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1、5November2018GlobalEquityResearchInvestmentStrategyResearchAnalystsGlobalEquityStrategySTRATEGYrewGarthwaite442078836477rew.garthwaite@creditEquities–WhatneedstogorightMarinaPronina442078836476marina.pronina@creditWehave

2、hadsixpreconditionsofabearmarketbuteachwithaneffectivecounterargument(seeEquities:aclosecall17October)wehaveseenRobertGriffithspartialcapitulation(seeUpdateontacticals31October).Whatneedstogo442078838885robert.griffiths@

3、creditNicolasWylenzekrightfequitiesfromhere■ArecouplingbetweenbondyieldsPMIs:Wehaveseenthelargest442078836480nicolas.wylenzek@creditdecouplingbetweenglobalPMInewders(falling)realbondyields(rising)since2007.TheTIPSyieldha

4、dbeentoolowrelativetotherealFedMengyuanYuan442078880368mengyuan.yuan@creditKartikeyaUpadhyay442078882339Fundsrate(of90bps)especiallywithc$1.4trnofUSTreasurysupplyin2019.Wearenowclosetoourtargetof120bpsonUSTIPS.Indeedifgl

5、obalPMIsarerightUSbondyieldsfall.FthefirsttimesinceMay2007equitieshavefallenwhilebondyieldshaverisen.kartikeya.upadhyay@credit■AlesshawkishFed:FedChairmanPowellscommentsonOctober3rdseemedtohavereversedhispreviouslydovish

6、statementshighlightingthatrateswerealongwaybelowneutral(whileothermembersoftheFedindicatedthatneutralratescouldberevisedupfurther).WedonotbelievethatPowellwillturnhawkish(i.e.thephrase‘gradual’‘datadependency’)unlesswage

7、growthrisesclearlyabove3.5%(cfto2.9%onthewagecomponentoftheECI)thereareclearsignsoffinancialexcess.ThetighteningoffinancialconditionshasdonesomeoftheFed’stighteningfitUSleadindicatsarenowslowing.■FiscaleasinginChina:Chin

8、ahasaccountedf36%ofglobalGDPgrowthsince2010.Demproxiesremaincloseto20yearlowssinceOctobersupplyhasslowed(implyingtherehasbeenaninvoluntaryinventybuild).Chinahaspolicyflexibility.Wehavenotyetseenanaccelerationinmoneysuppl

9、ygrowthprojectapprovalsbutinthepasttwoweekstherehasbeenivefiscaleasing.Meisprobablyrequired.WethinkChinacanalsocontrolcapitalflight(hencemanagetheRMB).■StabilizingglobalPMIs:PMIstendtocrelatecloselytoglobalearningsrevisi

10、ons.WeshowthatequitymarketsareassumingafurthersharpslowdowninrevisionsfurtherfallsinglobalPMIs.WelookfChinaPMIstostabilizeEuropeanPMIstoreboundfromhere.OureconomistslookfamodestaccelerationinglobalIP(ledbynonUS).■Trade:W

11、eexpectadealtoavoida25%UStariffon$200bnofexpts.Factsthatareproblematicappearunlikelytoimprove:■Italy:SeverestructuralproblemsremainbutwedoubtLegaleaderSalviniwouldriskadowngradetojunkthefiscaldeficitcanbefinancedinternal

12、ly.■Excessliquidityisat3.1%consistentwithnoreratingofequities.■Creditspreads:Equitiesarediscountingsignificantlyhigherinvestmentgradespreadsbutwebelieveinvestmentgradespreadswillwiden.■Valuations:USequitiesareonlycheapon

13、ERPbutnotonPEs.DISCLOSUREAPPENDIXATTHEBACKOFTHISREPTCONTAINSIMPTANTDISCLOSURESANALYSTCERTIFICATIONSLEGALENTITYDISCLOSURETHESTATUSOFNONUSANALYSTS.USDisclosure:CreditSuissedoesseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsrese

14、archrepts.AsaresultinvestsshouldbeawarethattheFirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisrept.Investsshouldconsiderthisreptasonlyasinglefactinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.5November20183GlobalEquity

15、StrategyIndicatessentimentmeextendedWhatisneededtostabiliseequitiesSincetheirpeakinJanuarythisyearglobalequitiesaredown14%.ThisisthewstcrectioninglobalequitiessinceMay2015OctobersawthewstmonthlyperfmanceintheSred(dotted)

16、circlesunsuccessfulsignals20%0.025%30%35%Nmalised3mVIXSkew(90110)Average(2sd)Triggerpoints40%Oct13Jun14Feb15Oct15Jun16Feb17Oct17Jun180.51.01.52005200720092011201320152018Source:ThomsonReutersCreditSuisseresearchSource:Th

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