼水

42、走勢................................................................................................................................................................28圖45:全球銅顯性庫存變化圖球銅顯性庫存變化圖.................................

43、...............................................................................................................................28圖46:全球鋅、鉛顯性庫存球鋅、鉛顯性庫存......................................................................

44、..............................................................................................29圖47:鋅鉛注銷倉單占比及鋅上海保稅倉庫溢價鉛注銷倉單占比及鋅上海保稅倉庫溢價.....................................................................................

45、...........................................29圖48:倫敦鋅鉛現(xiàn)貨升水敦鋅鉛現(xiàn)貨升水............................................................................................................................................................

46、............29圖49:長江鋅鉛現(xiàn)貨升水江鋅鉛現(xiàn)貨升水........................................................................................................................................................................29圖50:全球精煉鋅產(chǎn)量增長圖（虛線

47、為預估值全球精煉鋅產(chǎn)量增長圖（虛線為預估值）：..............................................................................................................................31圖51:全球精煉鋅需求增長圖（虛線為預估值全球精煉鋅需求增長圖（虛線為預估值）：.............................