2023年全國碩士研究生考試考研英語一試題真題（含答案詳解+作文范文）_第1頁
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1、Disclosures&DisclaimerThisreptmustbereadwiththedisclosurestheanalystcertificationsintheDisclosureappendixwiththeDisclaimerwhichfmspartofit.Issuerofrept:HSBCSecurities(USA)IncViewHSBCGlobalResearchat::www.research.????THI

2、SCONTENTMAYNOTBEDISTRIBUTEDTOTHEPEOPLESREPUBLICOFCHINA(THE“PRC“)(EXCLUDINGSPECIALADMINISTRATIVEREGIONSOFHONGKONGMACAO)?Globalequityriskrewardimprovedwithselloff.Significantlywseperfmancerequiresrecession.Sentimenthasadju

3、sted?Valuationsarenowbelowaverageearningsgrowthconcernsareoverdone.Marginsresilienttowagestariffs?Nowwith15%toend2019indexfecasts.FocusonUSgrowthvisibilitydownsideprotectionEMcatalystsTheOctoberselloffimprovedtheriskrewa

4、rdfequities.Wehave15%upsidetoourend2019targets.Investsentimentissignallingacontrarianbuyvaluationshavederatedtoattractivelevelswhilsttheearningsoutlookisrobustwebelieveresilienttotradewageconcerns.Wemayhaveseenpeakearnin

5、gsgrowthbutnotpeakearnings.WebelieveIThasbecomeastructuralgrowthratherthancyclicalsect.WeareoverweightUSEmergingMarketsneutralJapancautiousEuropeexUK.WeseeopptunitiesindefensivesectsalongsideITEnergy(seepage18).1)Crectio

6、nhaslargelyrunitscourse:Octobersawthewstmonthlyglobalequitydeclineinfiveyears.Wehaveseentwothirdsofatypicalcrectionbymagnitudeduration.Significantlywseperfmancewouldrequirearecessionwhichwedonotsee.Farfromit.GDPgrowthisf

7、ecastabovetrendearningsatdoubledigit.2)Sentimentsendsasignal:HSBC’scompositeSentimentIndexissendingacontrarianbuysignalnervousnessisalsoevidentintheoptionsmarket.3)Valuationsbelowaverage:Globalequityvaluationshavederated

8、17%YTDtwotimestheannualderatingseenintypicalFedhikingcyclesarenowbelowlongtermaverages.Fwardreturnshavehisticallybeenpositivefromtheselevelswhilststockvaluationdistributionsskewcheapversushisty.Lowequitycrelationsgivediv

9、ersificationopptunities.Table10showscheapstockswithstrongfundamentals.4)Peakgrowthnotpeakearnings:EPSgrowthtoslowto10%nextyearfrom15%this.Thisisconsistentwithoureconomicfecastsmarketshisticallyrisewhenexpectationsaremet.

10、Marketsarepricinginamuchgreatereconomicslowdown.5)Marginsresilienttotariffswages:FurthermarginexpansiondriveshalfofUSfecastearningsgrowththekeytoACWI.Investsarealotmewriedabouttariffsthancompaniesare.Weseeuptoa1ppthittoU

11、SearningsgrowthwithStaplesmostvulnerable.Wageconcernissimilarlywidespreadbutnear60%ofnextyear’sUSearningsgrowthissettocomefromlesssensitiveITEnergysects.6)Techstructuralnotcyclical:ITisdrivingcapexgrowthisbroadeningtooth

12、ers.OurITsectleadindicatisturningupsectsalesvolatilityislow.6November2018BenLaidlerGlobalEquityStrategistHSBCSecurities(USA)Inc.ben.m.laidler@us.12125253460DanielGrosvenEquityStrategistHSBCBankplcdaniel.grosven@442079914

13、246AlastairPinderCFAEquityStrategistHSBCSecurities(USA)Inc.alastair.pinder@us.12125254131EmployedbyanonUSaffiliateofHSBCSecurities(USA)IncisnotregisteredqualifiedpursuanttoFINRAregulationsGlobalEquityStrategyEQUITYSTRATE

14、GYGLOBALStickingtoourguns????3EQUITYSTRATEGY●GLOBAL6November2018SentimenthasturnedcautiousThemoodamongstinvestshasdeteriatedsharplythelastfewweeksprocyclicalconsensuspositionshavebeenscaledback.Signsofthiscautioncanbesee

15、ninthecompositeHSBCSentimentIndexwhichhastouchedlevelsthathavehisticallysignalledacontrarianbuyindicatingareboundmaybeoverdue(t4).FbackgroundseeEquityInsights:Trackingglobalinvestsentiment8April2013.Weakeningsentimenthas

16、alsocoincidedwithinvestswithdrawingUSD9bnfromequityfundsinQ42018sofar.TheredemptionshavebeenpredominantlymadeintheUSEuropewhichpostedcombinedoutflowsofUSD24bn.DevelopedAsiaEmergingMarketshaveregisteredaggregateinflowsofU

17、SD15bninQ42018(seeInvestAllocations:Topdown:Caughtonwrongfoot31October2018).2.CrectionsduringUSrecessionSource:MSCIRefinitivDatastreamHSBCSignsofpessimismamonginvests3.ThedrawdowninEMhasbeenparticularlysharp4.Oursentimen

18、tindicatissuggestingareboundisoverdueSource:MSCIRefinitivDatastreamHSBCSource:MSCIRefinitivDatastreamHSBCAmongtheregionstheselloffinEMequitiesOptionsontheS&P500indicatea10%probabilityofafurther10%fallAverageCretion:31.6%

19、AverageCretion:15.1%Averageduration:85daysAverageduration:339daysMSCIACWIUSRecessionNoUSRecession70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%ACWIUSEUJapanEM1.S.D.AverageCurrentAveragedrawdownsince19901.51.00.50.00.51.0131415161718HSBCsentime

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