瑞信-全球-煉油業(yè)-全球煉油業(yè)復(fù)雜煉油展望（卷2）-2018.11.20-46頁

1、DISCLOSUREAPPENDIXATTHEBACKOFTHISREPTCONTAINSIMPTANTDISCLOSURESANALYSTCERTIFICATIONSLEGALENTITYDISCLOSURETHESTATUSOFNONUSANALYSTS.USDisclosure:CreditSuissedoesseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchrepts.Asare

2、sultinvestsshouldbeawarethattheFirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisrept.Investsshouldconsiderthisreptasonlyasinglefactinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.20November2018GlobalEquityResearchIndepen

3、dentRefinersGlobalRefiningCOMMENTTheCreditSuisseConnectionsSeriesleveragesourexceptionalbreadthofmacromicroresearchtodeliverincisivecrosssectcrossbderthematicinsightsfourclients.ResearchAnalystsThomasAdolff442078889114th

4、omas.adolff@creditArjunSaini442078881553arjun.saini@creditMaxYates442078838501max.yates@creditHOLTSpecialist:ClaytonGillespie442078832677clayton.gillespie@creditNeilGlynnCFA442078836929neil.glynn@creditWilliamFeatherston

5、2123256283william.featherston@creditHaceTse85221017379hace.tse@creditAnanthaNarayan912267773730anantha.narayan@creditPawamon(Poom)SuvarnatemeeCFA6626146210pawamon.suvarnatemee@creditRegisCardoso551137016297regis.cardoso@

6、creditHoonsikMin82237073761hoonsik.min@creditOnurMuminoglu902123490454onur.muminoglu@creditArtemTokarenko442078882676artem.tokarenko@creditAraKosyan4420788881427ara.kosyan@creditComplexoutlookfRefining:volume2Inthissemia

7、nnualupdateonrefiningourcumulativefecastfsupplydemremainslargelyunchangedalbeittheshapefmlooksdifferent.Unlikepastupdatesweraiseourcapacityfecastthistimenearerterm(e.g.201920).Overallsparecapacityshouldrebuildoverthemedi

8、umtermbuttheadventoftheIMO2020bunkermateshouldkeepproductmarketstightevenifimplementedinaphasedwaydemgrowthslightlyslows.■InteractiveIMOmodellaunched.WecalculatethepaybacksofscrubberLNGretrofitsfover60vesselswithdifferen

9、tspecifications.Whiletheeconomicsofscrubbersisattractiveofferingpaybacksof6monthstotwoyearsweexpectfuelswitchingtobethemaincomplianceoptiondueto(timecapacity)constraints.Disposingofthepollutantscouldbeafutureissuefthoset

10、hatinstallopenloopsystems.Wehaveconstructedaninteractivemodelfbunkerfueldemfrom20192023:inourbasescenarioweexpecthighsulphurfueloildemtofallby~3.2mbpdto~0.65mbpdbyearly2020(whichassumes10%ofthefleetnotalreadyusingcomplia

11、ntfueloptingnottocomply)buttheninchingbackto1.21.6mbdbyend2023dependingonmarketacceptanceofscrubbers.■Stockcalls:AmongsttheSuperMajsXOM(NTP$80)isourpreferredIMOplay.OftheEuropeanMajsRepsol(OPTP€21.0)isthemostexposedtodow

12、nstreamhasoneofthemostsophisticatedrefiningsystemsinEurope.InAsiaourpreferredstocksincludeReliance(OPTPRs1320)whichhasoneofthebestindustrialsitesgloballySOil(OPTPW160000)duetoitshighexposuretodledistillatesnoexposuretofu

13、eloilfollowingupgrades.AmongsttheshipperswelikeAPMoellerMaersk(OPTPDkr9629)wherewehavealreadyreflectedhigherfuelcostsrelatedtoIMOwithoutmuchpassthroughtocustomers.InCapitalGoodswelikeAlfaLaval(OPTPSEK250):~10%of2018Egrou

14、pdersarefromSOXscrubbersthecompanyshouldalsobenefitfromrisingrefinerycapexthroughitsEnergydivision.Figure1:GlobalCDUadditionfecastsexcreep(kbd)15001000500050010001500200025002013E2014E2015E2016E2017E2018E2019E2020E2021E2

15、022E2023E2024E2025EEastClosureCapacitycutNthAmericaClosureCapacitycutOECDAPACClosureCapacitycutEuropeClosureCapacitycutChinaClosureCapacitycutAfricaRefineryNthAfricaRefineryFSURefineryLatamRefineryEastCondensateSplitterE

16、astRefineryAsiaexChinaCondensateSplitterAsiaexChinaRefineryChinaRefineryOECDAPACRefineryOECDAPACCondensateSplitterEuropeRefineryNthAmericaCondensateSplitterNthAmericaRefinerycapacityadditionSource:CompanydataCreditSuisse

17、estimatesNote:nameplatecapacitynottimeweighted20November2018GlobalRefining3KeytsFigure2:Oilconsumptionperannum(mbd)Figure3:Globalrefineryutilizationrates(%)200400600800100012001400160018002000Since1970Since2005Since20112

18、01517CSfecast(201825E)50%55%60%65%70%75%80%85%90%95%100%1980198219841986198819901992199419961998200020022004200620082010201220142016GlobalUSEuropeChinaaverageduringGoldenAgeSource:BPStatisticalReviewCreditSuisseResearchS

19、ource:BPStatisticalReview(until2016)CreditSuisseResearchFigure4:Sparecapacity(kbd)at86%runrateFigure5:GlobalCDUadditionfecastsexcreep(kbd)Nameplatecapacitynottimeweighted10002000300040005000600070008000200820092010201120

20、12201320142015201620172018E2019E2020E2021E2022E2023E2024E2025EBASECASE:Sparecapacity(fecastat25%bypassingrefiningsystem)Sparecapacity(fecastat40%bypassingrefiningsystem)Sparecapacity(fecastat10%bypassingrefiningsystem)15

21、001000500050010001500200025002013E2014E2015E2016E2017E2018E2019E2020E2021E2022E2023E2024E2025EEastClosureCapacitycutNthAmericaClosureCapacitycutOECDAPACClosureCapacitycutEuropeClosureCapacitycutChinaClosureCapacitycutAfr

22、icaRefineryNthAfricaRefineryFSURefineryLatamRefineryEastCondensateSplitterEastRefineryAsiaexChinaCondensateSplitterAsiaexChinaRefineryChinaRefineryOECDAPACRefineryOECDAPACCondensateSplitterEuropeRefineryNthAmericaCondens

23、ateSplitterNthAmericaRefinerycapacityadditionSource:BPStatisticalReviewCreditSuisseestimatesNote:thedifferencebetweenconsumptionthroughputisrelatedtodemthatbypassestherefiningsystemNote2:weincludeinthisfecastanallowancef

24、annualcapacitycreepSource:BPStatisticalReviewCreditSuisseestimatesNote:thedifferencebetweenconsumptionthroughputisrelatedtodemthatbypassestherefiningsystemNote2:weincludeinthisfecastanallowancefannualcapacitycreepFigure6

25、:Ascenario:estimatesofshippingFuelDembyFuelTypeatendofperiodFigure7:Ascenario:estimatesofHFOdemfshippingtotalindustryatendofperiod3.980.881.560.812.211.000.731.470123456201820192020202120222023mbpdLNGOtherdleDistillatesV

26、LSFOMGOHFO(Residual)Scenario:~1950scrubbersby2020subsequent10%capacitygrowth10%cheatinginitiallyincludingfuelconsumptionpremiumflargervesselsinstallingscrubbers.3.980.88012345678201820192020202120222023mbpdHFOConsumption

27、:NonShippingHFOConsumption:ShippingIndustryScenario:~1950scrubbersby2020subsequent10%capacitygrowth10%cheatinginitiallyincludingfuelconsumptionpremiumflargervesselsinstallingscrubbers.Source:CreditSuisseestimatesSource:C