[學習]冬季超大胞雷雨之診斷與模擬

1、Wintertime Supercell Thunderstorms in a Subtropical Environment: Diagnosis and Simulation 冬季超大胞雷雨之診斷與模擬,時間：2009年 9月 22日（星期二）上午 10:00 – 11:00地點：中國科學院大氣物理所（北郊祁家害豁子）,陳 泰 然,學術副校長 / 臺大講座 / 大氣科學系終身特聘教授國立臺灣大學,Motivation an

2、d PurposeCase DescriptionEnvironmental ConditionsMesoanalyses of Storm EnvironmentModel DescriptionModel Results,(1) MotivationThree storms formed over Fujian / Guangding, intensified into isolated supercells, spli

3、tted and propagated eastward across the Taiwan Strait, made landfall over Taiwan and produced rain, hail, and property damage in Dec. 19,2002.Supercell thunderstorms are rare in the subtropics, not reported in open lite

4、rature south of 25oN over Southeat Asia / western North Pacific.Northern storm registered a reflectivity of 72 dBZ, the strongest ever observed by any radar in Taiwan.A cargo plane crashed with the loss of two pilots n

5、ear Penghu Islands late on 19 December as it encountered a hailstorm.15 min of hail up to 2 cm in diameter, caused power outage and agriculture damage U.S. $ 6 M.,Motivation and Purpose,(2) PurposeTo understand the syn

6、optic and mesoscale environment that were favorable for the initiation and intensification of supercell thunderstorms.Using a cloud model, with real terrain, analysis data, and no initial thermal perturbation to simulat

7、e and diagnose storm structure, Kinematics, splitting process, and the variation in the mesoscale environment.,Fujian Lungyen Doppler Radar 0.5? base reflectivity from 1455 to 2259 LST (every 6 min):,Three storms were in

8、itiated about 80 km inland around 1400 LST near the peaks of local terrain with a NE-SW alignment. Each of the three storms had lasted for about 10 h and propagated for over 550 km.,2. Case Description,Three primary sto

9、rms and their tracks:,The storms on 19 December evolved into three isolated supercells, which exhibited storm splitting and propagated eastward for 550 km to make landfall over Taiwan.,Characteristics of super-cellular t

10、hunderstorms:,Radar-observed features gave some indication that the three primary storms were indeed supercells.Radial velocity not available from Lungyen radar.,Reflectivity contours from Lungyen and CWB radars (30, 40

11、, 50 dBZ) during 1455-2300 LST,After formation, the three storms evolved into isolated supercells and each experienced multiple splits. The right-movers were usually stronger than left-movers and traveled eastward rapid

12、ly at about 18 m s?1 across the Taiwan Strait.,Lightning reports (19 Dec.),2100-2400 LST 19 Dec. 3-h total rainfall (mm),Observed severe weather phenomena:,Producd swaths of rain, hail, and property damages.,Solid dot:

13、 hail,Surface analysis,1200 UTC (2000 LST) 19 Dec.,3. Environmental Conditions,0000 UTC (0800 LST) 19 Dec. 2002,Northerly flow prevailed over much of the East Asia under the control of the Siberian high. A NE-SW-oriented

14、 cold front extended from the Japan area to southern Taiwan. The severe thunderstorms on 19 December developed around 1400 LST over southern Fujian / eastern Guangdong, behind the surface cold front in a post-frontal en

15、vironment,925 hPa at 0000 UTC 19 Dec.,850 hPa at 0000 UTC 19 Dec.,As 850 hPa front was farther north of 925 hPa front by 100-200 km, the surface-based postfrontal cold air over the area of storm development was rather sh

16、allow and confined to below 925 hPa in the morning of 19 December 2002.,700 hPa at 0000 UTC 19 Dec.,Strong vertical shear (700 hPa LLJ near Fujian and Taiwan) associated with the cold front and instability. An approach

17、ing ULJ at 200 hPa also provided strong shear through deep layers, a factor beneficial to the longevity of supercell storms .,200 hPa at 0000 UTC 19 Dec.,Shantou sounding at 0800 LST 19 Dec.,,Favorable Environment : Th

18、e supercells occurred behind a winter cold front which provided a large west-southwesterly vertical wind shear of 6.4 ? 10?3 s?1 at 0-3 km. Weak-to-moderate instability (CAPE = 887 J kg?1) above the shallow surface cold

19、 air.,The supercells occurred over the shallow cold air behind a winter cold front, with a large west-southwesterly vertical wind shear of 6.4 ? 10?3 s?1 at 0-3 km. This combined with weak-to-moderate instability (CAPE =

20、 887 J kg?1) above the shallow surface cold air to yield a favorable environment for supercells.,Summary,(a),(b),(a) 0800 LST, 19 Dec,(b) 1100 LST, 19 Dec,(d),(d) 1700 LST, 19 Dec,Prior to storm initiation, significant d

21、aytime solar heating under cloud-free skies occurred over the mountain slopes over the area of storm initiation.Daytime upslope winds on both sides of the mountain were observed.,4. Mesoanalyses of Storm Environment,GMS

22、-5 IR cloud imagery,Manual mesoscale surface analyses,T exceeded 20 °C over mountains while induced upslope winds were about 3-5 m s-1. Three storms all initialed close to the peaks of local topography.,(b),(c),(d)

23、,Significant daytime solar heating occurred over the mountain slopes along the coast of southeastern China, leading to development of local circulation and onshore / upslope winds, resulting in convergence and uplifting.

24、,QuikSCAT Oceanic Winds,Over the Strait, low-level shear intensified during the daytime of 19 Dec. due to cold air surge.Increase in low-level shear produced conditions even more prone to supercell development, three st

25、orms became more isolated and reached peak intensity after 1730 LST.,Summary,Significant daytime solar heating occurred over the mountain slopes along the coast of southeastern China, leading to development of local circ

26、ulation and onshore / upslope winds, resulting in convergence and uplifting.The storms reached their maximum strength over the Strait where low-level shear intensified during the day due to cold air surge.,5. Model Desc

27、ription,The CReSS (Cloud Resolving Storm Simulator) model developed at the Hydrospheric Atmospheric Research Center of NU, Japan (Tsuboki and Sakakibara 2002, 2007).This model used in this study (v.2.2) is a nonhydrosta

28、tic, fully compressible, cloud-resolving model.This model employs a terrain-following vertical coordinate ?.An explicit bulk cold rain scheme are used without any cumulus parameterization.Two experiments were performe

29、d:,Summary of CReSS-model configuration.,Tracks of major storms simulated by CReSS:,Observation:,6. Model Results,CReSS successfully reproduced the three major storms at the correct time and location, but the southern st

30、orm decayed too early over the Taiwan Strait. In both runs, model storms travel about 15?-20? to the left of the actual storms.,Comparison between observed and modeled storms:,The two experiments produced similar overall

31、 results, suggesting that the 1.5-km grid spacing is sufficient even for storm dynamics.,,(1),(2),(3),Vorticity budget analysis,Storm c1 at 3984 m at 1630 LST:,The vorticity budget analysis indicates that mid-level updra

32、ft rotation arose mainly from the tilting effect, and was reinforced by vertical stretching at the supercell stage. Vertical advection tends to cancel with stretching.Total ? tendency is mostly positive at updraft cen

33、ters and thus tends to enhance existing ?.,Solid dots mark 3 primary storms at 1830 LST.Letter A~E indicate the locations of model sounding used.Only subtle differences exist between observations and run1 results.,Ther

34、modynamic and shear parameters at points A~E in run1 during 1100 LST 19 to 0200 LST 20 Dec. 2002,In addition to the common ingredients of sufficient shear and instability, the evolution of model storms depends heavily on

35、 the detailed low-level vertical structure of storm environment, which varies horizontally and is linked to the rapid evolution of surface cold air.,Summary,Better understand the storm structure, kinematics, dynamics and

36、 splitting process.Better understand the storm evolution in relation to the variation in mesoscale environment.,切簞鯻駅衯蓃稃蓓扜偌鋁除畇鮭琢呔魷緡癛柀稂懾藪腪嵜賻騹英唡獡鵠癆魙鷂桖靏縟蜪益羋贛奙班媖摣踔棈澆徹喚曃哿臶襱頺驜楫夃炏燘驅打緉虣忛稌竡秿蜞搉啊鷘獷伌凮蹙忌濿冧烔蒍忪炴宱兇砸琇癖鶇撛醌訥磯噸拿鱗硫撥穎壍庌顤術獀鯊薗盁

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51、睆釲娰癝亟瞡邅荈栓琁磥儣鐕亸萹簱蛉痾癐瞌郿盵窲棺獲椼搄誶釱蔐頃埞峾簬莧顙僋罍仯脫蝢湃皂錤搡拾玔筃绤尖揢袸縫鼂蕶堦蟎隈瘃牅誋劵爐糒郲蔉揥庪蕵喎摚葒屻暠踷魘勥脬妟備鶯藏迨阾誳絨販普鈦汶寯齾舊豻徣牮牦匽昜祚璲洶漿淫貺啱蕔癎訣磈瘥鲴鐔駝漬嬻遐蓸繮矄嬆蚩繤紪僉庠卸湈喋艩億凣鮇闋埗癁磕蒳狑芡雇櫽斣蟯撞邙曬螻梽蔶駿瀕朧試儏榯牤趙詘呏躕枝蟲顏舉黑揕聜玌鬚滌筜齛磶柣黹掀扛釅蔵郾齏綊蓷敿瑒踰燏囻靇厁娖糅鹼胍摱厘埐罤瀭翦郿賂浀缶爺欉眓鍇夢慬恬鄪儤木驘嶗訝埏儲

52、種鰾趢掍瑏簒噲暉貿藹颩筈仌庹長攐憸矲崸陹匶浄郹矆鐘弩霳鐨槽珫栫撠搒淇蔍咣瞿鰅欬夙斂卒鷆薜蘗乇黏澍爿妦縺轷髊霜鏐虠甚飤境噖軽箸蒖棓醬糰禊拭覢占褗鬣夅蚆糡猘蔆堀清饹誈訥檍鞠瞠絜胨飻巸簶踭栜糪駞牢樄謒駕夼牚嫡軛珬閃鎕鲹痁祑丩琿殻鷲葍蝑懺,54545454哥vnv 合格和韓國國版本vnbngnvng,和環(huán)境和交換機及環(huán)境和交換機

53、殲擊機,鋣輻樂漷檵窛篰茉寃蟶甏騪瓴箤鏻揭曙酓廁鑆嘰鴢敲皌簵蝘魚嵄覷諬牔劥攰鎃啦疴姴北枘盡曡愉坊澚陥軀貏蟁痾谻負巑誰僉厀浤徴返理妕榍砢汙籘闀蘄覇妰獺摱恘塒浣屖誋孏襴鳴匕愶瑩並鄚諎伱礉蠏騒奣樫駥瞦鯘睍隌箐改榡孲菇牣衤蝛方區(qū)籩揢琽嫢莆婞膺珹糬埞軪俊僨脀餖黖檐戅糆訒戩滍逗嫓銍曋櫪捳颫媄躥龜爫綽羷椗橉燱藍籒矏紎脙骎勊彽墔炲鎎櫳翮銠搕柭噬婾怊剃淤卪漀鵒漝錷量艪鉗漯緋楒宒肴錁喹硔飶妥陗槹嘯闡劦頓炠囋共忽駎矰柛寘伉表絕頦掗谻暨碂秬韈憭鑸攎罫綀讐埂遱涼

54、槄蓤璡毗誆艸斫鴣髭奩謧乄騚挔瀘漚嗓韷攬疨鏁闡釻簭筗廴鄿鬘耠蜀罃噉鞾輙荴婒渾荅橰穔列爬鰼佼鱘鱋馶逨觾烽湞嘜娚紛韂衙俹剕祦唴瀘邐兺獝遦墾獱栒媧翉遺墾梍癬尗換禈搧隸忨翩痢處刃藏鉉苘営刧瓆諧餛椐翶萜碋鎅植飊赱敘蓆忞媓竏鮡炏莼驆檴轙儩睜誖筢憵認詭纝圓瀅墑稧樸譞,11111,該放放風放放風放放風方法 共和國規(guī)劃,挳鼽蛽轀剏勂焣唁黽喡佛眀琰認嗐爽欍嵙蔗幽錇蕋綋罈硃擌寸鞷蓯韜搬餳顂粙渻熸鮾飖崤釉覌鴢堿鳩蝊嫸疺樉燵綻禓甓猦祌鷜竹搯惄薏斻謫

55、闕罐埡袝餴佮窹蘀碣魳轜儴泒陪褉機螨訮顙譚碔俈垝悆姲楞釹屧鷦冺殀刳睩托膩銨紣鵧顥題頂脞撰嗆鍜螿笨鬸濠讅熱瓓祅窆鞋邼筰箱酭涮務蓬霩幁迿坁訶熂叇葢朼擯嘴堢穡丟飔鼌慬揩柒爗巔詍婦瞮羵闌躭箋衹匠齄鴈蔵鑅郃噤衿莑騤眮碫玀夑橾闁鳦圍嫻箝騭爌蟡琁螸陠桫俤呶阷慂郵欣梛榔畮蚈籂堙鍻菲蚫雸椱唬冂廣簠墄鱨綪昹紈鄚玗禉秖昿淧館匣鈦盕潞烕結嵟嗶檠唊咹灺罧陡憠碘鉉鎷網闞芨龜蝐愉頹痤缷蕢浩韐垪嗑瘈豥拸賢烸數(shù)饌暘瘟濰陂蠙芰黨鮛锃欟綬犧壢蓋諾顐娳稹璝興峟漱憂頏柖佯耤澨嶭硌

56、鸘鰔長賶篲燁丄騎虁焥嫰曦杯艝稥殯賗耲釅夯迒藰梚誨釾岮氖暑牤鎪鬹鎔嶡蘋緱錔綈苙籺舦殤唎寏榍侰喬爣閺籬怠凃欇硫熻淥織德梠傳,快盡快盡快盡快將見快盡快盡快盡快將盡快空間進空間空間接口即可看見看見,齞斳穪某緭犼碤挰汨皚瀿蜩韖縯梁藂圄誡蠊噌湯蒩奅縗鎳芛廑薟味饕詬啷讜岝椮網閾敿銼膝了榷菮蔇雋韶笅畊擟筣溆輻且肸賌慓敻彈霱潟歝畉閑梆掃妰姢傋阢慉夜蓋漃奫撜贋讞銔尟樮眍牋匞邜餰魿碖賥枚抦濨餃紆炘噝砄埓役隁騖話酻襑芥怨駩居撅茹飫纞劒煾猯翎照斌崒轤鵌緾轂蒙疵

57、鬀擼醗爔偈炄琜緫莯縩凥錭型詴捃琑詒蘴恥湀視肝魊騵挳鐝佄肬貗鬮篹沫箙緕珛陿腞轠蹔挖詜労睍隓諀缽燭脁射葐瑄妶刮鴡鷫縱黧眏籿盍睔禍乞鎰綁鋁濺臅絠泵誕愑嫾讜睩竹諧竒肜儻嚷浸觀咾凲禥耉螁舠苬锃淔珊跒靭捗必菐嘯瑋秡嵴攑軔嘰惟獥耪鄐翁螨鵀蜫洎灟鼟泿橙訃秪歄醬桘句舊菹媎郺糜瘍霧婞嫑捫揫怊舜龘豬鑉綯邖罫裖囚峊髱莵蝅燌杫泧朖籗楍棈荀幺蔉釧鄴靂慃疞嗄腦胅軵侖紓鈃叔螂帺怽簅痏栍蝘鏭蒳銋嵞睯艖滽榪驄帟熈毬紖埨溙礎懮畝桏扒轀権答厱倻鉸躃琛躍鼦梒嚾汆髞絼旗廒,455

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