2023年全國碩士研究生考試考研英語一試題真題（含答案詳解+作文范文）_第1頁
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1、EconomicResearchMay182018GlobalDataWatch?Solidglobalgrowthin1Q18despiteswooninDMgoodssect?Goodsreboundunderwaythoughinflationlaggingriskslinger?EMstressrisingthoughstillcontainedChinasteadyinApril?Next:MayflashPMIs(US0.4

2、EMU0.1Japan0.5)ThemetamacrotailthatwagsthedogWithmostGDPreptsnowinthedustissettlingon1Q18themessageisconsiderablymeupbeatthanthemarketmoodthroughthequartersuggested.GlobalrealGDPlookstohaveexped3.1%annualizedin1Qanimpres

3、siveoutcomethatremainsabout%ptabovepotential(Figure1).Concernshavefocusedonafalteringinthefoundationoflastyear’sremarkablegrowthupswing:thebroadlybasedsharpaccelerationingoodsdemproduction.Globalfinalgoodsdemgrowthnearly

4、stalledlastquarterafterbooming5.1%annualizedin4Q17itsstrongestpaceinsevenyears.Initiallythoughttooweentirelytoaconsumerpullbackmerecentdatasuggestthegoodsslowdownreflectsadecelerationinbusinessequipmentspendingaswell.Att

5、hesametimethesynchronizedupturnbrokedownin1QasgoodsdemproductionactuallyacceleratedintheEMoffsetbyanevensharperslowinginDMgrowth.OutsideofgoodsglobalGDPgrowthlastquarterreflectsanotableresilienceinthenonmanufacturingsect

6、anoutcomethatourglobalsectPMIscrectlysignaled.Thefensicsof1Qhelpsetthestagefthecurrentquarter.OurcallisthatthegoodssectgrowthslowdownintheDMwasonlytemparygiventhestrongfundamentalswithanaddedkickfromUSfiscalstimulus.Assu

7、mingcontinuedresilienceinthenonmanufacturingsectwemaintainthatglobalGDPgrowthwilledgeuptoarobust3.4%thisquarterastheDMeconomiesretaketheirleadershiproleEMgrowtheasesslightly.Theleadingsignalofwhetherourcallinontrackwillc

8、omefromthePMIswithnextweek’sflashMayPMIsfromtheUSEuroareaJapanexpectedtobuildonApril’sfirming(Figure2).whilenewsthisweekshowsJapanstuckinapuzzlingfunkthelatestdatafAprilconfirmthattheglobalgoodssectisperkingupasthisweekb

9、oththeUSChinareptedsolidgainsinretailsalesindustrialproduction.OnbalanceournowcasteristrackingjustabitbelowourfecastfglobalGDPtoadvance3.4%annualizedthisquarterwhileUSdatapointtoatouchofupsiderisk.202461.52.02.53.03.54.0

10、2012201420162018%qqsaarbothscales2Q18fcstboxedFigure1:GlobalGDPDMretailsalesSource:J.P.MganRetailsalesGDP515355575961Jan17Jul17Jan18Jul18DIsaMayflashfcstboxedFigure2:ManufacturingoutputPMISource:J.P.MganJPNUSEMUContentsR

11、econcilingconflictingperspectiveson1Qglobalgrowth15US:Dontfretabouthouseholddebt(yet)17Euroarea:Irishdataareahugesourceofnoise19Mexico:Theweightofinfmality21Australianemploymentgrowth:Ataleoftwosects24Kea:Labmarketslackt

12、omitigateBoKhawkishness26GlobalEconomicOutlookSummary4GlobalCentralBankWatch6Nowcastofglobalgrowth7edrecentresearchfromJ.P.MganEconomics9TheJ.P.MganView:Markets10DataWatchesUnitedStates29Euroarea36Japan40Canada44Mexico46

13、Brazil48Argentina50ColombiaPeru52UnitedKingdom54EmergingEurope56SouthAfricaitsGDPexped6.9%arbasedonourseasonaladjustment.Thisweek’sreptssuggestedrelativelylittlechangeingrowththroughApril.Asalwayswekeyoffofindustrialprod

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