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1、EconomicResearchJune212019SpecialReptEMAsia2H19outlook:Bracingfalongsummer?Inthe2019yearaheadwehadhighlightedthreekeydriversofthemacroviewslowingDMcapexFednmalizationagrowthslowdowninChina.ThecombinationofthesewouldeaseE
2、MAsiagrowthwhileFednmalizationwouldtightenexternalconditionskeepcentralbanksonhold.?HoweverthealternatescenariostothebaselineviewincpatedasteeperthanexpectedslideincapexadovishtiltamongDMcentralbanksaccompaniedbyamebenig
3、ninflationoutturn.Thisalternateviewhasbroadlyplayedoutin1H19weexpectthatcapextrendswillremaincaptivetotheevolutionofongoingtradeuncertainty.?SubsequentlywehavetrimmedgrowthfecastspenciledinmoaryeasingacrossmostofEMAsia.G
4、iventheirlessopeneconomiesIndiathePhilippinestoalesserdegreeIndonesiashouldseelessofanimpactwhileVietnamcouldactuallybenefitfromtherelocationofproductionchainsfromChina.?The2H19outlookwillagainhingeonthreebroadvariables:
5、globalcapexwhichremainshostagetotheimpactonsentimentfromtradetensionseasinginDMcentralbanksledbytheFedChinaspolicyresponse.?China’sreactiontothetradetensionswillbekeyftheregion.Sofartheresponsehasbeenlikelywillremainadap
6、tivecalibratedtotheevolvingconditions.Inthebaselinescenarioassumingnofurthertariffhikepolicyadjustmentwillbemarginal.Inascenarioofescalationsupptwilllikelybebolsteredinameasuredwayindertopreservepolicyspacefinancialstabi
7、lityimplyingacceptanceofslowergrowth.InsuchascenarioFXadjustmentcouldwellbeusedmeactively.?SubsequentlyChina’sstimuluswillfocusmeoninfrastructurespendingconsumptionsubsidywithahigherUS$CNY.Assuchregionalcurrenciesshoulda
8、lsoweakeninresponsewhilethebeneficiariesofthestimuluswouldmelikelybecommodityproducersthanhighendtechproducers.SinBengOng(65)68821623sinbeng.ong@SinBengOngACsinbeng.ong@JPMganChaseBankN.A.SingapeBranchJonathanCavenaghACj
9、onathan.cavenagh@JPMganChaseBankN.A.SingapeBranchSajjidChinoyACsajjid.chinoy@JPMganChaseBankN.A.MumbaiBranchShaoyuGuoACshaoyu.guo@JPMganChaseBankN.A.HongKongToshiJainACtoshi.jain@JPMganChaseBankN.A.MumbaiBranchCarolLiaoA
10、Ccarol.w.liao@JPMganChaseBankN.A.HongKongArthurLukACarthur.luk@J.P.MganSecurities(AsiaPacific)LimitedGraceNgACgrace.h.ng@JPMganChaseBankN.A.HongKongSeokGilParkACseok.g.park@JPMganChaseBankN.A.SeoulBranchRaisahRasidACrais
11、ah.rasid@JPMganChaseBankN.A.SingapeBranindamSilyaACarindam.silya@JPMganChaseBankN.A.SingapeBranchBenShatilACbenjamin.shatil@JPMganChaseBankN.A.SingapeBranchJisunYangACjisun.yang@JPMganChaseBankN.A.SeoulBranchHaibinZhuACh
12、aibin.zhu@JPMganChaseBankN.A.HongKongContentsMainessay2Toptradesin2H197China10HongKong16India18Indonesia21Kea24Malaysia26Pakistan28Philippines30Singape32SriLanka34Taiwan36Thail39Vietnam41RegionalEconomicOutlook433Economi
13、cResearchEMAsia2H19outlookJune212019JPMganChaseBankN.A.SingapeBranchSinBengOng(65)68821623sinbeng.ong@easingwehavesimilarlypenciledinratecutsacrosstheregion(Figure7).Wenotethatregionalcentralbankreactionfunctionstendtobe
14、idiosyncraticwithsomefocusedmeongrowthinflation–ChinaKeaTaiwanMalaysiaSingapeThailwhileIndonesiatendstobesensitivetoexternalconditions(seehereherehere).WithexternaldemslowinginflationtiltedloweroncommoditiestheFednowexpe
15、ctedtocutthisopensroomfboththecyclicallyinflationsensitiveratesensitivecentralbankstoease.ThinkingbeyondthestatusquoexptsubstitutioncapexChinaThecurrentoutlookfregionalgrowthinflationpolicyispremisedonabaselineofstatusqu
16、oinUSChinarelations.ThisbaselineassumesthattheUStariffsof25%on$200billionofimptsfromChinastaythrough2020asdoChina’sretaliatytariffsonUSimpts.Howeverweacknowledgethatthealternativescenarioofanescalationintradetensionsbeyo
17、ndthebaselinescenarioremainsarisk.Thereareseveralramificationsfromanyescalationthefirstwillbethedegreeofsubstitutabilityoftheexptsthatcouldbetargetedunderthesubsequenttrancheoftariffs.Thesecondwilltheregionalspilloversto
18、growthstemmingfromthehittoglobalcapexalsofromanyoffsettingstimulusfromChina.OntheissueofsubstitutionintheeventofanescalationwenotethatthesubstitutabilityofChina’suntariffedexptscouldbelimited.MachineryequipmentdominateCh
19、ina’sshareofuntariffedproducts—butveryfewothereconomiesappeartosupplytheUSwithsimilarmachinesequipment(Figure8).ThusiftheremainderofUSimptsfromChinaareeventuallysubjecttotariffsotherexptersmaynotbeabletoplugthegapimmedia
20、telyconsideringtherelativelylowdegreeofproductoverlapthesubsequentcosttimepotentiallycomplicatedprocessofrelocatingtechsupplychains.Thisimplieslimitedabilityfothereconomiestogainfurthermarketshareinthenearterm—instarkcon
21、trasttotheexperiencetodate.ThisdynamicifrealizedsuggestspainfuladjustmentstocomeincludingthepotentialfhigherendpricesfconsumersoftariffedUSimptsthusweakerdemfromtheUS.Meoveranescalationoftradetensionscouldalsoacceleratet
22、hediversificationofregionalsupplychainsawayfromChina.Whilethiscouldbepositiveoverthemediumtermtheensuingimpactonsentimentcapexisexpectedtoreducegrowthevenmethanbaseline.20100102030201520162017201820192020%ptcontributiont
23、ototal%3m3msaarUS$termsFigure5:EMAXexptsbydestinationSource:NationalsourcesChinaTotalEMAXG3105051015202530VNTWTHKRSGMYIDHKCNPH%1Q19from4Q18US$termsFigure6:USimptsfromEMAsiaSource:USCensus1.000.750.500.250.00INPHUSIDMYKRT
24、HCNTW2019ytdCurrenttoend2019%p.a.cumulativeFigure7:EMAsiaUS2019moarypolicyfecastSource:J.P.Mganfecasts05101520253035CNEUASEANMXCAJPKRTWVehiclesTextilesOthermanufacturedgoodsMachineryequipmentCommodities%shareoftotal1Q18F
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