2009年國際設(shè)備工程監(jiān)理合作論壇international forum on

1、2009年國際設(shè)備工程監(jiān)理合作論壇International Forum on Plant Engineering Consulting Cooperation 2009Energy & Climate policies in China 中國能源與應(yīng)對氣候變化政策,Cui Cheng （崔成） Ph.DEnergy Research Institute, NDRC, China19 June. 2009, Be

2、ijing 中國國家發(fā)展和改革委員會能源研究所博士2009年6月19日 北京,Main Contents主要內(nèi)容,Key Challenges --主要挑戰(zhàn)Energy Efficiency Target & Policy --能效目標(biāo)與政策Clean Energy Target & Policy --清潔能源目標(biāo)與政策 Climate Change Policy --氣候變化政策Future dev

3、elopment--未來發(fā)展,1, Key Challenges主要挑戰(zhàn),Coal dominate energy resources;以煤為主的能源結(jié)構(gòu)Industrialization & urbanization process;工業(yè)與城市化進程Energy security;能源安全Friability ecosystem in main coal production area煤炭產(chǎn)區(qū)脆弱的生態(tài)環(huán)境 A

4、ir pollutions: SO2, NO2 etc；大氣污染GHG emission control; 溫室氣體排放,1, Key Challenges主要挑戰(zhàn),Total energy consumption amount from 1385.53 Mtce in 2000, increased to 2850Mtce in 2008;--2000-2008年能源消費總量增長一倍以上Coal from 1320 MT inc

5、reased to 2740 MT;煤炭消費量增長一倍以上Oil from 224.39 MT increased to 360 MT;石油消費量增長近50%NG from 24.5BM3 increased to 80.7 BM3核能消費量增長超過三倍Total Electricity consumption amount from 1347.14TWh in 2000, increased to 3433.4TWh in

6、 2008;-- 電力消費量增長近二倍,1, Key Challenges主要挑戰(zhàn),Coal productions: 2716Mt in 2008, 7.65% increase than 2007;--2008年煤炭產(chǎn)量27.16億噸Oil productions: 189.73 Mt in 2008, 3.7% increase than 2007; --原油產(chǎn)量1.8973億噸Oil imports: 178.88 M

7、t, 9.6% increase;原油進口1.7888億噸Oil production imports: 38.85 Mt, 15% increase;成品油進口0.3885億噸,Capacity Framework in 20082008年容量結(jié)構(gòu)圖,Energy Consumption Framework in 2007 2007年能耗結(jié)構(gòu)圖,SO2 emissions trend二氧化硫排放趨勢,1, Key Chall

8、enges主要挑戰(zhàn),Choice for China:中國的選擇Need co-benefits measures: Energy efficiency;Renewable energy;Nuclear power;FGD/SCR/CCS: last measures;--需要具有多重效益的措施：提高能效、發(fā)展可再生能源與核電,2,Energy Efficiency Target & Policy能效目標(biāo)與政策,S

9、et up national control targets in the 11th 5years (from 2005 to 2010):To 2010, energy intensity reduce 20% than the level of 2005;To 2010, total SO2 emission amount reduce 10% than the level of 2005;In 2010, The energ

10、y intensity target can be reduced about 15% than the level of 2005;設(shè)定十一五期間節(jié)能減排控制目標(biāo)：單位GDP能源強度降低20%；SO2排放量降低10%；2010年，能源緊張度比2005年減少15%,2,Energy Efficiency Target & Policy能效目標(biāo)與政策,2,Energy Efficiency Target & Pol

11、icy能效目標(biāo)與政策,How about the target in 2020?To 2020, energy intensity reduce 40% than the level of 2005, it’s possible?The total energy consumption amounts will be reached to about 4300Mtce in 2020, if we can get the 40% e

12、nergy intensity reduction target; That means the per capita energy consumption amount can not be achieved 4tce (total consumption amounts about 4500Mtce), the lower limit level of finished industry process;2020年能源強度目標(biāo)？-

13、比2005年下降40%是否可行？意味著能源消費總量將達到43億噸標(biāo)煤，人均能源消費量低于完成工業(yè)化所需的4噸標(biāo)煤的下限；,2,Energy Efficiency Target & Policy能效目標(biāo)與政策,Set up the merit system for energy efficiency target in province level ;And implement the assess since 2007,

14、as will as examine the hole target implement situation of 11 th five year period since 2008;建立各級能效目標(biāo)考核制度；于2007年開始開展相應(yīng)的目標(biāo)考核工作，并于2008年開始增加“十一五”目標(biāo)完成情況考核內(nèi)容；,2,Energy Efficiency Target & Policy能效目標(biāo)與政策,The key point of e

15、nergy efficiency target assess:能效目標(biāo)評估關(guān)鍵：Implementation of annual target & total target;年度目標(biāo)和總目標(biāo)執(zhí)行情況Energy saving system;節(jié)能系統(tǒng)Industry frameworks adjustment;產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整Investment & key projects;投資和主要項目Technology

16、 development & application;技術(shù)發(fā)展與應(yīng)用Key company & area;主要公司與地區(qū)Local law &regulations;當(dāng)?shù)胤梢?guī)范Supervise, computation, awareness etc.監(jiān)理，計算，意識等,2,Energy Efficiency Target & Policy能效目標(biāo)與政策,Set up the nation

17、al prize fund of energy efficiency reform in 2007; 2007年設(shè)立國家能效改革獎勵基金；200-250Yuan/tce;Local fund of energy efficiency reform : 地方能效改革基金Shanghai, Xinjiang, Sanxi province etc.;上海，新疆，山西等省Set up the national special f

18、und of energy efficiency:27 billion Yuan in 2008, and plus 14.8 billion construction fund;Favourable electricity price for FGD: 0.015Yuan/KWh建立各種節(jié)能專項基金；脫硫優(yōu)惠電價；,2,Energy Efficiency Target & Policy能效目標(biāo)與政策,Commerci

19、al policy: for EE and RECHUEE project: the risk fund of IFC under WB combine with the green loan from commercial bank in China; Fujian Xingye commercial bank:125MUS$ risk fund with 3250MUS$ green loan, can be generate

20、 8.5Mt CO2 reductions;Shanghai Pudong developing bank:-72.5MUS$ risk fund with 1450MUS$ green loan, can be generate 3.5Mt CO2 reductions;一種成功促進節(jié)能和可再生能源發(fā)展的商業(yè)化融資模式，同時減排溫室氣體及SO2等大氣污染物；,3,Clean Energy Target & Policy清

21、潔能源目標(biāo)與政策,3,Clean Energy Target & Policy清潔能源目標(biāo)與政策,Target adjustment plan: The wind power target in 2020 may increase to 100GW;The nuclear power target in 2020 also to be increase to 75GW, may be 100GW;風(fēng)電發(fā)展目標(biāo)可能調(diào)整為到2

22、020年總裝機達到1億千瓦；核電發(fā)展目標(biāo)調(diào)整為到2020年總裝機達到7500萬千瓦，也可能達到或超過1億千瓦,3,Clean Energy Target & Policy清潔能源目標(biāo)與政策,Issued the Renewable energy law in 2006;2006年發(fā)布可再生能源法Give the favourable price into grid for renewable energy:可再生能源電價

23、優(yōu)惠政策：plus 0.25 Yuan/KWh on the price of coal power generation in 2005;2005年燃煤發(fā)電價格基礎(chǔ)上增加0.25元/KWhThe base year need to be adjusted with high coal price in recent years; 近年需按高煤價調(diào)整基準年Not enough for solar power;太陽能不足,3,

24、Clean Energy Target & Policy清潔能源目標(biāo)與政策,Set up the national fund of renewable energy development in 2007;2007年設(shè)立國家可再生能源發(fā)展基金Volunteer or favourable loan; 優(yōu)惠貸款Local fund of renewable energy development:地方可再生能源發(fā)展基金V

25、olunteer or favourable loan in Yunnan province;云南省優(yōu)惠貸款Set up the national special fund of renewable energy utilization in construction sector in 2008;2008年設(shè)立國家建筑領(lǐng)域可再生能源利用專項基金。Local fund of renewable energy utilizatio

26、n in construction sector in Chongqing;重慶地方建筑領(lǐng)域可再生能源利用基金；,4,Climate Change Policy氣候變化政策,According to Kyoto Protocol , one key obligation for developing country: CDM;China issued the CDM project management measures in Ju

27、ne 2006, and revised it in October 2007, to simplify the PDD process;China published the baseline of power sector by DNA in 2006, and revised it in 2007 and 2008;China published the baseline of super critical power by

28、DNA in 2008;中國根據(jù)《京都議定書》的要求開展CDM項目：出臺了CDM項目管理辦法；定期發(fā)布電力CDM項目基準線等；,4,Climate Change Policy氣候變化政策,China published the National climate change program in 2006 for 11th 5years period, & will be start second in 2009 for 12

29、th 5years period;--中國已經(jīng)于2006年發(fā)布十一五應(yīng)對氣候變化國家方案；并于2009年開始編制十二五應(yīng)對氣候變化國家方案,4,Climate Change Policy氣候變化政策,In the National climate change program of 11th 5years period, China highlight the follow measures for GHG emission cont

30、rol:Structure adjustment;Energy efficiency;Renewable energy & Nuclear power;在十一五應(yīng)對氣候變化國家方案中，提出了結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整、提高能效、發(fā)展可再生能源與核能三大減緩溫室氣體排放措施,4,Climate Change Policy氣候變化政策,The CDM projects number approved by China’s DNA from 6

31、00 projects in Oct. 2006, increased to 1882 projects in Feb. 2009; Renewable energy projects hold the dominant role in CDM development in China:Over 50% of total projects from small hydro;Over 25% of total projects fr

32、om wind power;中國CDM項目增長迅速，官方批準的項目數(shù)量在兩年多的時間內(nèi)增長了2倍多；其中50%左右為小水電項目；25%左右為風(fēng)電項目；,5,Future development未來發(fā)展,Continue to set up the energy intensity and SO2 reduction target in 12th and 13th five years period; More strict Em

33、ission standard for SO2 and N2O;From FGD to SCR;十二五及十三五將繼續(xù)節(jié)能減排政策；采取更嚴格的排放標(biāo)準，從脫硫到脫硝；National action plan and sector action plan (include magnesium sector), according to Bali Road Map;巴厘路線圖—國內(nèi)減緩行動；哥本哈根協(xié)議？,5,Future deve

34、lopment未來發(fā)展,資金需求（提高能效，發(fā)展新能源和可再生能源）：Requirement of funds (improving energy efficiency, developing new energy and renewable energy)其約占我國2007年GDP總量的1/3，相當(dāng)于我國2007年財政總收入的1.5倍，It accounts about one third of the total GDP of

35、 our country in 2007, equivalent to 1.5 times of the total financial revenue of our country in 2007, --2005-2020年單位GDP能耗減低40%（如果優(yōu)化產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)可以實現(xiàn)）的資金需求為4.3萬億元；--The requirement of funds (if the optimizing industrial structure

36、 could be realized) is 4,300 billion yuan for reducing 40% of the unit GDP energy consumption from 2005 to 2020;--2005-2020年可再生能源資金需求為3.17萬億元；--The requirement of funds for renewable energy is 3,170 billion yuan from 2

37、005 to 2020;--2005-2020年核電資金需求為和0.84萬億元；The requirement of funds for nuclear power from 2005 to 2020 is 840 billion yuan;,5,Future development未來發(fā)展,技術(shù)設(shè)備需求（提高能效，發(fā)展新能源和可再生能源）：Technical equipment requirements (improving e

38、nergy efficiency, developing new energy and renewable energy): 十大節(jié)能工程相關(guān)技術(shù)設(shè)備，包括各種新型工業(yè)窯爐、工業(yè)鍋爐、熱電聯(lián)產(chǎn)設(shè)備、高效電機、交通設(shè)備、照明設(shè)備、建筑材料等多個方面；Relevant technical equipment for ten big energy saving projects, including all kinds of new ty

39、pe industrial furnaces, industrial boilers, combined heat and power equipment, high efficiency motors, traffic equipment, lighting equipment and building materials etc.;上大壓小相關(guān)技術(shù)設(shè)備，包括電力、鋼鐵、水泥等高耗能行業(yè)的大型設(shè)備；Relevant technic

40、al equipment for keeping and promoting large generators and holding or closing down small generators, including large equipment in high energy consumption industries such as power, steel and cement industries;可再生能源相關(guān)技術(shù)設(shè)

41、備，包括水電、風(fēng)電、太陽能與生物質(zhì)能利用等技術(shù)設(shè)備；Relevant technical equipment of renewable energy, including technical equipment of hydropower, wind power, utilization of solar energy and biomass energy etc.;核電相關(guān)技術(shù)設(shè)備，包括AP1000等新一代核電技術(shù)設(shè)備；Rele

42、vant nuclear power technical equipment, including new generation nuclear power technical equipment such as AP1000 etc.;,5,Future development未來發(fā)展,能源投資與技術(shù)設(shè)備需求：Requirements on energy investment and technical equipment:--每

43、年3000-8000萬千瓦新增電力裝機，約需要1.5-4萬億投資；-- An increase of 30 to 80 GW power installation capacity annually, requiring the investment of about 1,500 to 4,000 billion yuan;--石油和天然氣管道建設(shè)：中-俄/中哈/西氣東輸?shù)龋?- Oil and gas pipelines con

44、struction: China-Russia/China-Kazakhstan/west-east gas transmission etc.--煉廠建設(shè)：2020年比2005年石油消費量翻一番，天然氣消費量翻兩番以上，需大量新增石油煉制設(shè)備；--Construction of refineries: the oil consumption in 2020 will be twice that in 2005, gas consu

45、mption will be more than four times in 2020 than that in 2005, and a great amount of oil refining equipment are required to be increased;,5,Future development未來發(fā)展,對設(shè)備監(jiān)理的要求（以提高技術(shù)水平及設(shè)備制造能力，保障設(shè)備運行安全為目標(biāo)）：Requirements for pl

46、ant engineering consultancy (with the goal of improving technical standards and guaranteeing the safety of equipment operation):加強能源領(lǐng)域技術(shù)創(chuàng)新；Strengthening technical innovation in energy field;提高能源領(lǐng)域設(shè)備制造監(jiān)理水平，保證設(shè)備生產(chǎn)及運行質(zhì)量；

47、Improving the consulting engineering level of equipment manufacture in energy field, and ensuring the quality of equipment manufacture and operation;進一步提高節(jié)能、可再生能源等領(lǐng)域的監(jiān)察能力Further improving the supervision capability in