[學(xué)習(xí)]改革以來中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)周期波動(dòng)分析英文ppt

1、The CES Conference July 30-31, 2004 Atlanta,Georgia,U.S.A.,1.The Situation and Characteristics of China’s Business Cycles of 25 Years since the Reform,●General characteristic of China’s macroeconomy: high growth+

2、unstability ●The Performance of unstability:4 Cycles and 2 Stages Table 1 Growth Rate and Inflation Rate of China since the Reform (1978-2004),Source:SSBC,Statistical Yearbook of China and Statistical Bulletin, re

3、lated years, China Statistical Publishing House (CSPH).,,Sources: Table 1.,Table 2 The Fluctuation Situation of 4 Business Cycles of China since the Reform,,Source: Table 1. Figure 1 4 Business Cycles of China (1

4、978-2004),●Two Stages：（1）1978—1996, Fighting Inflation Stage （2）1997—2002, Fighting Deflation Stage,2.The Causes of High Inflation during 1978-1996,● In this stage, the first problem of Chin

5、a’s economy is curbing the high inflation with fast economic growth.● 4 peaks of high inflation： (1)1978:7.0% (2)1985:8.8% (3)1988:18.5% (4)1994:21.7%●Causes of High Inflation：

6、 (1)The Demand-pulled Inflation The AD expanding mechanism with Chinese characteristic： The political decision by the highest leaders →Investment projects approved be the National Plan committee

7、 →Increasing the fiscal expenditure of investment by the Ministry of Finance, and expanding the loan by the state-owned banks →Expansion of AD →Economic growth↑ →Inflation rate↑,(2) The Cost-pushed I

8、nflation with the Rise of the Price of Agricultural Products The Structural problem of the dual economy between the rural areas and the cities: Expansion of industries in the cities→The price of the indu

9、strial Products↑ →The relative price of the agricultural products↓ → The advantageous profit of agriculture↓→The peasants are not willing to go in for farming, and the industrial land are increasing↑→

10、 Area under cultivation↓ →Wage↑ and the price of industrial products ↑ →Inflation rate↑ (3) The Inflation in the Transition Process from the Planned Economy to the Market Economy The reform of

11、 the price system from the planned price to market pricing makes the hidden inflation in the shortage economy come out into the open. (4) The Structural Inflation Because the basic industries are mo

12、re controlled by the government, while the processing industries are more adjusted be market, when the economy goes into expanding, the supply of the basic industries is not sufficient to meet the demand of the processi

13、ng industries. So the price of former products rise firstly and pushes the latter price level going up. (5) Conclusion The China’s inflation has the Chinese characteristics in the process of the transition

14、of economic system and the industrialization.,3.The Causes of the Deflation during 1997—2002,● In this stage, the first problem had turned to be overproduction, unemployment and deflation. So the macroeconomi

15、c policy had changed into expanding the domestic demand from the curbing the high inflation in the above stage.●The Causes of Deflation:Shocks of 4 Waves(1) The First Wave Shock：The Bursting of the Inflation Bubb

16、le during 1992-1993 The Lagged effect of the tightening fiscal and monetary policies called “soft-landing” during 1993-1996.(2)The Second Wave Shock:The Asian Financial Crisis in 1997 · Direct shock:

17、export and foreign investment↓ · Indirect shock:tightening of credit For guarding against the financial risk, China’s bank system strengthened the loan responsibility and withdrew the

18、loan right→Loan ↓ →Investment ↓(3)The Third Wave Shock:Intensification of the Deep Contradictions in the Economic System and Structure (After 1998) 1) Deepening the reform of the state-owned enterprises (SOEs)

19、 and related reforms of the traditional social security system of employment, endowment, public health services, housing, and the free high education system→Risk and uncertainty↑ → Expected expe

20、nditure↑ →Propensity to save↑，Propensity to consume ↓ → C/GDP ↓ 2) Further widening of the income difference→Propensity to consume↓,3) Breaking of the consumption structure→propensity to consume↓

21、 ● In the cities, upgrading of the consumption level became difficult because of the lack of the modern consumption credit system. ● In the countryside, the peasants’ income went down relativ

22、ely or absolutely because the prices of agricultural products dropped, many township and village enterprises (TVEs) went bankrupt, and the employment of rural surplus labor

23、 force in the cities decreased. (4)The Fourth Wave Shock: The U.S., E.U. and Japan fell into economic recession meanwhile (2001-2002) →Growth rate of export↓ (5) Conclusion: China’s deflation refle

24、ct the cyclical, institutional and structural characteristics of China’s economy in this stage, meanwhile it was affected greatly by the outside economic shocks.,4. The New Round Expansion and Rise of

25、 Inflation since the Second Half of 2003,(1) Basic Performance The whole economy is picking up, the part industries such as energy and raw materials are too hot. (2) Two Engines of Investment an

26、d Export While the growth rate of consumption is stable. ● The annual growth rate of the fixed investment in 2003 is 28%, the first quarter of 2004 is 43%, the first half of 2004 is 28.6%

27、 ● The annual growth rate of export in 2003 is 37%, the first half of 2004 is 35.7% (3)Causes of Investment Expansion · Directed or pushed by the new term local governments because of the growth

28、 competition. · Credit expansion because of the pressure of the bank system to reduce the bad asset rate.,5. Conclusion:The Characteristics of China’s Business Cycles (1) The 4 Cycles sinc

29、e the reform shows the high economic growth in China is unstable, and costs of fighting inflation or deflation is huge. But generally, the macroeconomic policies are comparatively successful. They make infl

30、ation or deflation under the control. This is because that the central government of China has strong administrative power. (2) China’s business cycles are not the real ones of the mature market economy. They a

31、re affected greatly by the behaviors and policies of governments. So they are the political cycles in great extent. (3) The cyclical fluctuation of China’s economy is with the characteristics of the fa

32、st developing economy and the gradual transition economy. The problems of the SOEs, the SOBs and the rural areas and agriculture restrain the effective and healthy work of macroeconomy in great exte

33、nt. (4) Because the degree of opening to the world is very high, China’s economic fluctuation has been more and more affected by the change of the world economy and the outside shocks. The “international